Thread: userque & NUGT/DUST

How do you know if anything is working as frequently as the system changes/upgrades?
Not judging, just asking.


Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...

Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues

How do you know if anything is working as frequently as the system changes/upgrades?


Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...

Good question.

I see what others can't. My data. Plus, I put in a lot of work on this. I recently finished writing some crude code to do a type of backtesting/optimization of a couple of parameters the system uses.

(Regarding data. If the data suggest that an upgrade will make the system more accurate, more often than not upgrading; guess what--I'm upgrading. I'm the only one that sees under the hood. So, I guess, that's how I know. )

What I can't figure out with math, logic, and programming; I do with experiments...like what I'm doing here. But guess what else, I actually figured a way I can 'easily' code full backtesting into the system. But it is, for right now, more work than simply tracking the systems here (forward testing).

I believe I've stated before that no one can trust my system like I can. So in case anyone is 'watching' it, I notify/warn them that something has changed; in case they want to 'watch' it 'differently' for a time.

Gett'n 'er nice and tight so she can properly warn me about the next market crash.

SPREADSHEET UPDATE:
0729151128.png




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DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

GRAPH UPDATE:
0729151129.png

I went ahead and finished the backtesting code! No longer a need to forward test in this thread. I will post the results of the backtests when they are complete. So far, I'm running tests on NUGT/DUST, brute forcing all the possible parameter settings going back 100 days. I'll have to do both the day trading model and a swing trading model (based on a 'slow swing,' 4 days).

Once I have the 100 day 'best parameters;' I may do 200 days, or I may start on TNA/TZA first. I would love to jump to backtesting all of the history I have--all at once, but due to the complexity of the spreadsheet, that would take a few days at least for the code to complete, I'm guessing. In the meantime, I do need parameters to trade with--so I'm gradually ramping up the number of days. The more days/history, the more realistic/reliable the results.

Even after testing NUGT/DUST and TNA/TZA, I plan to keep testing other pairs looking for 'the most profitable set' for my machine.

But at least for now, I still plan to post my NUGT/DUST basic calls.

Q,

Any calls on NUGT/DUST for this morning?

FOR 07-30-15 AT OPEN

HOLD NUGT

Originally Posted by Steiner

Q,

Any calls on NUGT/DUST for this morning?

Today is filled with uncertainty with my systems. There is a slight bias to the upside for being long the open. But the upside is very small to the downside risk.

Right now, I'm going to stay long, but may bail to DUST if it starts to get ugly.

The 'smart' move might be going to cash.

The poker move would be to go short and play the risk/reward ratio.

I'll consider the CLOSE later.




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

FOR 07-30-15 AT 09:35

ENTERED DUST




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

FOR 07-30-15 AT "OPEN..." 09:35

Exit NUGT at 3.32
Enter DUST at 35.75

FOR 07-30-15 AT CLOSE

HOLD DUST

(Forecast so far is to hold until Monday.)




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

FOR 07-31-15

HOLD DUST AT OPEN
HOLD DUST AT CLOSE




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.