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Thread: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

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    EmoDx's Avatar
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    Default What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

    I predict .75% average over September and October 2011. QE2 Has yet to be unwound. The FED has pledged to keep yields low until 2013. Treasuries will continue to be a flight to security for the time being. Also, check out the chart I compiled.

    Month Return Month Return
    Sep. 2004 0.26 Oct. 2004 0.83
    Sep. 2005 -1.07 Oct. 2005 -0.81
    Sep. 2006 0.89 Oct. 2006 0.67
    Sep. 2007 0.75 Oct. 2007 0.96
    Sep. 2008 -1.47 Oct. 2008 -2.18
    Sep. 2009 1.1 Oct. 2009 0.39
    Sep. 2010 0.06 Oct. 2010 0.31
    Avg. 0.07 Avg. 0.02
    Avg. Positive Months 0.612 Avg. Positive Months 0.632


    That's my 2 cents. I am 95% in F fund until we shake out September's remaining volatility.

    -E


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    Happy_Trails's Avatar
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    Default Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

    I am kinda thinking we get a repeat of August this month in bonds. Your prediction for October sounds about right. I expect a lot of volatility this month, both bonds and stocks. I don't think it will be a smooth ride in either.

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    Default Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

    All I know is we got screwed on FV today!
    Personal Investment Performance for the past 12 months ending 10/31/2014 is 11.30%
    dreams come slow and they go fast - passenger

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    Default Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

    Does anyone know what the percentage of AGG that is owned by the F fund? Just curious. Anyways, my post is about Operation Twist. Operation Twist is going to lower our G fund returns a good bit more than they re right now. That being said, I think a lot of money will b squeezed out of short term trasuries and make it into other high grade debt that actually returns something.

    I think this will make AGG look attractive, especially now that the AGG prices retreat a little with the spike in equities. If you get ahead of the FED we could see a nice monthly return in bonds. The question is when to get out. This Greek debt thing is getting a little unnerving. While the market rallied today with the news out of Europe. I think it is a set up for a huge drop only for the mega rich to get back in for the exchange of wealth.

    -Emo

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    Default Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

    Bonds have always given me the woolies - stick with the large cap C fund and I fund for further gains. We could easily bust right up through the recent bear flag and turn it into a bear head fake.

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