What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

**EmoDx** · 09-04-2011, 10:45 AM

I predict .75% average over September and October 2011. QE2 Has yet to be unwound. The FED has pledged to keep yields low until 2013. Treasuries will continue to be a flight to security for the time being. Also, check out the chart I compiled.

Month	Return	Month	Return
Sep. 2004	0.26	Oct. 2004	0.83
Sep. 2005	-1.07	Oct. 2005	-0.81
Sep. 2006	0.89	Oct. 2006	0.67
Sep. 2007	0.75	Oct. 2007	0.96
Sep. 2008	-1.47	Oct. 2008	-2.18
Sep. 2009	1.1	Oct. 2009	0.39
Sep. 2010	0.06	Oct. 2010	0.31

Avg.	0.07	Avg.	0.02
Avg. Positive Months	0.612	Avg. Positive Months	0.632

That's my 2 cents. I am 95% in F fund until we shake out September's remaining volatility.

-E

**Happy_Trails** · 09-04-2011, 12:12 PM

I am kinda thinking we get a repeat of August this month in bonds. Your prediction for October sounds about right. I expect a lot of volatility this month, both bonds and stocks. I don't think it will be a smooth ride in either.

**jpcavin** · 09-06-2011, 06:39 PM

All I know is we got screwed on FV today!

**EmoDx** · 09-26-2011, 03:05 PM

Does anyone know what the percentage of AGG that is owned by the F fund? Just curious. Anyways, my post is about Operation Twist. Operation Twist is going to lower our G fund returns a good bit more than they re right now. That being said, I think a lot of money will b squeezed out of short term trasuries and make it into other high grade debt that actually returns something.

I think this will make AGG look attractive, especially now that the AGG prices retreat a little with the spike in equities. If you get ahead of the FED we could see a nice monthly return in bonds. The question is when to get out. This Greek debt thing is getting a little unnerving. While the market rallied today with the news out of Europe. I think it is a set up for a huge drop only for the mega rich to get back in for the exchange of wealth.

-Emo

**Birchtree** · 09-26-2011, 03:11 PM

Bonds have always given me the woolies - stick with the large cap C fund and I fund for further gains. We could easily bust right up through the recent bear flag and turn it into a bear head fake.