Thread: F Fund

Just looking at $TNX, the F fund is primed. Tomorrow's housing news could be the trigger. I'm going to seriously the F fund for tomorow.

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

Just looking at $TNX, the F fund is primed. Tomorrow's housing news could be the trigger. I'm going to seriously the F fund for tomorow.

F fund is range bound with the AGG resting on support and the 10yr T against resistence. The play recently had been to buy with the 10y T above 4.70 and sell when they get near 4.60. With CPI out of the way, the next big news will deal with housing. I concur with you that this may be one of the few times where alittle money can be put into the F fund for a short play. Also if 12% is right about this afternoon going red, there might be a move into defensive bonds ths afternoon until this China situation is taken care of.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...GkU&refer=bond

Treasuries Little Changed on Less-Than-Forecast Price Increase

By Annie Pinkert and Kim-Mai Cutler

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries were little changed after a government report showed April consumer prices increased less than economists forecast.

Yields dipped for the first day in three on speculation that inflation pressures may have peaked, leaving the Federal Reserve room to hold rates steady. Fed policy makers held borrowing costs at 5 1/4 percent for the eighth time at a policy meeting last week, saying inflation remains the ``predominant'' economic risk.

``The numbers were better than what the market was fearing,'' said Theodore Ake, head of U.S. government bond trading in New York at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. ``The Fed's going to be in a box for awhile, and that's going to foster range-trading.''

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ET...=on&z=m&q=l&c=

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/adv...s.asp?symb=AGG

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

Just looking at $TNX, the F fund is primed. Tomorrow's housing news could be the trigger. I'm going to seriously the F fund for tomorow.

The bond action today is curious. CPI comes in lower than expected, and there are continued signs of a slowdown in the economy, yet bond yields are up again today.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

The bond action today is curious. CPI comes in lower than expected, and there are continued signs of a slowdown in the economy, yet bond yields are up again today.

I was thinking the same thing Tom. There is a better chance that the FED may lower rates and no effect on Bonds? I almost went to the "F" fund for tomorrow but changed my mind when I saw no response from the AGG. Strange

Bond Ticker...from Yahoo Finance

3:48 pm - Trade Needs Some Motivation : The market did a whole lot of nothing today, inching higher, slipping back, then just pivoting around unchanged even as there was a batch of relevant (although conflicting) data. The session was a wash, with ranges established very early & remaining stubbornly in place all day. The motion in global bonds had some baring on trade, as EuroBonds fell off on inflation worries. The ranges have been unforgiving & the market should be pent-up & poised to bring some drama, although Thurs not the likely day. The curve was also grinding in place, with the 2-10-yr yield spread heading out -2.6. The buck got back some ground with short-covering helping, along with the positive side of the day's data, moving against the yen to the best levels since the late-Feb market upheaval. Gold took a hit as the dollar took a bid with the spot metal now 662.35 (-9.70). Crude got hit as well on lessening supply concerns but had recovered some late in the day heading out at 62.55 (-0.62). Data will have to be well off the mark to get a much going, but one good, solid negative report would likely hit bonds fairly hard. The data due are initial jobless claims, leading indicators & Philly Fed. Ex-Fed-master, newly minted PIMCO mentor, Greenspan speaks at a conference in Atlanta, while Moskow & Bernanke will speak in Chicago.

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/marke...01/bond_ticker


I found the line ...." The ranges have been unforgiving & the market should be pent-up & poised to bring some drama, although Thurs not the likely day."..interesting.


For those who are into candlesticks. The AGG has held support at 99.75 with buyers in control yesterday. I noticed the last three days is similiar to a pattern in the AGG chart for Mar 9-13, then there was a steady uptrend. At the same time the S&P started to go sideways. Then on Mar 27th, the S&P fell off and the AGG started going sideways working into a steady downtrend, probably as buyers moved back into stocks. The point is, in hindsight you can see a rotation into bonds a week before the big sell off. Anyway, just something else to watch for.

The AGG looked pretty bad today, but looking at a wider picture. The low on monday was 99.76; on tuesday the low was 99.75; the AGG opened yesterday at 99.75 and its low was 99.7 but ended up closing at 99.91; and today after a low of 99.67, it ended up closing at 99.74, giving us a long shadow candlestick. In this case, " candlesticks with long lower shadows and short upper shadows indicate that sellers dominated during the session and drove prices lower. However, buyers later resurfaced to bid prices higher by the end of the session and the strong close created a long lower shadow."

Yesterday, we had a long white candlestick body.

" Long white candlesticks show strong buying pressure. The longer the white candlestick is, the further the close is above the open. This indicates that prices advanced significantly from open to close and buyers were aggressive. While long white candlesticks are generally bullish, much depends on their position within the broader technical picture. After extended declines, long white candlesticks can mark a potential turning point or support level. "

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quo...&optstyle=1013

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...o_candlesticks

I expected to see something like this tonight....


U.S. Notes May Gain as Yields at One-Month High Spur Demand

By Wes Goodman

May 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes may rise for the first time in six days on speculation 10-year yields at their highest in a month will attract some investors.

The yield climbed to 4.76 percent yesterday, a level seen only three times in the past three months. Investors from Asia have tended to increase purchases as the yield approached 4.75 percent over the past few days, said Adam MacKillop, a U.S. fixed-income trader at Barclays Capital Japan Ltd. in Tokyo.

``As we get to the cheap end of the recent range, there is a lot of anticipation by dealers of money coming from this region,'' MacKillop said.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.75 percent at 11:26 a.m. in Singapore, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4.5 percent security due in May 2017 rose 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 98 2/32.

Yields, which move in the opposite direction to prices, rose yesterday in New York trading as signs of a strengthening in the economy eroded speculation the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs this year. The 10-year yield gained 8 basis points this week, the most since the start of April.

UBS AG, Europe's largest bank by assets, revised its forecast for the Fed and expects the central bank to start a series of rate cuts in August instead of June, according to a research report from the firm today.

UBS, Pimco

Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said he had made a ``mistake'' in forecasting the central bank would start trimming borrowing costs by now, he said yesterday. Gross, who is chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, is sticking to his call that the Fed will lower borrowing costs this year.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers have held their target for overnight bank lending at 5.25 percent since June, the highest in six years.

Takashi Furui, who helps run Japan's second-biggest bond fund at Daiwa Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, said a slowing in U.S. growth that brought the pace of expansion to the lowest in four years will curb inflation.

Furui started extending the duration of his U.S. holdings in May and plans to do more, predicting the 10-year yield will fall to 4.2 percent by year-end. Duration measures a portfolio's sensitivity to changes in interest rates, and a bigger number indicates a more bullish position.

The U.S. inflation rate, which was 2.3 percent in April as measured by consumer prices excluding food and energy costs, is poised to come down, he said.

``Inflation will fall to 2 percent by the end of this year,'' said Furui, one of the managers for the $14.5 billion Daiwa Global Bond Fund, the biggest in Japan after the Kokusai Global Sovereign Open fund in Tokyo. ``The economy is gradually slowing.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net ;

Last Updated: May 17, 2007 23:28 EDT


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...ssA&refer=bond

Relative Strength

The so-called relative strength index for the 10-year note futures contract over a nine-day period, on a scale of 0 to 100, fell below 30 yesterday for the first time since April 13. Readings below 30 indicate notes are ``oversold'' and likely to rise, while readings above 70 indicate they are ``overbought'' and likely to fall.

The 10-year yield closed at a two-month high of 4.76 percent on April 13 and declined more than 10 basis points over the next three days.

To contact the reporters on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net ; Annie Pinkert in New York at apinkert@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...76Q&refer=bond

Wow, bonds are getting hit again today. Stocks will benefit from a Fed rate cut but I think bonds are getting oversold and are a good buy over G fund for the next month.

Glass half full, attitude.

The AGG finished the day with a long black candlestick.

"After a long decline a long black candlestick can indicate panic or capitulation."

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...o_candlesticks

Also, the VIX finished at a support line. If it moves up monday that may be a negative to sideway action for stocks. But if it breaks through to the downside, stocks will look good for a while longer.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/adv...s.asp?symb=VIX

The "F" Fund,,,,,don't you just love it? Like a fickle woman!!!!!!!