Thread: Direction of F Fund ?

You may see a short term dead cat bounce but the Fed is on the verge of raising interest rates. I don't think I would messwith the F fund right now.

JMO, :v
Tom

Thanks TOM for YO info on F fund!

GTO

HiAll:


Have a question about the F fund. Went back to 1995 Historical Rates and saw that the F fund Annual Return for that year was 18.31. Is that because the I Fund was not introduced back then? Also is the HAR 18.31 in % or $.For the month of April of 1995 the F Fund was 1.38. The lowest month of 1995 was July –(0.23) and heist was Feb at 2.38. Was just thinking if the F Fund will do the same this year 2005?


Did not check to see if Feds had raised interest rates doing that time or not, wouldn’t know where to look.

Thanks swsop.

It's because interest rates were falling.They ain't fallin anytime soon, dear. Buckle your safety belt. We're in for a rocky interest rate ride. I'd only be interested in the F fund right now if we could short it..

saraho wrote:

It's because interest rates were falling.They ain't fallin anytime soon, dear. Buckle your safety belt. We're in for a rocky interest rate ride. I'd only be interested in the F fund right now if we could short it..

Thanks. This is why Ilike thissite:^

swsop

Not too soon swsop, you know what they say, go against the masses. Rising interest rates where "suppose" to be bad for the S fund last year also.

Good morning all:

A former poster explained to me when asks about the F fund. He said that when the C is falling the F fund sometime will rise. Also on one finance channel I forget which onethey weretalking about having bonds in your portfolio and that’s what got me to thinking for the short term with my Tsp. What the Heck it didn’t hurt, but it should did take away some of the pain. Well I have been 80% invested in the F fund since Jan 10, 2005. On Jan 10^th made an interfund transfer from 25%G, 10%C, 50%S and 15%I to 20%G and 80%F to be affective at COB. That’swhere I stayed until Jan 20^th when I made another transferto 75G and 25C at COB, following Saraho’s new allocations. I have seen lots of informational post about the F fund so I kind of took a chance on it and it paid off. But as my mother would say god bless her soul “A little equals a lot and that some is better then none�.

SWSOP

tsptorture wrote:

Not too soon swsop, you know what they say, go against the masses. Rising interest rates where "suppose" to be bad for the S fund last year also.

They would have been had they climbed more and been coming up from a higher low point. However, since the overnight lending rate was slashed all the way down to 1%(an all-time low!), and since the Feds only bumped it a quarter point per meeting in the 2nd half of the year, the rising rates never took a bite out of small caps.

This year's rate hikes could be more aggressive, and they are starting at a higher point than last year, so things will probably play out a bit differently. If I had to guess, I'd say part of the reason why the S plunged so badly to start the year is that fund managersstarted dumpinghuge chunks of their small cap holdings in favor of the blue chips (or maybe even cash holdings). They know interest rates are probably going to rise considerably this year, and they also know what effect (negative) that has on small companies. So, they engaged in profit-taking, leaving us where we're at now. Again, this is just speculation, but I'd bet that I'm right.

I'd bet that you're dead wrong regarding the blue chips. If what you said was true (buying blue chips), then we should have seen a significant bounce in the C fund. Instead, this has been "profit-taking" across the board albeit mostly in the small caps. Thishas occurred in a traditionally strong small cap month. If you're a fund manager and you see interest rates rising, why take the risk of investing in stocks when you have a sure thing that is going to give youmore than 1%?

Besides the interest rate play, thus far this year, there has been significant interestagain in the energy sector (probably due in part to the cold wave) andin junior metal companies.If inflation starts to really catch hold, asmany are assuming it already has (myself included) then the dollar will again start to drop and the metals rise, despite thecontinuing rise ininterest rates.

Sitting in G fund againhas me feelingI am back where Iwas when I found this site and got started moving out. Then I find the market is changing its directions.What I gained since first of Dec, I have given back. I certainly don't have the Midas Touch, and could even nuture the thought I caused the slump for everyone else by joining up here!:P

Only a few have mentioned using F, some a whole lot, others just some. I would like to feel I am making some progress in these months before retirement, but don't want to move just because of hyperactivity-ness. I had some in F, then at the last minute moved it out the end of the week. Since then I see others have gone in, so unless I hear some Real `Oh No' s, I will replace it Monday before noon.

Thanx -

Yeah I hear you! Had money Dec. 30th then lost ever since!! Should have moved much sooner; listened to too many people who thought the New Year would come out swinging! Now back to Nov. money and trying to hold it with 50% G and F.