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Thread: Ocean's ETF Blog

  1. #1

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    Default Ocean's ETF Blog

    Hi,

    Merry Christmas everyone. After a year off from this forum, I am coming back, sort of. Glad to see Tom is running the Autotracker smoothly and a lot of members are doing real good this year.

    As for my TSP, I am hanging in there with some gains this year with no complain. I have been more conservative than the last few years because of my retirement is near.

    A year or so ago I started simulating the futures and commodities short-term trading using Tradestation, the results at the end was not satisfied and I pretty much gave up on it. Instead I have been studying the longer term investment using Simple Moving Averages with information I found online. With 6 months of testing, I am pretty happy with what I found and I have been tweaking here and there on the simulation and the results are to my satisfactory.

    About a month ago, I was bold enough to start my own blog to document my call. Tom is kind enough to give me permission to link my blog under my signature here and post the link in his home page. Thank you Tom. The blog basically concentrates in ETFs and TSP equivalent ETFs. I will use this thread to talk about some of the my ETF activities also. Wish you all a happy holiday season.

    Thanks
    Ocean


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  3. #2

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    Default Re: ETF Talk Forum

    Look at what the cat drug in! Merry Christmas Ocean! I will be visiting.

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  5. #3

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    Default Re: ETF Talk Forum

    Hi Show-me,

    Hope everything is well.

    BTW: the blog is: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

    Thanks
    Ocean
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  7. #4

    Default Re: ETF Talk Forum

    Good to see you again ocean! Best of luck with your blog!
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #5

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    Default Re: ETF Talk Forum

    Great to hear from you again Ocean, your Tracker is purring like a kitten. Best of luck with your Blog.
    Norman



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  11. #6

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    Default Re: ETF Talk Forum

    Thanks Tom and Norman.

    Basically my strategy is based on the weekly Simple Moving Averages (SMA) with cross-over action. The cross-over moving average signals are SMA-4 and SMA-39. When SMA-4 crosses above SMA-39, it's a up trend and it is a buy. When SMA-4 crosses below SMA-39, it is a down trend and therefore it is a sell. I also use SMA-18 and other indicators such as MACD, RSI, ADX, Bollinger Band for additional confirmation. This simple or similar technique has been documented with success in various online sites.

    In OceanPortfolio, there are 5 ETFs which I like. If the trend continues to hold while the SMA-4 is higher than SMA-39 on the weekly chart, these ETFs should yield some good returns.

    The 5 ETFs are:

    1. EFA : $55.57 (as 12/24 closed)
    2. EWY: $47.30
    3. EWZ: $73.79
    4. FXI: $42.35
    5. ILF: $47.41

    Note: EFA is equivalent to the the TSP I fund
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  13. #7

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    Default Re: ETF Talk Forum

    Wish you all a Happy, Prosperous, Successful and Healthy New Year.

    Starting off a new year 2010 this morning and having a fresh cup of coffee after a late night New Year Eve party, I am sitting in front of my computer and wondering how many of those top endoments invested in ETFs. It comes to my mine that there are two sites 1) Alphaclone.com and 2) StockPickr.com that I know published these information which these sources are publicly available.

    After some searches, here are my finding: The trend of the top Ivy League schools are heavily invested in ETFs and carrying the similar position into 2010. According to their track records, these school all had their fantastic performances in the past except 2008. In 2009, schools with top endowments such as Yale University, Harvard University, MIT, University of Texas and Standford University which they had more than 20, 30, 40, 50 and even 60% returns on their portfolios. Harvard University took the lead and resulted with 65% returns in 2009.

    You may wonder what investments they had invested in 2009 and the answer is ETF. Not only they invested in ETFs but they focused in the selective markets such as Emerging Market, International Market, Country specific and Major Market Index fund.

    Here are some of the most popular ETFs that are still being held by the top endowment management.

    1. EFA
    2. VWO
    3. EEM
    4. EWZ
    5. FXI
    6. EWY
    7. SPY
    8. OEF

    To my surprise, my simulated Ocean Portfolio contains 4 out 5 of these ETFs that I am tracking. Let's see how these ETFs will play out in 2010.
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  15. #8

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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    Although my Ocean Portfolio is based on the technical analysis, occasionally I do look at how the fundamentalists think about the stock markets. Apparently there are still opportunities in the Emerging Markets. Here is an article published (Jan 10, 2010) in SeekingAlpha.com by Hao Jin who is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Management Account (CMA).

    "Forbes’s Fundamental Opportunity Index is based on the idea of value investing: buying underpriced, fundamentally sound stocks. Many people believe that emerging markets, which were up more than 70% in 2009, are likely to pull back, or at least take a breather in 2010. Nonetheless, there are still opportunities in those markets.

    The most popular ETF to provide emerging markets diversification is iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM), which provides investment results that correspond to publicly traded securities in emerging markets.

    However, investors (especially people near retirement) face two main financial concerns – longevity risk and inflation. In order to boost your overall returns, emerging markets should remain 10%-20% of your long term portfolio."

    For a full story of the article, here is the link:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1817...erging-markets
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  17. #9

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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    DOW had one day dropped of 100.90 points and S&P500 gave up 12.43 points on Jan 15. Given the DOW had reached the highest level since Oct 2008, its momentum is still trending upward and it is not a big factor at the point we should worry yet as it showed on the weekly moving average charts.

    As for my simulated Traders Pick portfolio, the daily chart for FCX showed sign of weakness but it did not reach the selling point yet (as showed in the chart). Once the MA-4 touches the MA-18, I will sell it and look for another opportunity to get back in.

    I found some of the ETFs can be traded using daily charts with MA-4, MA-18 and MA-39 moving averages and crossover signals. These ETFs tend to stay in one direction longer. Using these moving averages and crossover signals really work well for these selected ETFs, but there are some ETFs, actually more ETFs don't work well by using these daily signals.

    ETFs that I found which work well from the TradeStation platform back-testing are:

    1. EWY
    2. EWZ
    3. FCX
    4. ILF

    Signals will not work for ETFs are:
    1. SPY
    2. QQQQ
    3. GLD
    4. XLK
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com


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  19. #10

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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    What is Moving Average Crossover Index (MACI) ? You may say that you'd never heard of it. You are correct that the MACI term does not exist even I tried to google it. I guess I just made it up and created a new acronym.

    My definition of MACI is the as follow:

    MACI = (FastMA - SlowMA) / SlowMA * 100

    Example:

    Let's use FCX with the daily chart and identify the numbers of the simple moving averages at the closed of Jan 15, 2009 using MA-4 (4 days) and MA-39 (39 days).

    The numbers are: MA-4 = 85.08, and MA-39 = 83.34.

    Then use these numbers and plug in the follow MACI equation I created it (I am sure other people have been using this method and nothing is new)

    MACI = (MA4 - MA39) / MA39 * 100

    maci = (85.08 - 82.15) / 82.15 * 100
    maci = 3.56

    During the trending market, the higher the number of MACI, the trendier the underline equity will be (in theory and nothing is guaranteed). If I can only select one equity over the other, I would pick the one with higher MACI and continue to monitor its trend.

    There are two ETFs currently with its MACI is much higher than FCX. These are TUR and ECH and its MACI are 10.81 and 9.53 respectively. On my simulated Traders Pick portfolio, I will replace FCX with either one of these two ETFs tomorrow (Jan 19, 2010) at the closed the market and see how it will play out.
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  21. #11

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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    This week had been tough for the major markets. S&P 500 dropped more than 44 points from 1136.03 to 1091.76 with a 3.9% loss this week. The emerging markets dropped even more. Some of the ETFs in the Ocean Portfolio had been stopped out with a 8% stop.

    Normally the Ocean Portfolio will take the signal at the end of the week with the weekly chart but I took the stops with the daily signal seeing that the downward momentum on these ETFs were stronger such as EWZ. EFA is also near the trailing stop price and will see how it plays out. Current holdings are: EFA, EWY and TUR.
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    Thanks Ocean, it's great to have you posting more often
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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