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Thread: Ocean's ETF Blog

  1. #13
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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    Thanks JTH.

    Both Emerging Markets and International ETFs got hit pretty hard and hit its 8% stop loss from its entry from my Ocean Portfolio. The EFA weekly moving average MA-4 crossed below MA-18 and is approaching MA-39. EWY MA-4 is approaching its MA-18. As of Jan 29, both ETFs were stopped out based on the 8% trailing stop.

    Currently only TUR with 20% of the Ocean Portfolio is still on hold and the remaining 80% is in cash. I will continue to observe these moving average charts to determine what my next move will be.

    The TSP portfolio suffered the same way that EFA is stopped out and I replaced it with 100% AGG.

    Traders Pick still holds 100% TUR as of now.
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  3. #14
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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    It's been a pretty tough 2 weeks for the Ocean, TSP and Traders Pick Portfolios. All selected ETFs finally hit the protective stop loss targets and were sold out. The Ocean Portfolio is in 100% cash now but after a total loss of 9.14% when I began tracking on 12/11/2009. The other two portfolios were not doing that well either. But with stop loss already established, the damage could be control in a reasonable manner.

    The TSP portfolio lost 5.39% and it is now 100% in AGG (F fund).

    Well, I will wait for the next entry point to get back in. It really doesn't matter either it's a Long or Short as long as the trend is established noticeably with the moving averages. Have a nice and safe weekend. (It is snowing heavily outside now - New Jersey and nearby states),
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  5. #15
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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    The major indexes had some gains this week as the DOW rose 0.9%, the NASDAQ rose 2% and the S&P 500 made 0.9%. The gains were not much but at least it stopped the prices from falling as it was in the last few weeks.

    I looked at the weekly charts and found that there are few ETFs which may be a potential buy as a long position in the Ocean Portfolio. These are EWZ, ILF and EFA.

    EWZ and ILF are closed above the weekly moving average MA-39 with the MA-4 is above MA-39 and the EFA is also approaching it. To determine the right time to re-enter as the long position, I basically use MACD, RSI and other filters to confirm my entry point. As for now, these three ETFs will be on the close watch list.

    Link for EWZ weekly chart from StockCharts.com

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EWZ...d=p38757782269

    Ocean
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  7. #16
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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    The weekly moving average cross-over had triggered a buy (long) signal on the Ocean Portfolio. Here are the new positions for 4 ETFs at the market closed today:

    1. EWZ
    2. ILF
    3. FCX
    4. KOL

    I am watching the EFA chart for its entry on the TSP retirement system. When it triggers, I will replace the AGG with EFA.

    The inverse SH on the Trader's Pick portfolio was sold with a loss as I anticipated the market may move higher from this point. The desired ETFs that I am watching have not been triggered yet. The watch list included:

    1. EFA
    2. EWZ
    3. ILF
    4. FXI
    5. TUR
    6. EWY
    7. ECH
    8. EEM

    Link for ILF Weekly chart from StockCharts.com

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ILF...d=p38757782269

    Ocean
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  9. #17
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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    Mark Mobius is known as a legend in the emerging markets investment and he has spent over 30 years in Asia continued seeking every opportunity in investing in this area. I recently found that he has an active blog and it is worth to mention for those of you are interested. The link is http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.com/

    One of his blog stated that he believed it needed to be optimistic in investing in the emerging markets and the personal qualities are the building for good investing.

    "In emerging markets investment, I believe it is necessary to be optimistic. While one can certainly learn numerous technical skills that help in making investments or managing a portfolio, a large percentage of investing is still psychological. Both buyers and sellers act on a combination of instinct, information and logic. The development of certain personal characteristics could play a key role in contributing to your investment success."

    Click here for the full story: http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton...ting/#more-555
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  11. #18
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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    The moving average signals showed upward trends on both the daily and weekly charts. Sold all AGG and replaced with EFA and IWM with 50% each on March 5.
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com


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  13. #19
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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    The general markets regained its momentum and is moving upward. The SPY (S&P 500) weekly moving average 4-WMA reversed up and crossed above 18-WMA and it is well above 39-WMA.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY...d=p36431218549

    Both RSI and MACD showed the similar effects that both indicators are tilting up. Some guru market analysts' worried that the markets may be heading down with big correction from the recent run up since March last year. May be they are right, I really don't know. As the trend follower using mainly the moving averages and confirmation filters, I will let the charts tell me otherwise. Currently, all my simulated portfolios are 100% fully invested. I will see how it plays out.
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    The trend is still up and the month of April is historically good for stocks. All 3 simulated portfolios are still long.
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  17. #21
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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    Sold the current position and took some small profits anticipating some small pull backs. Will go long again soon.
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  19. #22
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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    After a slight pulled back, the markets regained its strength and continued to move upward. All 3 simulated portfolios are now fully invested.
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  21. #23
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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    Despite the recent drop of the markets, I continue to hold the current position of all three simulated portfolios.
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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  23. #24
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    Default Re: Ocean's ETF Blog

    The market trends began to switch downward. I will liquidate all long positions in 3 simulated portfolios today and look for the short entry in the Ocean and Trader's portfolios. As in TSP portfolio, I will initiate a AGG buy.
    Ocean ETF Portfolio Blog: http://oceanportfolio.blogspot.com

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