View RSS Feed

TSP Talk Blog

Weak GDP, but stocks battle back

Rate this Entry

Stocks were basically flat on Thursday but the action was a little more bullish than that since the Dow, which gave up 5-points, was down over 100-points early on after a weaker than expect GDP report was released before the market opened.. Buyers stepped up and we saw some positive reversals on the charts.

Daily TSP Funds Return

The I-fund lagged as the dollar was up, while the S-fund finally outperformed, and bonds were up slightly.


The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) opened lower but slowly crawled higher all day to close just north of the break-even mark. It has closed back above the 50-day EMA for 2 days so for now, it doesn't look bad.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) led the way yesterday and now we're just waiting to see if the 200-day EMA is going to provide the support that it has all this year. It is trying to make a bottom here but August and September are two of the weakest months of the year historically so it has its work cut out for it.



Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Dow Transportation Index was flat but it had been down about 1% in early trading on Tuesday. The strong close gives it a positive reversal day as it tries to push its way up the 200-day EMA, which could be a tough nut to crack.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


The
EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) was off slightly and the strong dollar didn't help. It is stuck between the 200 and 50-day EMA's at the moment with open gaps on each side. In the short-term this could go either way but resistance is falling and the dollar has been in an uptrend so it is kind of swimming against the current at the moment.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Here's the problem with August... Historically (between 1950 an 2011) only September has produced a worse average return, and it is only positive about 55% of the time. Compare that to the best month, December, which is up about 75% of the time.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was flat again as it has hung around the descending resistance line. It has closed above the 50-day EMA for a 6th straight day, which is interesting, so the bond bears aren't putting too much pressure on them despite stocks rallying.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


R
ead more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

Submit "Weak GDP, but stocks battle back" to Digg Submit "Weak GDP, but stocks battle back" to del.icio.us Submit "Weak GDP, but stocks battle back" to StumbleUpon Submit "Weak GDP, but stocks battle back" to Google

Comments

  1. userque's Avatar
    Thanks for this post.

    Just two observations:

    Regarding the DWCPF chart. The earlier breaches of the 200 day occurred while it was 'cup-up.' The latest breach happened while the 200 day was cup-down. I haven't researched this, but maybe it is relevant.?

    Looking at your S&P 500 Avg. Return by Month chart, should the famous saying be "Sell in July..." instead of "Sell in May...?" :blink:

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes