TSP Talk Blog

It was a positive day for the stock market on Monday but the highs came within the first 30 minutes of trading and then the enthusiasm waned. We still saw modest gains across the board by the close with the Dow gaining 46-points and the S&P 500 flirting with a new closing high, but more negative reversals on the charts keep the bulls from being able to celebrate these levels.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The S-fund led on the upside and the I-fund gave us a small gain despite the 0.26% loss in the EAFE Index. I'm not seeing that they made up for the big disparity we saw on Friday, but I don't know what's going on. emailing me about it doesn't help since I have no idea what they are doing. You'll need to contact the TSP folks directly if you want to know how they came up with their prices.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) gapped up and if you want to give partial credit to Monday's grade, it did make its third highest closing price ever, and it did close back above that resistance line that we have been watching. The open gap looks certain to get filled with the negative reversal close, but the bottom of that gap could act as support if the bulls are still willing to step up. Something is going to have to give soon as the rising support is being pushed up toward the horizontal resistance.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) had a nice day and managed to close back above the 50-day EMA for the first time since last Thursday's sell-off in small caps. That was only 2 closes below the 50-day EMA so it was an unconfirmed breakdown.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

This is from www.sentimentrader.com on small caps:



The Transports continue to struggle and it is looking more and more like it wants to form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. There was a big negative reversal bar created after the 50-day EMA was tested and failed.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) remains in the rising wedge, and even though the EFA was down 0.10%, we expected the TSP to give us something "extra" today since TSP'ers were short-changed with Friday's price, and we did see a 0.08% gain.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (bonds / F-fund) are still sliding lower. The F-fund may be in big trouble, although we know nothing goes straight down.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.