TSP Talk Blog

The futures were down very sharply on Sunday night, but it didn't take the bulls long to jump on the lower prices. Stocks quickly came back to the break-even level and the Dow ended the day slightly higher. Small caps outperformed and the I-fund also had a good day.

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The issues in Europe are having an impact on stocks, but not for very long. The bulls continue to buy the dips, a theme we saw over and over in 2014.

There was almost a holiday feel to yesterday's trading with light volume and a positive bias. Volume was light because of the winter storm warning that sent sent many on Wall Street home early. That should continue today.

A 2-day FOMC meeting begins today. The policy statement is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon so the we could get some leaks that would be a catalysts for stocks, but the tentativeness in front of the statement along with the storm could make it another low volume day.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) opened lower but it maintained its recent rising short-term trading channel. There's not too much more to it than that. We've talked about the right shoulder being formed so often that I think you all know where that stands.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) moved above that key 1058 area and it is now flirting with the December highs, which turned out to be a failed breakout. A light volume breakout isn't overly impressive, but it is what it is, which is a chart nearly at new all-time highs.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The tech heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was one of the few major indices that closed in negative territory yesterday, and as I write this Monday night, the futures are down a few points after Microsoft announced a less than exciting earnings report.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index rebounded nicely from Friday's sell-off, and it is a little too early to tell if we are seeing a lower high being formed, which would be bearish, or a possible bull flag, which would be bullish.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) continues its bear market rally and it is testing some overhead resistance now. Keep an eye on Germany's DAX, which has been running up to new highs for the last week. If the other European markets can follow, the bear market could be ending for the I-fund, but it's not quite there yet.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) looks to be in a bull flag and nearly broke out on Monday morning, but bonds retreated when stocks recovered.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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