TSP Talk Blog

I hope everyone enjoyed their Christmas holiday. Except for you die-hards, there's probably not a lot folks reading today so I'll make this brief.

Stocks were up all morning on Wednesday, but being a very light volume trading day, some sellers were able to push indices back to about break-even by the close of the shortened trading session.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The small caps had a nice day and the I-fund led with a 0.34% gain, while the F-fund added 0.03%.


TheSPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) ended the day flat on Wednesday. That makes the analysis easy. There is nothing here to scare us yet, but the indices are stretched so I don't expect any massive upswing either. But volume is light and a news event could move things more than we'd expect.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The PMO indicator moved over its moving average, and that tends to happen well after the lows are in, but it may also indicate more upside is coming.

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) has remained above the resistance line but it could just be holiday buoyancy and we may not know the real direction until after the holidays are behind us. But for now, the seasonality is on the bull's side.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Today is trading day number +1 so seasonality remains strong into next week.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The January chart is generally more bullish for small caps and techs, but there's enough green on this S&P 500 seasonality chart to tell us that January is one of the better months of the year historically. One interesting thing about January is that the first week can often tell us a lot about what the new year is going to bring.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk


AutoTracker: Just a reminder that if you want to get on the 2015 AutoTracker to start the new year, make sure to login to the AutoTracker by December 31 so we know you're still around. If you're new to the AutoTracker, use the instructions on this page to get started.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.