Positive bias resumes
by
, 12-26-2014 at 05:52 AM (1669 Views)
I hope everyone enjoyed their Christmas holiday. Except for you die-hards, there's probably not a lot folks reading today so I'll make this brief.
Stocks were up all morning on Wednesday, but being a very light volume trading day, some sellers were able to push indices back to about break-even by the close of the shortened trading session.
The small caps had a nice day and the I-fund led with a 0.34% gain, while the F-fund added 0.03%.
Daily TSP Funds Return
TheSPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) ended the day flat on Wednesday. That makes the analysis easy. There is nothing here to scare us yet, but the indices are stretched so I don't expect any massive upswing either. But volume is light and a news event could move things more than we'd expect.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The PMO indicator moved over its moving average, and that tends to happen well after the lows are in, but it may also indicate more upside is coming.
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) has remained above the resistance line but it could just be holiday buoyancy and we may not know the real direction until after the holidays are behind us. But for now, the seasonality is on the bull's side.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today is trading day number +1 so seasonality remains strong into next week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The January chart is generally more bullish for small caps and techs, but there's enough green on this S&P 500 seasonality chart to tell us that January is one of the better months of the year historically. One interesting thing about January is that the first week can often tell us a lot about what the new year is going to bring.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
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Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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