TSP Talk Blog

Stocks opened sharply lower on Thursday, but the bulls were at the ready and the buying began. The indices spent most of the day just slightly positive but a strong close help push them toward the highs of the day.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The schizophrenic small caps had another big day, this one on the upside and the S-fund gained 0.75%, while the I-fund lagged and lost 0.30% but should get some help with Friday's pricing. Bonds were up.

The bulls refuse to go away easily as the SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was up yet again on Thursday and remains close to all-time highs. There is resistance overhead, but it is rising, and so is the SPY.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) had a big day but it hasn't had quite the easy rise that the S&P 500 has had this month.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Russell 2000 seems to have hit a double top. The bull flag is a bullish sign, but I think that descending orange support line needs to hold, or the bull flag will look more like a peak. So far it has held.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) fell back below the 50-day EMA as the rising wedge continues to form and is getting closer to the apex where it will have to breakout one way or the other. Watch out for a possible "fake-out" followed by the real breakout.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The November seasonality chart shows that the latter part of November is an historically favorable time for stocks, and today is trading day #15.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

And here is the historical performance surrounding Thanksgiving Day. The day before and the day after have been consistently strong, while the Monday after the weekend tends to be one of the weaker days of the year.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up but remained in that tight range between the 50-day EMA and about 110.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.