TSP Talk Blog

Stocks opened lower on Tuesday, but it turned into a turn-around-Tuesday as we saw the Dow end the day up 101-points. The S&P did slightly better percentage-wise (+0.75) while small caps lagged again as the Russell added 0.39%.

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The I-fund was up just 0.25% but all of the gains in U.S. stocks came after the European markets closed, so it may get some help with today's closing price. Bonds were basically flat.

The Fed meets again today and the policy announcement usually comes around 2:15 PM ET. The words to watch for regarding keeping interest rates low is, "for a considerable time."

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) broke out from a falling wedge pattern, which is what we'd expect from that pattern and things are much cleaner, and easier to understand, when they do what technical analysis might expect them to do. So far so good, but with the Fed warming up in the bullpen, you never know what could happen, although the Fed has been good to the market in recent years.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-Fund) was up but technically it didn't do much except manage to barely close back above the 50-day EMA. I guess that's something.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Russell 2000 was up but again, there was nothing very bullish technically, compared to the breakout from the falling wedge in the S&P 500.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

TSP Talk Plus subscribers: Make sure you read today's report regarding the "Death Cross" in the Russell 2000.

The EFA (EAFE / I-fund) opened sharply lower, hit the 200-day EMA, and posted a big positive outside reversal day. That's the kind of action (or technical setup) that you might expect when a market is about to reverse trend / direction. It wouldn't surprise me if the EFA is back up testing the 50-day EMA again in the next couple of days.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The IEF (Bonds / F-fund) filled the small overhead open gap yesterday but remains in technical trouble. Let's see if the Fed can help them out. Any talk of interest rates could get them moving sharply in one direction or the other.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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