TSP Talk Blog

It's been six years but I have finally made it back to my home town to see friends and family this week. I can't stay completely away - I never can since I live and breathe the market and charts - but I hope to do more visiting than market analysis this week.

Stocks bounced back on Friday, after Thursday's geopolitically driven sell-off. Investors couldn't wait to jump back in on the apparent bargains presented to them. The Dow gained 123-points on Friday, and volume was decent, and now the conflicting index charts leave as many questions as answers as we enter another busy weak of earnings.

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Small caps finally had a big day, leading to the upside. The I-fund was held back by the rally in the dollar but may be due some upside fair value heading into Monday.

After being down 1% on Thursday, the first 1% move in over 60-days for the S&P 500 / C-fund, stocks snapped back on Friday regaining most of those losses. We saw some longer-term support hold on Thursday (thick red line) and while Friday's rally nearly has the S&P at new highs, not all the charts are painting a rosy picture.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) had a big day on Friday, but the chart remains in a steep downtrend, just below resistance. It needs to have a positive day today to break that trend.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Today is the 14th trading day in July and the market is in the middle of a seasonally sluggish period for stocks. Today has the worst record.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The AGG shows bonds hitting overhead resistance at the top of a trading channel. This week we'll either see a breakout to the upside, or a push back down into the trading channel. Whichever happens may depend on what happens to stocks as they tend to move in opposite directions. A breakout to the upside on this chart would probably be bad news for stocks.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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