Subdued unit labor costs will act to academically boost bottom line results,
but for how long? What is good for corporate bottom lines is not good for employee wages, job growth, etc. We are currently seeing extremes in labor stats
never seen before. Average hours worked hit a record low in June before recovering very slightly in July, as did the year over year change in aggregate weekly hours (the combo of wages and hours). We’re seeing record highs consistently month by month in average weeks of unemployment. And in terms of job growth so far in to the current decade,
NEVER have we experienced anything like what you see in the table below. Without reaching for melodrama, I consider
current decade payroll growth experience a secular game changer.
Decade Total Growth In US Payroll Employment
1940's
38.0%
1950's
24.5
1960's
31.5
1970's
27.2
1980's
20.0
1990's
19.9
2000's
0.6
The number for the current decade will clearly be negative (a first) before the year is out. And
this is what CEO’s are increasingly optimistic about? ....
If indeed CEO’s and CFO’s are feeling much better about the future of the economy and their business prospects, then we would expect to see a number of tangible real world events occur in the not too distant future. We would expect to see the hiring of temporary help pick up, and perhaps quite substantially and very soon. We would also expect to see corporate capital expenditures begin to advance. These are just two very simple examples of real world expressions of “confidence”. As always,
it’s what the CEO's do, not what they say, that’s the important tell.
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