Why This Recession Seems Worse Than '70s and '80s

**CountryBoy** · 02-14-2009, 07:38 PM

Good article and puts some things in perspective and gives you some hope that things aren't as bad as being spun by the media and others.

"If you think this recession is the worst since World War II, chances are you weren't born or working during the downturns of the 1970s and '80s, you're listening to President Obama too much or you're a white-collar worker in financial services.

If all three are true, you may even think we’re on the verge of another Great Depression.

At this point, the only thing that may be true is your age and employment status.

The current situation has nothing in common with the Great Depression,” says economist Steve Hanke of the Cato Institute and Johns Hopkins University. “The sooner they [in Washington] stop spinning the bad news story and say nothing, the sooner we’ll be more confident.”

Hanke is not alone in dismissing what appears to be a potent cocktail of misinformation and doom and gloom, wherein the current recession—now in its 13th month—is already considered worse than the 16-month ones of 1973-1975 and 1980-1982."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29163654

It's the old "if you say it enough, it must be true".

I've always thought that all the harping on bad news and calling it the worst crisis since the depression was overkill and did nothing to help matters. We got over the other recessions and we can get over this one also, only if....

CB

**Prozium** · 02-14-2009, 07:54 PM

(1) U.S. was not a lower wage scale service economy.
(2) U.S. had a saving rate.
(3) 72% of the economy was not based on consumer spending.
(4) 75-80% of housing was not underwater.
(5) U.S. grew its own food.
(6) Funded liabilities were not $12T
(7) Unfunded liabilities were not $40T
(8) U.S. was not doing $750B per quarter bailouts.
(9) The derivative market was $540T, of which most of it is toxic.
(10) We did not have $1.8T in outstanding U.S. Treasury Debt.
(11) U.S. did not have to have $150B weekly Treasury auctions to keep the doors open.
(12) Was not funding a War on Terror to the tune of $14B a month.

This downturn is just getting started. Until we insource our manufacturing base back the cycle of getting fired and taking a lower paying job is just getting started.

**Prozium** · 02-14-2009, 08:11 PM

80% of our Treasury debt was not own by foreigners which means the interest to service them use to go back into our economy instead of going overseas.

**CountryBoy** · 02-14-2009, 08:35 PM

Originally Posted by Prozium

(1) U.S. was not a lower wage scale service economy.
(2) U.S. had a saving rate.
(3) 72% of the economy was not based on consumer spending.
(4) 75-80% of housing was not underwater.
(5) U.S. grew its own food.
(6) Funded liabilities were not $12T
(7) Unfunded liabilities were not $40T
(8) U.S. was not doing $750B per quarter bailouts.
(9) The derivative market was $540T, of which most of it is toxic.
(10) We did not have $1.8T in outstanding U.S. Treasury Debt.
(11) U.S. did not have to have $150B weekly Treasury auctions to keep the doors open.
(12) Was not funding a War on Terror to the tune of $14B a month.

This downturn is just getting started. Until we insource our man

ufacturing base back the cycle of getting fired and taking a lower paying job is just getting started.

All very good points Pro,

I didn't realize the article was so rife with inaccuracies.

I just liked some of the optimism in the above article, but I'm planning on this recession lasting into 2011 as I've mentioned several times throughout the MB. But with any luck I'll be wrong, though I'm not betting on it.

Thanks for setting me and the record straight, I shouldn't have fallen for that old you can manipulate facts to fit anything you want.

At my age you'd think I wouldn't have fallen for that sleight of hand.

So we'll keep that drumbeat going.

CB

**Prozium** · 02-14-2009, 11:34 PM

The average money market has a better return then the S&P 500 since 1996. 13 years and counting.

**Prozium** · 02-15-2009, 05:05 PM

U.S. Federal obligations exceed world GDP

As the Obama administration pushes through Congress its $800 billion deficit-spending economic stimulus plan, the American public is largely unaware that the true deficit of the federal government already is measured in trillions of dollars, and in fact its $65.5 trillion in total obligations exceeds the gross domestic product of the world.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.p...w&pageId=88851

**alevin** · 03-02-2009, 03:08 PM

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...K1s&refer=news

Batten down the hatches, everyone. There may be some good swingtrading opportunities here, we'll see.

Options investors are paying twice this decade’s average to protect against losses in U.S. stocks through 2011, signaling the bear market may last two more years. "There's a real panic in the markets with some people wanting to buy long term insurance at any price." "People have lost hope.

Contracts to protect against a decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index for two years cost $15,160 on the Chicago Board Options Exchange, compared with $6,875 in 2007. Today's level shows traders expect the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities to fluctuate twice as much in the next two years as it has since 2000.

Options traders see little chance of relief, based on the so-called implied volatility of two-year contracts on the S&P 500. It jumped to a record 43.58 in November and stayed above 30 since then, a level it never previously exceeded.

**Buster** · 04-22-2009, 04:47 PM

I Didn't want to start a new thread..

David Kellermann, the acting chief financial officer of money-losing mortgage giant Freddie Mac was found dead at his home Wednesday morning in what police said was an apparent suicide.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090422/..._official_dead