Bernanke's 1980s Computer Model Predicts Crisis

**Silverbird** · 09-26-2008, 09:11 PM

......The closest alternative to a crystal ball, in the real world, is a computer model of the economy. Back in the 1980s, one such model was created by none other than Ben Bernanke, who's now at the center of the crisis as the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Bernanke's computer model is called the "financial accelerator." It's now in the office of Mark Gertler, an economics professor at New York University, who worked on it with Bernanke decades ago......

....Does the model say the economy is heading for doomsday, unless there's an intervention? Gertler pauses, then says, "Uh, roughly speaking, yes."

Gertler says he hasn't asked the model to predict what comes next. But a colleague of his has been training the model on data from the past 20 years.
Simon Gilchrest, of Boston University, says the exercise has shown some clear results. "What the model is saying currently is we are experiencing a 2 percent decline in GDP growth because of these credit-tightening effects," he says.
....In coming days, Gilchrest expects to use the Bernanke and Gertler model to look into the future. He wants to ask whether the $700 billion the Bush administration seeks for a bailout would be enough."
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...oryId=95076198
[wish he had plugged that $700B into the model]

**Tempest** · 09-26-2008, 11:23 PM

Well if this is the future I'm in G 100%

Who writes this stuff! HAHAHAHHA

**Birchtree** · 09-26-2008, 11:59 PM

This girl is going to chew Biden up for lunch - and then ask for desert.

**James48843** · 09-27-2008, 05:25 AM

If that's the best she can do, I don't think even a "G" fund is going to be sufficent.

We need to be ready for a "Euro" fund, because pretty soon, the dollar is'nt going to be worth the paper it's printed on. "G" fund dollars will be suitable to deliver by the wheel barrow for a load of bread, as in Germany, 1921 style.

**ChemEng** · 09-27-2008, 06:40 AM

Originally Posted by Tempest

Who writes this stuff! HAHAHAHHA

Its like she wanted to hit on every issue in this election in less than 2 minutes and in 1 sentence. I cant wait for October 2.

**Silverbird** · 09-27-2008, 04:32 PM

Dear Palin staff, please get her ready for this job interview with some trial runs before she goes in front of her potential employers.

**ChemEng** · 09-27-2008, 04:43 PM

Originally Posted by Silverbird

Dear Palin staff, please get her ready for this job interview with some trial runs before she goes in front of her potential employers.

Has the format for that debate been announced yet? I would really like to see and Biden go through the same format as McCain and Obama did last night.

**XL-entLady** · 09-27-2008, 04:57 PM

Originally Posted by Silverbird

Dear Palin staff, please get her ready for this job interview with some trial runs before she goes in front of her potential employers.

Because we're starting to realize that she is a lot better fit for "Miss Congeniality" than she is for the job that is a heartbeat away from the most powerful position in the world. (And for Sarah "Barracuda" Palin that's a very confined statement.) But we need her to do a reasonably adequate job in the debate, please, because we don't want those cracks in the glass ceiling to be puttied over and reinforced with steel. People have spent lifetimes of work to get those cracks there.

Yours truly,
Half of America