Thread: Job report

Probably won't be too good or too bad - I'd say within 20k either side of the expected number.

Cry of 'unfair'

U.S. textile makers and many of their overseas counterparts now argue that China will quickly draw most of the world's textile and clothing manufacture because of unfair advantages: a government-managed currency that keeps the price of Chinese products artificially low; Chinese banks that forgive non-performing loans, thus allowing money-losing companies to continue operating; and the absence of labor and environmental regulations that otherwise would push up Chinese companies' costs.


[color=#00e0a0]



Entire local economy suffers from job cuts
Anderson Independent Mail (subscription),SC- 3 hours ago
... "It will definitely hurt us," she said ... One of the region’s biggest textile losses came last month as WestPoint Stephens announced 1,300 jobs at its Clemson ...




Our global closet
Newsday,NY- Jan 30, 2005
... Domestic textile companies are trying to prevent that from ... system will result in catastrophic job losses in the ... to legislators and to the US Department of ...




POST-QUOTA TEXTILE TRADE STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
Weekly Trade News Digest,UK- Jan 27, 2005
... Action Coalition (AMTAC), which represents US-based manufacturers ... quota expiry resulting in job losses in smaller ... recent weeks when six textile factories closed ...




Upstate braces for more job losses
The State,SC- Jan 12, 2005
... amounts of clothing and home textiles to US stores ... trade quotas would hurt “every company� in the textile industry, said ... Save a dollar, lose a job; that’s ...




NC expected to lose half its textile jobs
Winston-Salem Journal,NC- Jan 4, 2005
... The job-loss predictions are mainly based on ... protection through late October, and US textile-trade groups ... have created a perfect storm for losses of apparel ...




Textile industry faces more pain this year
Charlotte Observer (subscription),NC- Jan 2, 2005
... Carolinas textile job losses slowed last year, but the lull is likely short-lived. ... 40 countries to ship unlimited amounts of textiles and apparel to US stores. ...




More job loss ahead
Charlotte Observer (subscription),NC- Jan 6, 2005
Our state, already battered by manufacturing job losses, can expect ... of textiles and apparel to US stores. ... say this state, once the nation's textile and apparel ...

HANDICAPPING FRIDAY'S REPORT ON EMPLOYMENT
By JOHN CRUDELE

February 1, 2005 -- WALL Street is probably expecting too much from Friday's employment report.

Experts think the economy produced over 200,000 new jobs in the first month of 2005.
But for that to have happened the tally must overcome the massive assumption that the government makes for companies it believes have quietly gone out of business in January.

In January of 2004, for instance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics deducted 321,000 jobs from its survey to account for these business failures. The impact of these assumptions is never as great as during January.

After all the adjustments were made in January 2004, the government reported very disappointing job growth of just 112,000.
Without the assumption that dying companies were causing jobs to be lost, the job growth figure for the first month of 2004 would have been a very healthy 433,000.
Needless to say, newspaper headlines that the country was starting out 2004 with only new 112,000 jobs drove the Bush administration nuts.
Treasury Secretary John Snow wasted countless speeches explaining that job growth would improve. And it did — just as soon as the government changed its assumptions in spring.
That's when the Labor Department began adding large numbers of jobs to its count for new companies that were being formed. Suddenly the labor market looked to be booming.
But just to make everyone a little crazier, the birth/death assumptions cooled toward summer and the official labor figures were suddenly weak enough to become an election issue.
January and July are the two months of the year in which the Bureau of Labor Statistics believes that there are more companies going out of business than being formed.
For the economy to overcome these assumptions, there would have to be a sudden boom in hiring in the post-Christmas season when — in fact — a lot of employers are downsizing.
Friday's announcement that the nation's gross domestic product slowed in the fourth quarter of last year also doesn't leave much hope for a January job boom.
A disappointing jobs figure on Friday would be no more believable than all the good numbers that came out last spring.
I'm afraid this is simply a case of statistics disconnecting with the real world.
The government would really like all of its statistics to be viewed over longer periods of time. In fact, when all the final revisions are done — years later — the numbers are probably close to reality.
Ah, but that wouldn't permit Wall Street to place bets on numbers like the one coming Friday. So, how should you wager on Friday's number?
If you think Wall Street is right, perhaps you should put a few bucks into the stock market. Despite all the optimism you may have read (elsewhere), stocks have been beaten down in January.
And while that might be a bad omen for the rest of the year, the market could rally for a while on a good employment figure.
But big job growth could hurt bonds and cause interest rates to rise. If I'm right, the reverse will happen Friday.
Weak job growth — even if it's based on faulty assumptions — will cause stocks to decline more (because the economy will look weaker than expected) and bonds to rise (because rates will remain at today's incredibly low levels or drop some more.)

What's your opinion Saraho. When investors say 'buy the rumor, sell the news'; could that mean with the market run-up this week, that even if by chance the job report is good tomorrow, there could be a sell off, especially with many saying sellthe ralley?

vectorman wrote:

What's your opinion Saraho. When investors say 'buy the rumor, sell the news'; could that mean with the market run-up this week, that even if by chance the job report is good tomorrow, there could be a sell off, especially with many saying sellthe ralley?

We had a run-up in advance of the State of the Union. IMHO, if the jobs report is excellent, we'll likely see a rally on Friday. However, if it significantly fails to meet expectations, I would expect to see a decline, with a rise in the F fund.

Sarah,

The weekly initial claims for January were HORRIBLE:

Jan 1 - 357K

Jan 8 - 367K

Jan 15 - 318K

Jan 22 - 322K

Jan 29 - 316K

By my crappy math that would around a gain of around 140K for the monthly report.

Good luck out there.

I was aware of that MT. That was the reason I posted theCrudele article.

No worries Sarah.

I will you all the luck in the world. Remember all the M&As means layoffs and job cuts moving forward....mass M&A happens at market tops.

I hope my info is helping you with your investments....the idiots that invest with me pay 3% for my rants .

I hope you are doing well.

MT

146k - higher than MT, lower than me...

The unemployment rate fell to 5.2%. Interesting.

Apparently its being viewedas Goldilocks' porridge...neither too hot (inflation) nor too cold (recession)...so we're getting a rally.

MarketTimer wrote:

I hope my info is helping you with your investments....the idiots that invest with me pay 3% for my rants .

C'mon MT....is that really what you think about your clients??



John