Thread: HO HUM

MarketTimer wrote:

The ecomomy is slowing to a stop...PEs are still based on $25-30 crude...PEs have not been refigured for the expensing of stock options....ho humm...



U.S. Jan. ISM manufacturing index falls to 56.4% By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Factory activity in the United States decelerated in January, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday. The ISM index fell to 56.4 percent in January from a revised 57.3 percent in December. The decline was larger than expected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by CBS Marketwatch was for the index to fall to 57.2. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. New orders fell to 56.5 in January from 62.6 in December.

Well, I guess this amatuer will respond to give you something to bitch at. Jan is after Dec right? In Dec there is lots of "manufacturing"going on I believe. I'd expect adrop off in Jan. Perhaps I'm wrong. Let's see "readings above 50 indicate expansion". What was Jan? Oh that's right, 56.4. I read the same thing on marketwatch. You should post the rest of the commentary.

You're shorting the market, I'd be concerned too.................but you still have a couple of weeks to convince people to get out of stocks. Just not sure how doing it with TSP people helps you too much. Yes, a lot of fund managers are shorting the market right now, but I bet most are regretting it now. Who would of thought Iraq would go so well after all. You're desperate, you should be........ 100 million dollar fund and you're losing money? Find a bridge!!!!

This is the full story - I italicized the last portion for emphasis. You'll see why when you read it.

NEW YORK -- Activity at the nation's factories increased for a 20th consecutive month in January, but the pace of expansion eased, reflecting sustained, moderate economic growth.

The Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday that its index measuring manufacturing activity declined to 56.4 in January -- analysts were expecting a reading of 57 -- from a revised reading of 57.3 in December.

Although the index declined, the fact that it remained above 50 indicates that the sector continued to grow last month but at a somewhat slower pace. A reading of 50 or above in the index means the manufacturing sector is expanding; a figure below 50 represents a contraction.

Economists said the reading shows the manufacturing sector continues to expand. But the growth is gradual, with the pace of new orders to plants slowing, despite a weak dollar that makes U.S. goods more competitive overseas.

"We are seeing consistent evidence that the economy is enjoying sustainable growth. It's not extremely robust growth, but it does appear that the economy is probably going to continue to grow at a healthy pace this year," said Gary Thayer, chief economist with A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis.

In other economic news, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday that construction spending jumped by 1.1 percent in December, making last year the best for building activity since 1996. The December increase was the sector's best showing in eight months, a sign of robust activity in both private- and public-sector building projects.

For the year, building activity increased 9 percent to $998.4 billion, the largest increase since a 10.4 percent rise in 1996.

Total private residential activity rose by 14 percent to $542.7 billion last year, the biggest increase in a decade.

bedee bee beep...THIS JUST IN....MarketTimer's Credibility Index just plummeted below 50% today and amateur pundits are waiting by the sidelines to see if a recovery is possible anytime soon...

Can I short that index?

Wow up .31% is a big move for you???? I would say that is a sideways move.

Short still on...trend is down and I hope you stay long. How much you down so far this year??? Because I loved how quite you were January...ouch, ouch, ouch.

Good luck out there.

MT

Mike wrote:

This is the full story - I italicized the last portion for emphasis. You'll see why when you read it.

NEW YORK -- Activity at the nation's factories increased for a 20th consecutive month in January, but the pace of expansion eased, reflecting sustained, moderate economic growth.

The Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday that its index measuring manufacturing activity declined to 56.4 in January -- analysts were expecting a reading of 57 -- from a revised reading of 57.3 in December.

Although the index declined, the fact that it remained above 50 indicates that the sector continued to grow last month but at a somewhat slower pace. A reading of 50 or above in the index means the manufacturing sector is expanding; a figure below 50 represents a contraction.

Economists said the reading shows the manufacturing sector continues to expand. But the growth is gradual, with the pace of new orders to plants slowing, despite a weak dollar that makes U.S. goods more competitive overseas.

"We are seeing consistent evidence that the economy is enjoying sustainable growth. It's not extremely robust growth, but it does appear that the economy is probably going to continue to grow at a healthy pace this year," said Gary Thayer, chief economist with A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis.

In other economic news, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday that construction spending jumped by 1.1 percent in December, making last year the best for building activity since 1996. The December increase was the sector's best showing in eight months, a sign of robust activity in both private- and public-sector building projects.

For the year, building activity increased 9 percent to $998.4 billion, the largest increase since a 10.4 percent rise in 1996.

Total private residential activity rose by 14 percent to $542.7 billion last year, the biggest increase in a decade.

Maybe because you cut and pasted your report from another source? I cut and pasted the breaking news report at marketwatch when it crossed the wires...I am guess you cut and pasted for NY TIMES?

I would rather each news source would write the story a little different but since this is a site about investing I would say you should use the financial news sites....but the trend is down, GDP trend is down, earnings trend is down and the stock market trend is down....and inflation is up...I would say from past experience trading in this type of market that is not helpful for stock or bonds.

Also, it is kind of wrong to blast me for chopping stuff out of a story when you got your story from another site. Because I could go to another site and cut and paste another story and say you changed yours.

Anyone agree....

Just read the by lines...mine is from Washington Dc and was a breaking news story so it was short and sweet and yours was from New York...and you say I cut material out of the story you read....hmmmevery different site that carried the story was probably a little different, maybe???

I would appreciate in the future not doing stuff like this....SEE MT is changing the story....it is from a freaking different source then where you were reading from.

Good luck in the market tomorrow....and please stay long.

MT

Mine was from the local paper (it did not give an author, so I am left to guess that it's AP).

Based on how you interpret everything as bearish / underperforming / bad, I felt the need to refute your conclusions, which the full story did a fairly good job of doing.

BTW, I'd strongly advise you not to take shots at people on here for what their individual returns are, considering you do not post your moves (other than your current line of saying you are shorting the market). You claim to be doing well and give us no means of verifying. That's all well and good, but as long as you are going to do that, I'm going to continue to look upon you with a great deal of suspicion. And if you continue taking shots at those of us posting our moves on here for all to see, that suspicion will turn into outright hostility.

Be careful out there, indeed.

Even from you own story that you posted should tell you pain is ahead....



Economists said the reading shows the manufacturing sector continues to expand. But the growth is gradual, with the pace of new orders to plants slowing, despite a weak dollar that makes U.S. goods more competitive overseas.

OK what that means is lay offs, line shut downs and loss of earnings...another worry is the build up for Xmas does not start until July-August...and inventories are high....that may mean plants could shut down for a couple of months to let the inventory bleed off...because they can not sell at a discount move them due to margains...

ok. Good luck. You need to read the story and say What does that mean for stocks? Not MT cut out a paragraph from the story I read that was obviously to a third grader from the by line was from a different source.

Good luck out there.

Mike wrote:

Mine was from the local paper (it did not give an author, so I am left to guess that it's AP).

Based on how you interpret everything as bearish / underperforming / bad, I felt the need to refute your conclusions, which the full story did a fairly good job of doing.

BTW, I'd strongly advise you not to take shots at people on here for what their individual returns are, considering you do not post your moves (other than your current line of saying you are shorting the market). You claim to be doing well and give us no means of verifying. That's all well and good, but as long as you are going to do that, I'm going to continue to look upon you with a great deal of suspicion. And if you continue taking shots at those of us posting our moves on here for all to see, that suspicion will turn into outright hostility.

Be careful out there, indeed.

All ready answered your question....before you posted yours....sometimes you have to read between the lines to figure out what it means....new orders slowing and high inventories is BULLISH...you are right....can you take me under your wing??? They will just keep those old lines open and produce more product because slowing orders is a good thing!!!!! YEah I got it!!!!

Nice side step....you say I am changing news stories from the one you read and that is not taking a pot shot???

You must be down because the return thing kind of got to ya huh?

Easy to make money...hard to keep.

I am shorting the heck out of the stock market because it is going down...so why would I post moves I was going long?

I have been saying since August 2004 that the market is going to crater starting the first of the year....

Good luck out there!

MT



Mike wrote:

Mine was from the local paper (it did not give an author, so I am left to guess that it's AP).

Based on how you interpret everything as bearish / underperforming / bad, I felt the need to refute your conclusions, which the full story did a fairly good job of doing.

BTW, I'd strongly advise you not to take shots at people on here for what their individual returns are, considering you do not post your moves (other than your current line of saying you are shorting the market). You claim to be doing well and give us no means of verifying. That's all well and good, but as long as you are going to do that, I'm going to continue to look upon you with a great deal of suspicion. And if you continue taking shots at those of us posting our moves on here for all to see, that suspicion will turn into outright hostility.

Be careful out there, indeed.