A small excerpt from one of Steve Kaplan's updates.
This is a brief update for Friday early afternoon, February 26, 2016.
VIX: watch it retreat and then complete yet another higher low near 15
One indicator which is highly useful and almost completely misunderstood is VIX, which measures the average implied volatility of a basket of options on the S&P 500 Index. Historically, when a bull market is in its final stages, VIX will complete a multi-year bottom and will then begin to form a pattern of higher lows. A good example from the last decade was when VIX bottomed at 9.39 on December 15, 2006. Afterward, it made higher lows throughout 2007 and all the way until October 24, 2008, when it completed a top at 89.53. Although U.S. equity indices continued to grind lower through the first nine days of March 2009, VIX made a lower high in November 2008 and several additional lower highs, so that by the time March rolled around it was enormously lower than it had been at the October 2008 top; its most elevated level in March 2009 was merely 53.25--and that was on March 2, not March 6 or 9. This was a signal that a bull market was approaching. Notice that the same pattern has repeated again in the most recent bull market which ended in the second quarter of 2015 (yes, it's officially over, folks; the current rebound proves it), when VIX bottomed on July 3, 2014 at 10.28. Since then, it has made a huge number of higher lows, the last one being 14.45 on December 24, 2015 which was just over two months ago. Most likely, the next higher low will be somewhere around 15. When that happens, if you sold HDGE or other bear funds or made some U.S. equity index or technology purchases when I had recommended selling HDGE earlier this month, you can again gradually reverse direction by going back to the short side.
True Contrarian
HDGE link....Steve uses this fund because because if held 12 months it can be used for LT capital gains. That is not true for most short funds.
(HDGE) Ranger Equity Bear ETF | AdvisorShares
SevenSentinels @SevenSentinels 11h11 hours ago
10 PM, February 29, 2016 Heading Towards Next Trade Op
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