Something else to watch

01-05-2005, 01:11 PM

If the 50 dma breaks then the next resistance point will be the 200dma...if that is broken then my target of 9900-10000 will come to past.

Hopefully me talking about it will cause the market to turn. Early to middle December the market was overlooking bad economic reports - that is very toppy very soon afterwards. But there has been a lot of damage and that will need time to fix before we see any gains. Once again the rotation is out of the small caps...so you may want to lighten up on the S fund on your next change.

MT

**tsptalk** · 01-05-2005, 11:42 PM

MarketTimer wrote:

Hopefully me talking about it will cause the market to turn.

That is funny.... and true

**Mike** · 01-06-2005, 05:33 AM

I'm waiting (very patiently) for the S to recover before shifting out of it. Selling now will only lock in a substantial loss.

Sell the rumor, indeed... :shock:

Dave M · 01-06-2005, 06:06 AM

I don't see how selling will "lock in losses" since one can buy back in at any time. Rather, I went 100%G yesterday in the spirit of "profit taking"-- in order tolock in my previous gains.

I'm pretty new to this forum, which is one that I truly appreciate. So maybe there is something I have yet to understand?

Dave M

**Spaf** · 01-06-2005, 06:17 AM

Dave M wrote:

Rather, I went 100%G yesterday in the spirit of "profit taking"

I would rather not agree with you, unless you could explain what profits you were referring to! Not to be offensive, just curious. You have sort of lost me?

Rgds :? Spaf

**Mike** · 01-06-2005, 07:07 AM

I purchased my S shares @ $14.55 - if I bail now, I'm locking in a major loss.

I purchased C @ $12.83, so I'm in a similar situation (not as bad though) there.

I don't expect a total collapse here, so it makes sense from my perspective to sit tight and wait for the market to move back up. If we keep dropping through the long-term MA's, then we're in real trouble. I don't see any reason for that yet, though. Economic news is good. The GDP growth in the 4th quarter was strong by all indications. Manufacturing activity is stronger than expected. Factory orders are up. Retail sales are up. Oil is hovering in the low 40's as it has for awhile now. In other words, the raw economics of the situation remain decent (pending the next jobs report).

The federal reserve's comments from the last meeting were released this week, though - and they pointed to inflationary concerns and possibly alluded to stronger rate hikes than the 0.25 we've been seeing. That is what triggered this sell off. With a good jobs report, I expect people to jump back into the market. We are now oversold.

Dave M · 01-06-2005, 10:12 AM

Profit taking -- I am thinking of the profits that resulted from the runup Sept 04 to present. These are at risk. By stashing everything in the G-fund for a short while, I am "locking them in." Once the stock funds show some signs of life, I can quickly move back in to the C S I, having avoided most of the downturn and missed just a small part of the upturn.

Why is it better to ride out the down cycle while remaining invested? Why not bailin good time, then get back in at an opportune moment? To me it just seems best to avoid further loss if possible, and we have the luxury of the guaranteed government fund as a place to sit and wait.

Dave

**lovegardening** · 01-06-2005, 10:48 AM

I see alot of you moving into the G fund early. I see some in C, S and I and I understand these are interfund transfers. BUT WHERE ARE YOUR CONTRIBUTION ALLOCATIONS. WHAT FUNDS ARE THEY IN?

01-06-2005, 10:57 AM

My TSP transfer came throu. OK, the market can rally now.

**lovegardening** · 01-06-2005, 11:06 AM

What my question meant was Are you all putting the same allocations in your CONTRIBUTION allocations as you are in your INTERFUND transfers? What is the BEST allocation for CONTRIBTUTION allocations.....Do I keep them them both the same amounts. When I make an interfund transfer do I make my contribution allocation the same? or.................should my contribution allocation always remain in the same funds? Is my question making sense? I need some really good advice in this area. New here.

01-06-2005, 11:19 AM

I am not employed by the government anymore. I got no money going in. I just use these funds because the ETFs get pricey for as much trading as I do

. On the other hand the ETF you do not have to have your order in by noon and are not locked into the share price at the end of the day. Havelost a ton of cash by making a transfer in the morning and then have the market sell off hard at 3:30pm like it has been doing a lot lately. At 11:58am the move looked great...four hours later you are slamming your head against the wall.

01-06-2005, 11:21 AM

I would recommend having your new contributions go 100% G. If you track the market you will see that a large percentage of up days happen when the gov vests the tsp.

You want to put money to work on bad days and sell on up days. But with having to do the change prior to noon that does not work out cleanly.

Hope that helps and that is just my advice. Over the next couple of months watch the market during the govt TSP invest days and judge for yourself if you had the choice if you would of put money to work on that day.

:^