Market Talk

**Spaf** · 01-03-2005, 04:09 AM

Sunday Jan 2.

Data and Comments on the New Year

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) ended 2004 at 10,783, up 3.1 percent on 2003.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMP: news, chart, profile) finished at 2,175, up 8.6 percent on the year.

The S&P 500 ($SPX: news, chart, profile) stood at 1,212 to chalk up a 9 percent gain for the year.

Most of 2004's gains came late in the year as investors reacted to the presidential election with relief that a clear winner had emerged and that the protracted legal battle which followed the 2000 election was not to be repeated.

"The low in August set the stage for an impressive advance that took many individual stocks to new highs," said Prudential analyst Ralph Acampora, who is convinced, he said, that market technicals are now setting the stage for a strong 2005. "Think about it for a second: All the leading market averages are entering the New Year at new highs," while all of the advance/decline lines are at all-time highs, he said. "This is a fully in-gear bull market."

January has a lot up in the first week, especially in the economic calendar of events.

http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/u...?view=economic

One of the best sites I have found to monitor current market conditions in domestic, international, and commodities is at:

http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/u...ml-markets.asp

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October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.

Mark Twain

Thanks Mark!

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Allocations

For a near retirement allocation I am using one of this sites model's with a little personal modification.

I went to the Current TSP fund allocation / Long term market outlook allocation / allocations, and picked the risk tolerance = moderate allocation of 20% for all funds. I removed the underperforming F fund and added it's value to the overperforming S and I funds, tweaked it for risk tolerance and came up with 20G, 0F, 20C, 35S, and 25I. Thats my current allocation and where I will start this year.

As far as where we stand right now in the market. I've attached a chart of the S&P for 1 year to date.

Rgds

Spaf

**Spaf** · 01-03-2005, 05:04 AM

Hey Chaplain............... I got 1 for U.

Subject: You can't outsmart the big guy

God is sitting in heaven when a scientist says to Him, "God, we don't need you anymore. Science has finally figured out a way to create life out of nothing - in other words, we can now do what you did in the beginning."

"Oh, is that so? Tell Me." replies God.

"Well," says the scientist, "we can take plain dirt and form it into the likeness of you, and breath life into it, thus creating man."

"Well, that's very interesting . show Me, " says God.

So the scientist bends down to the earth and starts to mold the soil into the shape of a man.

"No, no, no ..." interrupts God, "Get your own dirt....

**learning** · 01-03-2005, 12:36 PM

Hey Spaf.

Glad to hear what you are up to! I have started the first day with a more modest setting 45% C & S. Looking at going another 20 to the I fund. The I fund scares me though. Whimp. LOL If the first week looks good I will look at 100% stocks to come. They say the first week is a good indication of how things are going to go. The market looks a little over bought. However, I do not have the ability to get to a computer and see what is happening a lot. So I have to be a little more long term aimed. Week by week, if you will. We do not get much news here, and when we do it is late.:P

01-03-2005, 01:08 PM

He uses the foolish things to confound the wise

. Good one, Spaf :^

**Spaf** · 01-03-2005, 02:24 PM

learning wrote:

However, I do not have the ability to get to a computer and see what is happening a lot. So I have to be a little more long term aimed. Week by week, if you will. We do not get much news here, and when we do it is late.:P

Learning.....Mind me asking. Where are you at?

**Spaf** · 01-04-2005, 04:08 AM

Some of the better free charts of the stock market can be found at this site:

http://stockcharts.com

See the block: Easy as 1-2-3. Create a chart now!
1. Choose a style: i.e., Gallery
2. Enter a symbol: i.e., $SPX (for the S&P 500)
3. That's it! Just click "GO"

Rgds

Spaf

**learning** · 01-04-2005, 11:41 AM

Im on the East coast and work in remote areas.

Here we go this is where I bailed to early last time and ate the hit. Now, I will do a little riding and perhaps do better. The S fund took a disportinate hitthe other day, so I hope to see a rebound today. Please!!!!!! :P LOL

**Spaf** · 01-05-2005, 04:13 AM

This current market can make some rather steep gains and declines when it wants to. We have had two steep declines with the S&P reporting 1188.05 ending today.

The last Higher Low (HL) was at 1176, around December 7th. The bull market shouldn't go past that, and should stop somewhat above 1176. I should have changed my allocation yesterday (hindsight), not knowing how steep the low of todayswould reach.

1188 is a good number so I'll put in for a transfer from 20G, 0F, 20C, 35S, 25I for tomorrow at 30C, 40S, and 30I.

I'll be checking tomorrows AM market to see if the S&P goes above todays high of 1205. If it doesn't, I may cancel the transfer. If it does well I'll let the new transfer stay.

The problem with a correction catch is that it takes a day to make a transfer, and with a fast acting market, you can miss the best flying weather.

One more reason I need to transfer other funds to my Scottrade account.

Anyway, will see what happens for the AM of tomorrow. :?

PS: Tom,...... I unsubscribed from your e-mail alerts today to save you the cost. I can pick it up on your home page. Thats what I was doing any way. :^

Rgds, and be careful!

Spaf

**Wheels** · 01-06-2005, 12:19 AM

Oh man, This is brutal! 16K in 3 days. Stuck in S and I yet one more day. Will likely cut my losses tomorow and bail. Then the rest of you can enjoy a nice bounce that will no doubt begin IMMEDIATELY after I get out.

Dave

**lookywhatigot@yahoo.com** · 01-06-2005, 02:19 AM

Wheels wrote:

Oh man, This is brutal! 16K in 3 days. Stuck in S and I yet one more day. Will likely cut my losses tomorow and bail. Then the rest of you can enjoy a nice bounce that will no doubt begin IMMEDIATELY after I get out.

Dave

You might as well wait till Monday, that's when the market will be back up.

**Spaf** · 01-06-2005, 04:07 AM

Looky............I would agree with you. To wait right now, and see what happens.

Wheels wrote:

Oh man, This is brutal! Will likely cut my losses tomorow and bail.

We have a bull market going. The market will advance. It is normal for there to be periods of declines, what we call corrections, where the market has to sort of catch it's breath. I'm not always right, but this is what I believe we have going right now.

I don't see the market S&P 500 going below, say 1176, its previous Higher Low. It declined 2 points, 10 points, 14 points and today 4 points closing at 1184. In my opinion it is hitting some resistance. Now it might stay here for a while or start an advance any time. See attached chart S&P for 6 mo.

My strategy is to put some gains (20-30%) in the G fund as the market reaches new highs (selling high) and then to reserve that % for corrections to buy at lower prices. In the mean time I sleep better not be 100% invested all the time. Something you might consider, or try out. Right now I've bought back in at 1184. Will see if I get egg on my face.

The market talk at USAToday was: U.S. stocks ended lower Wednesday for a third session in a row as persistent concern over inflationary pressures moved investors to lock in recent gains. So I guess whenever this trend passes, the market should react, hopefully favorable.

Rgds

Spaf

**Mike** · 01-06-2005, 05:39 AM

I'm still toughing it out, but it's not easy, that's for sure. Whenever the S fund recovers back to my entry point, I'm cutting my exposure thereby 2/3 (from 60% to 20%).