Great Board

**Skip** · 01-02-2005, 03:47 PM

First post on this bbs, A fellow worker just told me about this board... Great information...
I trade my tsp account 4 to 12 times a year... Just moved to 100 g fund 12/31/04 as the indexes and stocks are just over bought right now... When I can't find any quility trades at a reasonable value I think its time to set out awhile.... I use a trading program called omnitrader to find trades and fire signals... in all of the stock funds the signals are either topped out or no signal... So 100% g for awhile. Just my opion for now as I believe the stock funds arethe place to be most of the time... Will post when I change.

Good Luck in 2005

Skip Roberts
Cincinnati Ohio

**tsptalk** · 01-02-2005, 05:27 PM

Welcome Skip. I feel the same way, but I made the mistakelast year of getting out too soon. The market was coming off a huge year in 2003 and the indicators were very overbought. Because of that I was in the G fund all of January. The S&P ended the month up 1.8% and the S fund was up 3.5%. I missed it.

So, my thinking this year is to try to be more patient.Maybe I willlighten up some (70 to 80% stocks) until I see signs that the market is going to take a breather. That means I won't get out at the top, but I won'tmiss much, if any, of the upside that way either. Defensively aggressive.

Thanks for joining us!
Tom

**coolhand** · 01-02-2005, 07:44 PM

This is just a personal belief on my part, but after the tech bubble burst (and 9/11)the marketbecame a difficult place to make money (if you could even keep from losing money). Many folks sought safe haven in money markets and such, but those savings vehicles have provided paltry returns. Baby boomers are just beginning to reach retirement age and many are scrambling to attain some measure of comfort in their portfolio.

I said a few months ago thatIsensed a lot of frustration on the part ofmany investors due to the reasons stated above. It seems that many of the fears driving the market prior to thefall of Saddam have greatly subsided. If my observation has any credibility at all I would think we want to be careful how much stock we put in certain technicals (not that they are notuseful tools).

I like your idea Tom and am considering such a move myself. I don't think it would be a good idea to entirely pull back from equities. Given the short term outlook, how badcan itget?

Welcome to the board Skip. It's nice to trade thoughts.

**smedlap** · 01-03-2005, 01:15 AM

Hi Tom and Coolhand! I think all are excited about the new year's prospects and we are all anxiously waiting to surge forward with your leads. First Happy New year and thanks for last year's 3 month ending! Need to study last year's play so as to profit and not become too comfortable. My simple thoughts: We did not hit the fair market value of S&P of 1225 by year end but close enough! S&P fair value was fixed at 1254 (4%) for summer but I think this is being ratcheted up. Too many forecasters say the best market will be the first half and maybe the first quarter and even the first month.S&P marketprojection for the year is torise 6 to 8% which is 1275 - 1300, and maybe give it all back by year end. These are the benchmarks I am going to make my play on, but have to see how the story unfolds as I am all I fund again. May getinto G fundon COB 23rd of Jan (a Friday ?) before the FOMC on 2 February, and back in on any dips. This has been truelyenjoyable listening to Tom, Puertorico, coolhand, chaplain, ron and so many others to include MT and thatbig pick T from down in Florida.

**teknobucks** · 01-03-2005, 03:49 AM

http://www.stockseasonality.com

**Skip** · 01-03-2005, 03:56 AM

Great imputs.... I agree with being in stocks, Just It was time to move out for awhile.

Might be a few days or ? One thing the markets go DOWN faster than they go up..
I did very well last year and pulled out 3 times and made money doing it...

Its reading the far right of the charts thats the hard part. hehe

Skip

**tsptalk** · 01-03-2005, 04:05 AM

teknobucks wrote:

http://www.stockseasonality.com

Where'd did you find that site? Looks like it is less than a week old. They are asking $25 a month. $20 to $30 seems to be the standard for these sites.

**Skip** · 01-04-2005, 12:07 AM

Down volume really came in.. I think we will see some more down volume tuesday...

down volumenyse up 196%
nasdaq up 136%
amex up 210%

wilshire 4500 off 1.45%
sp 500 off .081%

Dollar rose today !!

Skip

**pyriel** · 01-04-2005, 01:35 AM

tsptalk wrote:

teknobucks wrote:

http://www.stockseasonality.com

Where'd did you find that site? Looks like it is less than a week old. They are asking $25 a month. $20 to $30 seems to be the standard for these sites.

Hmmmm.... I have a funny feeling about this... Read what they said...

Note: the stocks that we provide in the member site are not the stocks that we have on our introduction page.

OK... Does this mean that they just picked up winners stocks and some losers stocks to come up with that elaborate return based on 25K initial investment in their introductory page? Now, I don't know much about stocks and day trading or market timing but I can recreate their charteasily with better returns than what they are showing in their introduction page.. Looks hokey pokey to me... :shock:

Pyriel