Thread: The Hits Just Keep On Coming

If you are alwayslooking for bad news, you will always find it, anytime, anywhere.

I mentioned this before but it still amazes me... The creator of one of my favorite indicators (The ARMS index) Richard Arms, is such a perma-bear that I have lost all respect for him. Here are his headlines for his weekly article over the last two months, and this goes back for months like this. If he has been shorting, I'll bet he lost his a** because we know what the market has done over the last couple of months.

I don't suggest anyone jump in front of this bullish freight train until you can hear the brakes squeeling....


RealMoney-Commentary
Expect to See More of a Decline
12/8/20048:03 AM EST
ByDick Arms
The Nasdaq hasn't been this overbought in almost a year. It and the Dow seem to have run out of steam.

RealMoney-Commentary
Still Sideways, With Limited Upside
12/3/20048:00 AM EST
ByDick Arms
Short- and long-term indications are overbought, so the next 'big' move is likely to be down.

RealMoney-Commentary
Stock Standoff Will Melt Down
11/30/20048:00 AM EST
ByDick Arms
When this range breaks, the likely movement is down. Also, charts on LSI Logic, Centex, Intuit and more.

RealMoney-Commentary
Arms Index Points to Coming Slide
11/26/20048:00 AM EST
ByDick Arms
We could be in for a repeat of the 600-point drops we've seen twice already this year.

RealMoney-Commentary
Downturn May Follow Sideways Progress
11/23/20048:00 AM EST
ByDick Arms
The Dow and VIX suggest consolidation could have a while longer to go before a shift lower.

RealMoney-Commentary
Arms Index Gives Cause for Anxiety
11/19/20048:30 AM EST
ByDick Arms
In the short-term, the indecision that can mark a top is creeping in, and longer-term, a cycle is coming around again.

RealMoney-Commentary
Taking Some Profits Looks Prudent
11/17/20048:04 AM EST
ByDick Arms
It looks more like the start of a rolling over in the indices than preparation for resuming an advance.

RealMoney-Commentary
Market (Over)due for a Rest
11/12/20048:00 AM EST
ByDick Arms
The Dow has gone beyond expectations and previous peaks of the cycle, leaving it vulnerable.

RealMoney-Commentary
Market May Serve Up a Pullback
11/10/20047:04 AM EST
ByDick Arms
The Dow shows it could be near overhead resistance, and short-term Arms Index numbers have become overbought.

RealMoney- Ask Our Pros
Trend Lines
11/4/20042:50 PM EST
ByDick Arms
Charles Dow, the patriach of Technical Analysis said that two prominent points could...

RealMoney-Commentary
Rally a Culmination, Not a Start
11/4/20048:00 AM EST
ByDick Arms
The market correctly forecast the election over the pollsters, so the postelection rally may have already occurred.

RealMoney-Commentary
Markets Lack Vote of Confidence
11/2/20048:00 AM EST
ByDick Arms
The next short-term move should be down, but the election and oil cloud the outlook.

RealMoney-Commentary
Rally May Fail Near These Levels
10/29/20048:00 AM EDT
ByDick Arms
It looks like the recent move higher has met a tough level, and is having trouble penetrating it.

RealMoney-Commentary
Be Patient With the Bottoming Process
10/27/20048:00 AM EDT
ByDick Arms
Arms index readings have backed away from their extremes, but it's still best to wait before buying aggressively.

RealMoney-Commentary
Dow Lacks Drama but Turn May Be Coming
10/22/20049:28 AM EDT
ByDick Arms
An October low still seems likely, but climactic action remains missing.

RealMoney-Commentary
Market's Drop Looks Likely to Go On
10/20/20048:01 AM EDT
ByDick Arms
A short burst of strength over the last few sessions seems mainly to have cleared room to the downside.

Tom,

The economy is slowing down very fast. Inflation in my view is over GDP. I am just trying to point out that we all have to think about pulling the trigger and get out of stocks in the New Year very fast. Do not let this be a 2000 again for you guys and lose half your account values (again). My sell the last week of Jan really really saved my tosh that year as long with this year.

Low end retailers hurting, car makers can not move cars will all these deals, jobless claims raising and whole inventories spiking coupled with raising inflation and interest rates does not seem very bullish to me for stocks.

But I hope I am wrong...by view is if I can help one person then I am happy.

There is many other negatives I can list hurt but I am tired of getting lashed for pointing out them out.

Good luck!

Bill

MarketTimer wrote:

There is many other negatives I can list hurt but I am tired of getting lashed for pointing out them out.

I'm just telling the counterpoint. I guess my daily comments are bullish enough to do that. I don't disagree that we could see some selling sometime next year, and possibly a temporary lull in the economy. I just don't see a 2000 situation again. If you are in the G fund for the rest of the year we'll be able to gauge your results.

Good luck
Tom

MarketTimer wrote:

There is many other negatives I can list hurt but I am tired of getting lashed for pointing out them out.

For one with so much market intelligence, your grammar sux!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :P

Are damn it, areeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Oh btw, I went 50% C and 50% S this morning because you're in G...........hehe, haha..............Gonna be a big week next week, my momma told me so............
and momma is always right....................

Yeap, the retailers have been crying the last two weeks about weak sales. Costco was downgraded and low and behold theretail report comes out on Monday. I am sure it is going to be gainbusters based on what we heard the last two weeks. Friday was a GREAT DAY to get back in the market, if you were looking to lose money. The system may be new but the results never change. Once again you gather all the information and make the worse possible choice.

I am coming out of G fund on Monday and will be 20 G, 25 C, 50 S and 5 I. I want to have some in reserve if Dr Greenspan gets creative with the FOMC language. I feel I told you so wording moving forward is in the cards based on the PPI data.

Hey, once again you add a lot to the discussions on this board. You are like white noise...you hear something but it does not make any sense.

Attack me all you want. I really do not care. My TSP statement comforts me .

I bailed, the whimp in me comes out:PI will be looking at getting in Monday, depending on the market. I will watch the start. The market is a gamble. I ike all the comments. Helps me make a better decision, in the end. Several people made some very good calls on this sight.

:^

Learn,

Leave something on the side for the FOMC and trade balance report on the 14th. However we will have the Santa Rally to ring in the new year for the IRA funding (that happens every year) since people are brainwashed to fund their IRA as soon as possible.

Have a great week it should be a interesting one.

Good to see you have "learned" that some people on this board are bashers and some know what they are doing. Watch out for the "I have a system"folks and the ones that inputs are just to be nay sayers and put others down while PROVIDING no input to conversations or information that helps with investing decisions.

Bill

Amen to that Market Timer. The only way to predict the market is witha crystal ball and mines broken:l.

No it's not ou8. Likre your posts and if you "follow MT and Tom and make your own decisions, you'll do well this next year. Hello Market Timer!Covered the pontoon boat lateand wave runner into the garage and have snow now. It's close companionship now for 5 months and watching the marketplusthe positivepost here. Buy the way, I have a herd watching TSPTalk so we may only have 650 plus members but I have a lot watchingthat never had a clue in the past. They are too shy to post. So Tom, again thanks for this very special effort! I suspect this site is going to be like a brushfire, but certainly not here so far North. Ah, Phoenix in 10 days. But I'm acting like driftwood asMT has recentlyaccused others! I've crossed to C on Tuesday morning - 100% and expect to trade stocks for I hope 5 weeks unless the cudie gets me. I've listened to Acompora who says 25% gain this next 6 months and others that say our US economy is great, firing on all engines and will make 8- 12 percent this next year. I made 3/4 of thatjust this last November thanks to some help here! So if, let's say 10% is the benchmark for the year, who's up for "smart play" to beat that! Ok Tom,we need your"continued humor, honesty and contribution or lead" and a number of us will attempt to provide sage argumentto allow us tomake our own decisions. But what is important Tom is that there are probably double following what we post.Remember that all that post so the BS is just that!We can make this a great year with the help of the chaplain and so many others. Buy the way, my hands are stumps from turning wrenches so for those that a probelm with spelling and are operating on BD, excuse my spelling also. It doesn't matter as long as the jist of the post is undebvergodeen! Ah, than darm margaretta!

smedlap wrote:

It doesn't matter as long as the jist of the post is undebvergodeen! Ah, than darm margaretta!

I'll have what he's having.

On the long term I like the "I" fund.

On the short term I do not like the "I" fund. It gives and takes very quickly. When Dr. Greenspan talks people listen. He has indictated in the past that a weak dollar has it merits. That is a good thing. Never know what he is going to say. I suspect that he may say something that might back track a little, (nothing to back it, just a feeling. I suspect that he will try to help our market and so doing help the dollar). If he does this then the dollar will rebound.It's a gamble that I am not good enough to play. So for the short term it's above my fear factor. Long term the dollar is going down I believe. So later I will proably put money back in.

Best to all, be careful. RGDS