Market Talk

**Spaf** · 12-05-2004, 07:35 PM

The start of a new week!

Last week the stocks were up. The lower oil prices were a help along with some good economic data for the most part (with some exceptions). Hopefully, the stocks will continue to go up the rest of the year, and we wont have any events to derail the increases. As others have alluded to, December is traditionally a good month.

In my opinion the market changed from bear to bull around late October. How long it will stay that way, I really don't know. Hopefully for a long time. Do I have a exit strategy/plan if the market changes, yes I do!

My current allocations are in the TSP stock funds, including some I - fund holdings that I watch very closely.

Attached is a 6 month chart of the S&P with a 50 day moving average.

Regards and best wishes, but be careful!

Spaf

**Show-me** · 12-05-2004, 08:04 PM

Arnt ya gona share?

I have thought about it alot but do nothave a proven plan beings I'm new to this. When we see a "down turn" do you jump out or ease out?

I would think ease out unless it a big down turn.

Market Timer mentioned the "IRA Lemmings" flooding the market with their money before tax season. I never put it together until he mentioned it. Guess I learned something again. Watch out world!

**Rod** · 12-05-2004, 08:12 PM

Hey Show, this may interest you too:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,140476,00.html

God Bless:^

**Show-me** · 12-05-2004, 09:45 PM

Thanx Rod!

Very interesting.

**Spaf** · 12-05-2004, 11:25 PM

Show-me wrote:

Arnt ya gona share?

Sure I'll share! It is based in one of the sections in The Dow Theory in the Recommended Readings I left on this site

Show-me, One better,I'll send U a e-mail!

12-06-2004, 12:59 AM

One thing is for sure, a bear market separates the one's with actual plans from the ones that just leave and then come back when the market is up again..........

**Show-me** · 12-06-2004, 01:06 AM

That's why I'm ask'n Milk Man.

Mike's rule "The 7 P's" -Proper prior planning prevents **** poor performance.

Thanks Spaf. Good luck this week.

12-06-2004, 01:48 AM

Show-me wrote:

Mike's rule "The 7 P's" -Proper prior planning prevents **** poor performance.

There's also mlkman's 7 p's : People posting post performance prices perform perfectly.............and : posting pre-market postures proves pre-existing plans, period.........ask MT..............:^

**coolhand** · 12-06-2004, 02:09 AM

The story on taxes provides yet another of many pieces of what makes the market tick. Perhaps we'll see some consolidation this week. Don't be surprised.

Here's a story about this year's Santa Clause Rally. Remember, it's only an opinion piece.

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/the.../10197413.html

Oh yeah, don't forget to keep your eye on the "I"...

.

**smedlap** · 12-06-2004, 02:26 AM

Thanks Coolhand. To make already what the market traditionally provides for the month is not heartwarming. I say the OPEC meeting on Friday where expected reductions in production are to be raised (oil will continue to drop despite) and the FOMC (.25 raise due to a poor jobs report) on Tuesday are the 2 major events that will cause some temporary consolidation. So oil continuing to drop, expected rate hike, a continued dollar declineand a fair S&P market value of 1225 (3% still to gain).

What say you Tom. I'm not watching I. I'm all the way in. But the US market is still the best!

**Spaf** · 12-06-2004, 03:35 AM

smedlap

Tom has already posted his comments!

He has a fairly good insite or position for a consolidation period in our continued bullish market. I have a job that sometimes takes me away from constant computer access. This is one of those sometimes.

I can go with Tom's position, and even allocate more towards the US funds.
I'll transfer tonight, for Monday at: 35G, 20C, 30S, and 15I.

.................................................. .................................................. ..............

Did the transfer, and noticed something. I took Mike's M_M advice and sent all new monthly allocations to the G - Fund. There it was. Hey, Thanks Mike! Learn sumptin ever day :^!

Hey! Keep the posts going, enjoy, and be careful. Rgds

Spaf

**Show-me** · 12-06-2004, 04:30 AM

I came across this cruz'n the Asian Markets.

Associated Press
Mahathir Calls for Less Reliance on Dollar
Sunday December 5, 11:09 pm ET

Malaysia's Mahathir Urges Countries to Reduce Reliance on U.S. Dollar

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) -- Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad urged countries and companies Monday to curb their reliance on the U.S. dollar and increase their holdings in the euro and the yen.
"Euros, pounds and yen would be safer to keep than (the) U.S. dollar," Mahathir said in a speech to an East Asian conference of government officials and business leaders. "I would urge countries and businesses to switch to euro and yen (holdings) or buy gold."
Mahathir said the move would help countries from being hurt too much by oil price increases, which were considerably higher when measured in U.S. dollars compared to the other currencies.

Don't know how this guy rates in the world but will this cause a buzz? Hate to be a nay sayer. I don't write it.