Thread: 3 Peaks and a Dome House

Last year's stats clearly support your advice and I myself planto rotateto G Friday 3rd week in Jan. Feb is a clear downer. But March and April should be good months and the market is forcasted to be a good play next year. I realize we are both talking too far out but I agree with you without question thru the end of February - both last year and historic trend analysis! Last year we had the influence of an election and a war. But we'll see as we get closer. As you say Forengi rule 1 - get the money when you can!

Actually if you go back 20-25 years (hey that was when hedge funds started - one and one make market monopolization). you will see the pattern over and over run up starting Nov - run down starting the end of Feb.

Spitz will not stick it to the hedge funds because he invests in them - funny how that works!

2003 was a little different (but it started off the same) with the retroactive tax cuts on March 2003.

Good luck. The trend is your friend. Good to bank your gains anyway...what goes up like this is sure to go down just as fast.

U.S. dollar weakness is good for U.S. companies? Hey Europe is boycotting U.S. products...look at Coke, Pepsi, McDonalds, Walmart, etc, etc. I was in the Walmart and England and had the place to myself. Pretty scary going to Subway (I was alone there also) and a foot long was $17U.S.

Good day!

smedlap wrote:

Last year's stats clearly support your advice and I myself planto rotateto G Friday 3rd week in Jan. Feb is a clear downer. But March and April should be good months and the market is forcasted to be a good play next year. I realize we are both talking too far out but I agree with you without question thru the end of February - both last year and historic trend analysis! Last year we had the influence of an election and a war. But we'll see as we get closer. As you say Forengi rule 1 - get the money when you can!

By last year, do you mean earlier this year or 2003? I surely can't be talking about earlier this year.........

Ialso believe we will have reason totake cover sometime early next year but you have to be careful. If you notice my January 2004allocation, I was 100% G fund the entire month of January and also for much of the first 4 months of the year, as I (my indicators) anticipated the consolidation. The problem was the market didn't read my indicators and S&P 500 wouldn't relent. It didn't make it's final high until early March.

Again in July my indicators said good things were coming. But the consolidation wanted to continue. The market is like a freight train and sometimes you have to wait for the momentum to stop before you change teams. As some of you have said, the trend is your friend. You don't always have to wait for a trend change, but you should respect the momentum when it appears you are wrong.

I have my indicators to help me but I learned a lot in 2004 about repecting the market action first.

Mlk Man - Thanks, my stats are for Jan 04 and I plan mytransfer out Jan 05. Tom has added some further information below which underscores the point that we play the market day to day with the best info!

MLK,

Around 14 March 2003 we had the tax cut on divs/cap gains. Coupled with the 1% emergency fed fund rate that caused the bull market rally in a bear market which normally last for nine to ten months. Dr Greenspan should of immediately went to 1.50% fund rate and start tightening back then. By the way tax cuts normally help the market for 18 months until the market starts to head down again. We are coming up to that period.

Europe is slowing to a 0% GDP and Japan is doing even worse on the brink of a recession again.

I am getting nervous now. The big rumour on the 8th was Germany and France were going to sell 220 tons of gold (which caused the dollar to raise). But if you notice a ton of foreign investors sold a ton of treasuries on that "rumour". Because that caused the dollar to go up strongly. By the end of the day the treasuries were sold and the dollar was about where it started for the day.

The trade report next week is really going to whack us I believe.

The thing that will continue the rally will be the reinvested div/cap gains come up on the end of the year and then the funding of IRAs the first week of January. After that I really do not what is going to be the ingredient to keep the market up at these levels. Inflation at the same time as slowing earnings is a very bad thing. If you have been watching the news Colgate, IBM etc etc are going to cut a lot of jobs.

If we go to flat tax like is being talked about that is very, veryy bad for the little guy like us...that means your TSPs will no longer lower your taxes and you will be unable to write of mortgage interest - good by housing bubble. This happened in if you remember in 1987. You were no longer able to write off credit card/loan interest and boom we had the largest two day downturn in the S&P 500 in its history. I highly recommend everyone max out their TSP just to get the tax cut now. Funding your ROTH should be if you can afford it. The reason you may have to pay tax on the ROTH that is now tax free because a flat tax means you pay tax on what you buy...not income tax. Think about that.

Good luck Milk. I am really trying to help on this board. I do not mean to come across as a know it all but I have been investing for over 24 years and have done fairly well.

Actually in January I am being interviewed as a co manager in a hedge fund in Florida.I very much I hope I get that job. I am pretty tired of my present job.

Good luck!



mlk_man wrote:

smedlap wrote:

Last year's stats clearly support your advice and I myself planto rotateto G Friday 3rd week in Jan. Feb is a clear downer. But March and April should be good months and the market is forcasted to be a good play next year. I realize we are both talking too far out but I agree with you without question thru the end of February - both last year and historic trend analysis! Last year we had the influence of an election and a war. But we'll see as we get closer. As you say Forengi rule 1 - get the money when you can!

By last year, do you mean earlier this year or 2003? I surely can't be talking about earlier this year.........

Tom,

You appear to agreeing with my crystal ball.

Ialso believe we will have reason totake cover sometime early next year but you have to be careful.

Raising inflation and lower earnings is not helpful for stocks.

I am concerned right now about the credit rating of U.S. treasuries. This week the U.S. government sold 70B worth and we really have step up treasury sales since the U.S. dollar has fallen sharply since Sep 04. To make social security reform work the U.S. government will need to put another 1-3B of treasuries on auction. Foreign U.S. treasury holders will not continue to hold U.S. treasures at these yield rates while their currency is going up double digits every quarter.

Currently we are spending 20% more then we are taking in. In your personal life how long can you go on spending 20% more then your income?

I know the hedge fund guys are getting nervous and are thinking of selling off until the last week of December. I am thinking about doing that also. There is lots of bad news moving forward....trade deficient report and if Dr Greenspan puts some nasty comments on his fed report we could be in trouble. We have to keep in mind Dr Greenspan will have to step down Jan 06....he may use the fed reports to speak the truth and then after he retires he can say I told you so.

Some of my gurus are Jim Rogers/Bill Gross, etc, etc. They both have put out 2005 is going to be a bad year and 2006 is going to be horrible.

It may be a good plan to step aside until the end of December. I am thinking of going to G fund on the fed day (however that is the same day the trade report comes out)...if we get another record trade balance.

Sorry can not finish this...but do not want to lose the above.

Bill

P.S. I believe the hedge funds are getting out of the market and we will see a down day today.

MarketTimer wrote:

Good luck Milk. I am really trying to help on this board. I do not mean to come across as a know it all but I have been investing for over 24 years and have done fairly well.

Actually in January I am being interviewed as a co manager in a hedge fund in Florida.I very much I hope I get that job. I am pretty tired of my present job.

Good luck!

Wish you the best of luck on the new job. We spend to much time at work not to be happy there. I believe that most if not all like to hear all ideas. Regardless if we agree with them or not. It gives us something to think and talk about. Speaking for me the more ideas on the board the better.

P.S. Where do you see the I fund going?

I fund,

The rumour of the 220 tons of gold being sold yesterday really helped the U.S. dollar and hurt the I Fund. A lot of countriesSURPRISE sold their U.S. treasury holdings yesterday(over 90B of 10 and 30 year) - funny how that works!!! Japan and Europe are in bad shape. Germany has an uemployment rate of 14% as an example. Japan is in a bad way:

Yen Weakens After Japan's Economy Expanded Less Than Expected
Bloomberg- Dec 7, 2004
Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell against the dollar after a government report showed Japan's economy grew less than expected in the third quarter, raising ...
Yen Erases Gains After Japan's Economy Grows Less Than Expected Bloomberg


World economies are slowing down. All stocks are not looking very good...because stocks do not do well in raising inflation and slowing earnings environment.

I have been saying since I have been on this board that 2005 is not going to be a good year for the market. The facts coming out week after week are starting to back up my view point.

Good luck!

Today I fund will be crushed .

MarketTimer wrote:

Actually in January I am being interviewed as a co manager in a hedge fund in Florida.I very much I hope I get that job. I am pretty tired of my present job.

Good luck!

So that's why you hate the fact that I have a "system"............

Milk,

If it works for you...stay with it. I hope that we can share ideas here.

Nikkei just closed down 165. I fund is 25% Japan...I fund is going to have a big down day.

MT