Market Talk

**Spaf** · 11-29-2004, 12:08 AM

As of the start of a new week, some of the market news indicated that stocks could struggle.

Uncertainity was indicated in the pending jobs report data, high energy prices, and upcomming tech sector reports.

I guess it depends on how you see a glass of water, half full, or half empty!

The market, using the S&P 500 seems to be treading water (waiting) around the 1180 level. We have a bull market, and it could be firming up, just waiting for some good news to give it that push for futher advance.

For the month of November, until the 26th,we had about 18 days of market activity. The TSP funds changed in their share pricing, increase/decrease as follows:
G = +.03, F = -.02, C = +.58, S = +.89, I = +.87.

Will be staying in stocks for the forseeable future, and will tweak the funds on Monday to: C=25, S=45, and I=30, based on recent activity. i.e., I will go average with intnl funds (30% of stock investments),proportion the US stocks,diversifying in all 3 funds.

Attached is a chart of the S&P 500 (3 months) with a 50 day moving average.

Be careful!

Spaf

**coolhand** · 11-29-2004, 03:17 PM

Interesting start to the new week. Futures were up big to start, but the indices fell back on short order. Tech sector still holding its own, but for how long?

Bonds may be the big story today. If this selling continuesinterest rates will become a factor at some point.I suspect wehave a way to go yet before it impacts stocksmuch, but bond traders are getting nervous about the forex market. Oil isn't helping either. I think we may want to maintain some exposure to the "I" fund in the event the dollar takes a bigger hit. I also think havingsomething in reserve in the "G" fund will helpreduce risk as well as maintain some of the recent gains. Of course it must be played day-to-day. My opinion only.

Good call this morning Tom.

**Spaf** · 11-29-2004, 08:56 PM

The market showed resilence in the afternoon, shaking off some of the Wall-Mart decline. I have to agree with Tom that the market has strength. It just needs some good news!

Won't be stopping by WMT soon.

**Mike** · 11-29-2004, 11:19 PM

I fund rose $.06, S $.02, and C fell $.04.

Glad I kept something in the I fund.

**coolhand** · 11-29-2004, 11:46 PM

Lots of economic data coming out this week. After reviewing Briefing.com I didn't see anything thatmight spook the market. If unemployment falls a tenthof one percent that may be the catalyst that moves the market higher :P. Even if it it stays where it is I still think we have more upside to equities.

I was a little concerned about the bond sell-off this morning as I thought the traders may see something coming in the way of forex dollar selling (maybe they do and maybe they don't). There seems more talk every day of the possibility. If it was to happen I'm not sure how significant it would be in terms of rising interest rates. It's a double edged sword for them as rising interest rates here hurts their export paradigm.

Since I'm also playing for a consolidation (or anything else negative) I am keeping something inreserve in "G", but I am going to up my "S" allocation from 20% to 40% tomorrow.That willput me at30/40/30 GSI in the morning (from 50/20/30).

Spaf, it is a strong bull (like Tom said). Buyers were there to pick up the market later in the day. That certainly seems to indicate a lot of investors expect more upside in the short term at least.

Mike, I'm with you. "I" fund has been a good place to be :^.

**Spaf** · 11-30-2004, 01:41 AM

Mike.....Coolhand

I only got a chance to review some of the data in the economic calendar. I agree, I didn't see anything that could freak out the market. It looker pretty consistant to me. And, yes we do need a catalyst to push the market into an advance. This is going into the 2nd week of 1180 (+or-5) for the S&P. Wall-Mart was like taxing into an unseen pothole.

Yep! The I fund has been a keeper since about mid August. The TSP has good funds, you just got to watch them.

Attached is a 6 mo chart for the EAFE fund with a 50 day moving average. Years ago when they first came to TSP they were shunned, now they areflying high.

See Ya, and be careful!

Spaf

11-30-2004, 01:48 AM

Quick question? What alerts do I need to be watching for that could show the value of the US dollar going up and what affect would that have on the I fund?

:dude::?

**smedlap** · 11-30-2004, 02:05 AM

Value of the dollar goes up, it eats away at share profit. Dollar deteriorates - it increases inshare profit. Go to http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/ market data.:^

**Spaf** · 11-30-2004, 02:14 AM

Ab

A lot of the financial sites have info on currencies. TSP has a fund info sheet for the I fund. I think it is in their Returns and share prices section.
http://money.cnn.com/market/currencies is but one of many. Ever so often Tom will show his chart of the dollar.
You are investing in other countries. So when the dollar goes up, they buy for less.

Hi Smedlap

**smedlap** · 11-30-2004, 02:35 AM

Just a side note ab - I just checked my portfolio and the 32% I fund increase for me actually played out as a 40% overall account increase once the $ exchange play was applied (dollar decline). Naturally it could go the other way in a rising $ environment.

**tsptalk** · 11-30-2004, 03:21 AM

ablingbutch wrote:

Quick question? What alerts do I need to be watching for that could show the value of the US dollar going up and what affect would that have on the I fund?

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex

**Spaf** · 11-30-2004, 06:39 PM

I think I see a flat market based on the horizontal price movement

The market has been going sideways since last week.
Eventually it will go up, but it will need a catalyst, to kick start the movement.
Now is the time to check allocations, and ensure you have the mix you want. Tom had some good advice so it appears.
The short term outlook for the market is unclear. The big picture is that it is moving sideways.