Thread: Market Talk

For anyone that has been interested in my ramblings about the dollar here is another article that continues to point to an ever weaker dollar.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/257979a6-30...00e2511c8.html

The "I" fund is looking like it will continue its upward trajectory. I am going to reallocate my portfolio Monday to gain exposure to the "I" fund. I am currently 50% "C" and 50% "S".Not sure yet what my new allocation will be, but will probably go 33% "I".

Another view on the dollar.

Coolhand / Paul Tks!

WOW! You have got to see this, especially the math members!
The TSP web site in their "TSP Highlights for October 2004" lists the TSP fund balances, by fund, totals, and number of participants.

RE: http://www.tsp.gov/index.html

The RE will take you to TSP Headlines. Then go to Participant Statements and Highlights, Then to TSP Highlights.
Your looking for "TSP Highlights for October 2004".

As I see the numbers. [TSP has $138.8 billion with 3.3 million participants [with average porportional investments of, as I see it: Approximately G = 42%, F = 7%, C = 42%, S = 5%, and I = 3%]].

Paul wrote:

Another view on the dollar.

Another good analysis. This one points to a strengthening dollar given the cited factors in the article. The question is how long before the dollar strenthens. The article says over the next few months. It also seems to indicate that China will keep its Yuan pegged to the dollar. I need to digest this. Not all of it makes sense to me.

Thanks Paul.

RE: Sunday post to possible change allocations.
After seeing Monday openings, decided to remain with light to moderate allocations and not get aggressive at this time. Advances/corrections could go either way. Market could be firming up, correcting, or just waiting for the Wednesday Fed report, etc. Don't know? So I'll stay with 25-20-25-25-5 for now!

Will be continuing my allocations as mod/light. However, the F fund pricing went below the 20D MA and my P-SAR gave a stop reverse to go short.
Changing allocations to 50%G, 25%C, and 25%S for tomorrow.

The I fund is a good performer, but I'll let coolhand and Paul research it futher.

There is mixed talk if the current pullback or correction will be mild or moderate.

The FOMC will meet Wed. 9:00ET, with announcement at 2:15ET.

I've read too many articles that indicate the dollar may not have hit its low yet to ignore all the data. Here is another one that supports my stance.

http://caps.blogspot.com/

As I mentioned this morningIreallocated my TSP positions today and went 60% "C", 10% "S", and 30% "I". I like the "C" fund because it is notas interest rate sensitive as the "S" is and I am taking a moderate position in the "I" fund simply because I believe there is more up side in the short term.

Things are getting real interesting in the market right now. Europe is not happy with the continuing decline of the dollar and Asia is still trying to keep their products streaming across the Pacific to the U.S.further extending our trade deficit (and I think they will succeed for awhile yet). Monetary policies may have to change down the road, but when?

Please understand that Iam not making recommendations or predictions. I only offer an opinion based oninformationI collectand my interpretation of it. I do not believe everything I read and strive to poke holes in any analysis. The market has a mind of its own and does not always conform to our expectations (what else is new). I welcome your opinions:^.

Another indicator of the world's viewof the dollar is gold. Gold is increasing in value. Remember, the U.S. dollar is considered the monetary world standard. And when the market gets spooked by a weak dollar, gold tends to go up in price.



This is just the last month. See a trend?

Here's an article to go along with the chart.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...mmodities_dc_1

I do not believe the weak dollar is something that will reverse course in short order. Our economic policy is attempting to reduce our trade deficit by making our products cheaper than those overseas and our national debt shows no signs of reversing either.

The article Paul provided had some points I agreed with, but also seemed to contradict itself in a couple of paragraphs.Most other reports I've read are mostly in agreement with what I have posted.

I am very interested in what China does. Are they going to discontinue pegging their currency to the dollaror switch to a basket of currencies approach.

If the market gets much more uncomfortable with the dollars descent there could possibly be a much stronger dollar sell-off. I am trying to position myself to benefit from that very real possibililty, but am also watching for any sign of strengthening. Let's see if Alan Greenspan has anything to say about this.

Lot's of good stuff here... One thing to note, what we see here in the past few weeks/months is a not to distant reminder of 1979-1980 era. check the archives. One story/stat to read. http://www.technicalindicators.com/gold.htm
It's intersting when you look at the similarities?
Dollar down...Gold rises...International UP UP UP! Oil UP!
Although I know little about any of this, I try to look for similarities in addition to paying attention to what everyone else has to say. Including the FED? I think even if the market reacts negatively to what the FED has to say on Wednesday, it will return to it's current trend by the end of the day of the following. This site is great. Thanks for letting us be a part of it.

Quench / Coolhand
Enjoyed your comments :^. I use Yahoo a lot for stock charts and etc. The US Dollar vs EUR can be found at http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=usdeur%3Dx FYI Yahoo uses the symbol USDEUR=X. They have the Trade, Charts, and Headlines. The chart has some variables for different time frames.
I know you are helping all listeners by continuing your reasearch into the I fund.:i

In synopsis for other listeners:The fund is suppose to match the EAFE index, and it has a twofold risk of both market and currency. In 2003 the fund earned 38.6%, but almost half was due to the decline of the dollar. If unchanged the return would have been around 20.3%. Thus, it is also the most complicated fund, and the least held fund by TSP members. However, for the month of October it was the top performer with a +0.35, and the next best fund was the F fund at +0.12. Thus when the C & S funds are down, the I fund could well be the place to go, but not before it's understood and evaluated with the risk it carries.

Does anybody have a feeling for the C-fund for the next couple of days?