Thread: Market Talk

Cont'd
My bull bear meter: Bear 1060........^........1140 Bull is at 1096 or half way.
According to what I've read (Thanks LK! for the News Letter), 2005 may be a low gainer year. However a rally should be near for the end of 2004 (a definite maybe).

Feelings are that mutual fund managers shift to buying and cash flow increases after October 31. Thats a week away! The week of November 1st maybe good flying for a while.

Worth watching and worth talking about? Spaf

I'm up 0.6% this year, so you know how much (little) my advice is worth.

Of course, this percentage swings quite wildly with the market chop combined with my low balance, so I could go from looking like an idiot to looking like a genius in about two weeks' time in these cycles. :shock:

One of these days, I'll devise a system (aside from the current uttering of profanity every time the market cycles back down again). I think it'll involve a blindfold and copious amounts of alcohol each time I make a transfer.

Mike - Any plan is better than no plan. You can always modify your plan later!

How about this:

Upcoming transfers:

1st) Vodka
2nd) Rum
3rd) Schnapps

If any of the above fail to generate a profit, perhaps a mixture of the three is in order. Plus I could always sue the maker of the blindfold and the alcohol producers for bad market advice.

Can anyone explain how the S fund went up today when the market was down. I was pleasantly surprised, but dumbfounded. Thanks

Yeah that's why I almost quit looking at the yahoo chart! I just figured I had not mastered the art of chart viewing and stocks rising/lowering!!! I was getting confused....so I just leave it in C, S, I and sometimes G.

ou81200 wrote:

Can anyone explain how the S fund went up today when the market was down. I was pleasantly surprised, but dumbfounded. Thanks

Small caps did well today. I think a few small company earnings reports came out today.

OU - The index for the Wilshire 4500 closed slightly up. Some items of the market were up, some down.

From October 1st to today (Oct. 25) the share prices for TSP funds have been:
G = +0.03, F = +0.13, C = -0.38, S = -0.25, I = +0.06

Since late September through October, the C,S,I funds have been giving fluctuating readings within the parabolic SAR signals, due to market volitility to otherwise notindicate a clear buy or sell. However, in looking at the big picture (using S&P) the current market is in a downward cycle, and the market since Feburary continues to be bearish.Where this current cycle will break is now the big question for timing.

Any opinions???

I'm not a stock guru, but I'll give my opinion.



The bearish cycle we're currently in is founded on three things.

1. Oil prices

2. Coming elections

3. This weeks earning reports.

As for oil prices, the price has been going up for a while now so this may have allready been factored in share prices. Even with the price of oil over 54 Dollars a barrel, transportation, homebuilding, and utilities showed relative strength (MSN Money).

Coming Elections----Late last week, CNN showed Bush and Kerry at 48% each. I'm sure that has changed by now, but it's still close. this uncertainty is reflected with the way the market is going. I believe after the elections, the short term will be favorable for the C and S fund.

This weeks earnings. Well this weeks earnings-----Well they STUNK!!! Nuff said on that.

Well that's it on my opinion .

Well I can't argue with any of that. The good news, I believe, is that the market is hanging tough despite of all of this bad news. I have been pounding the bullish table for several months now with not much movement either way actually. The bears can't be happy (we're up 3% from the lows) and the bulls are getting frustrated (down 4% from recent highs). We are still consolidating. Short termers might play the chop, longer termers have to pick a side. I'm still bullish looking forward.

3rd quarter earnings were mostly pretty good. What's weighing on the market is the projected earnings for the 4th quarter - many companies are revising these downward.

Oil prices and the upcoming election are certainly hurting us at the moment.