Market Talk

**Spaf** · 10-18-2004, 11:26 PM

Another up day. Good! Oil closed out at $52.84. Still high, hopefully it will go down more. I still see the volitality in the market, and will wait for it to calm down. Allocations holding at 90% G, and 10% F.

Careful!

**clester** · 10-18-2004, 11:53 PM

S up 5 cents, I down 3 cents. IBM should help for tomorow.
Looks like we may be heading back up. Lots of earnings and economic data tomorow though. 50% S 50% I.

**tsptalk** · 10-19-2004, 12:53 AM

clester wrote:

I down 3 cents.

That surprised me. Looked like the EFA was up .40% and the dollar was down. Maybe they did a little readjusting?? :*

**Spaf** · 10-19-2004, 05:13 AM

Well Tom. I thought the $ was up.
I switched from DSL to cable. So far I've stuck my foot on the cable line twice and been dropped online!!!
Anyway, It's time we were thinking about Thanksgiving and Christmas! I've got my letter to Santa all prepared.
See attachment! :^

**Cinderella** · 10-19-2004, 01:48 PM

Spaf, Hope that Christmas wish comes true........

**Dakota** · 10-20-2004, 01:20 AM

can anyone explain how the I fund showed to be down in the index but gained .14 in tsp shares column?

**Spaf** · 10-20-2004, 03:49 AM

Thanks Cinderella! Dakota, I ain't got a clue (typo maybe?).

I have a concern over the market's rather violent ups and downs since Sept. 22nd. From mid August to Sept 21st we had a steady rise from the lows, and then this volitality sets in, see attached S&P chart with the red arrow section. We have had some good earnings from IBM, TI and others vs investigations and crude over $50.

Does the market know something? Or, isthe marketjust flustrated?

I'm game to play the market, but since Sept 22nd I haven't seen anything worth playing. My 2 cents. If others see something I'm missing, please talk!

Careful! :?

**tsptalk** · 10-20-2004, 04:04 AM

Dakota wrote:

can anyone explain how the I fund showed to be down in the index but gained .14 in tsp shares column?

We talked about that in another forum. I'll cut & paste the exchange...

FundSurfer wrote:

The good thing is that the TSP index of the I fund did well today despite the index being down 0.2%. Interesting to me is how different they ended up today. I usually follow the indexes on Yahoo, but that doesn't always hit the mark. I wonder what causes the difference.

Believe it or not, because the markets are open all night, there is some guesswork involved on the part of the EAFE index managers. It was odd to me that the I fund was down Monday so i thought they'd make adjustments today, and they did. That was why in the comments I said...

"The I fund may do well today. I think I'll get out for tomorrow....
...But something is happening that is makes me want to make a transfer this morning. The dollar has been scraping the bottom of its recent trend channel (see chart below) so I wouldn't be surprised if it has a little bounce here soon. That means the I fund may not be the best place to be...after today. I actually expect a nice pop in the I fund today so, if I am right, today may be the day to step aside. I'll jump back in if the dollar moves up some."

We discussed this a while back if you are interested. Here is the link...http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum14/93.html

Tom

**Mike** · 10-20-2004, 09:02 AM

The market turned volatile because it's getting mixed messages. There were some solid earnings reports, but oil continues to move up (although it dipped a bit the other day due to profit-taking). The election is now just two weeks away, and all of the polls indicate it is too close to call (although it now appears that Bush is starting to open up a small lead).

I'm getting this odd feeling in the back of my mind - that the market is about to rally. Is anyone else getting that feeling?