Market Talk

**Spaf** · 10-10-2004, 04:20 PM

Market actions of last week were a bit violent. While a pull back was a possibility, the actual volume loss was unexpected. My system can't react to such voraciousness. It's like the soft patch turned into a a wash out!

In the last 15 days 9-20 to 10-8 the TSP funds have recorded gains/losses accordingly: G = .02, F = (.02), C = .01, S = .12, I = .46

Market returns are now at a critical point, presently declining to the point of possibly crossing under the moving average of 20 days and reversing signals of the P-SAR.

Current market sentiment is critical for Q4: The price of oil and other commodities, economic performance and corporate profitability are the factors likely to affect the stock market. The longer oil stays at $50 a barrel or more, and it shows no sign right now of falling, the more it will eat into consumer purchasing power, economic growth and stock prices. Future economic growth is another wild card. Recent data have given a mixed picture, with jobs creation falling short of expectations.

Presently we are in the marginal area of Bears vs Bulls. Economics are playing hard against the market. The Bearish decline of trending cycles has not been clearly broken. The present reality is one of caution, with no clear signals of what will happen tomorrow.

My consideration is that conditions now have too great a risk. Should be in the G fund, untill turbulent conditions clear.
Attached is the S&P Yahoo chart ending 10-8-04. What Monday brings:*??

**Spaf** · 10-10-2004, 08:36 PM

Well some good news out there!
U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow predicted on Sunday skyrocketing oil prices were set to go down and said Middle Eastern finance ministers had responded positively to his request to boost output quotas.
-------------------------
The First Law of Economists: For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist.

The Second Law of Economists: They're both wrong.

**Mike** · 10-11-2004, 09:55 AM

The I fund made a new high for the year on Friday. The C fund came within a whisker of making a new high last week as well (just 3 cents short of it).

Gotta love the volatility though...

**ou81200** · 10-11-2004, 10:32 AM

I went ahead and put in an order to pull out of the I fund this morning. I will have 50% C, and 50%S after changes take place. I saw some news where European stocks were coming off of five month highs.

Question for anyone. Right now I have the maximum deductions coming out for the TSP fund. This comes out to about 250 dollars every two weeks. This does not include the matching amount. After building the account to let's say 100,000 dollars, would it still be advantagious to keep the maximum deductions going in. Right now, having the deductions going in my account has a big effect on my balance. But as my account grows, this will decrease percentage wise.

Any advise is appreciated

**Dakota** · 10-11-2004, 12:49 PM

always put in as much as you can. Thats the way I see it:^

**Dakota** · 10-11-2004, 12:50 PM

Dakota wrote:

always put in as much as you can. Thats the way I see it:^

when is open season? whats the projected outlook for the week? all replies appreciated

**Cinderella** · 10-11-2004, 01:01 PM

Dakota, The next open season is Oct 15 through Dec 31, 2004.

Please understand what I want to happen in the market and what will actually happen are two different things, but I am looking for a bull breakout any day now.

**Dakota** · 10-11-2004, 01:18 PM

Thanks, can we (during open season ) up our contributions on-line

**Cinderella** · 10-11-2004, 01:34 PM

The way to enroll, change the amount of your TSP contributions, or stop contributing to the TSP depends on your agency. This is explained at www.tsp.gov Click on Account Access and go into Contribution Elections.

**Dakota** · 10-11-2004, 01:40 PM

Thanks cinderella, I guess I have to wait a few days anyhow. I appreciate:u

**Cinderella** · 10-11-2004, 02:04 PM

ou81200 wrote:

I went ahead and put in an order to pull out of the I fund this morning. I will have 50% C, and 50%S after changes take place. I saw some news where European stocks were coming off of five month highs.

Question for anyone. Right now I have the maximum deductions coming out for the TSP fund. This comes out to about 250 dollars every two weeks. This does not include the matching amount. After building the account to let's say 100,000 dollars, would it still be advantagious to keep the maximum deductions going in. Right now, having the deductions going in my account has a big effect on my balance. But as my account grows, this will decrease percentage wise.

Any advise is appreciated

Hi ou81200, There are some good posts on this forum covering investment portfolios. Look under "Financial Planning Talk" and the subtitle of "Retirement Planning". A few of the threads that cover maxing the TSP and/or a TSP/IRA mix are found under "How Much Should One Save" and "TSP and Roth". Hope this helps. If not, ask more questions.

**Spaf** · 10-11-2004, 03:06 PM

My 2 cents on Savings
In TSP the government will match a %. It would be foolish not to take advantage of this free money. Nuf said, everyone has to do the math for their own finances. Some of us will have money form inheritance, property, etc. TSP is one of three legs of the FERS retirement system. The money in TSP can be used several ways after retirement. If one transfers it to a IRA, generally 4% can be withdrawn annually and the rest can grow with retirement. However (big word), other funds are needed! Emergencies, health, roof leaks, etc. My choise was to open a seperate account that mirrowed TSP funds with Fidelity Investments, that are not tax deferred. TSP is a retirement leg, remember, you will need other funds. Wish we could all win the lottery!!