Market Talk / Nov. 17 - Nov. 24

**Spaf** · 11-17-2007, 11:01 PM

Market Talk
Saturday Edition
November 17, 2007

Introductory Commentary:

The Market Talk thread was discontinued in October due to a feeling that participation was somewhat lacking.
Well this was true, but for the wrong reason.

Trading is not a simple issue.
The CRASH of 2000 killed the concept of buy and holding!
We now have three class of investors within TSP:
1. we have folks on "auto-pilot" in the lifecycle Funds or individual funds G-F-C-S-I.
2. we have "position" traders that will take a position for weeks, months, or even a year.
3. we have "swing" traders that will take a position for days or weeks.
[Note: "Day Traders" don't hold positions in securities overnight]

TSPTalk has some excellent products that can be followed to enhance your investments:
Premium Services:
- The Ebb Chart System. Last I looked Ebb was at a +18.69%
- Trader Fred.
- Reverend Shark.
Free Services:
-Sentiment Survey. It was at +16.53% last I looked.
-TSPTalk Longer term market commentary.
Other Services
- Various Tally's (how folks are doing)!
- Tracker (again, how folks are doing)!

There is a concept of Risk vs Reward
To analysis this concept it is good to look at the TSP Lifecycle Funds

Fund.........Time horizon to retire.........Capital Preservation.........% F+G Funds
2040.........28 or more years...............Low........................... ...17
2030.........18 - 27............................Low................. .............27
2020.........08 - 17............................Low................. .............38
2010.........03 - 07............................Moderate............ ...........59
L-Income...00 - 02............................High................ ..............80

Next we want to look at trading skills.
How well do you understand Market Fundamentals and Technical Analysis?
i.e., Are subprime loans important?
i.e., What is the consumer confidence?
i.e., Is the market (prices) overbought or oversold?
Are we headed into a recession or just moderate growth?

So this is part and parcel of "Market Talk" We each have our own considerations. Whether we are new to TSP or in retirement. Whether we want to be buy and holders, position traders or swing traders. How much lets us sleep at nights! If bunny hopping at 100% in retirement causes a loss of sleep, maybe we need a new strategy, if not the energized bunny is fine and dandy :-)

**Spaf** · 11-18-2007, 06:31 AM

Market Talk
Sunday Edition
November 18, 2007

General Commentary:

Stocks ended last week in a rockey session. The market can't seem to find any traction to the upside. The holidays are approching and there was a lot of portfolio adjustments. The market will closed this Thursday, but maybe we will be getting near a low that is tradeable. Here is hoping for a holiday rally! The Bulls have the calendar on their side. The best months for stocks run from November 1st to April 30th.

However, we need to wait for some market stability and not be too aggressive.

Economics / Fundamentals:

We may not have the true picture on the mortgage meltdown, the housing market, how the consumer really feels, or how much the crude folks are going to [bleep] us......

Economic News - CNNMoney

NYMEX crude - wtrg

Technical Analysis:

The Dow was up 134.05 and the S&P was up 5.04 points for the week. However, the S&P is below it's 13 day moving average. This is a "bearish" signal and trending to trade even lower. There is also increased volatility in the stocks as expressed by the widening of the Bollinger Bands. Some good news is that the Stochastics oscillator is returning to somewhat oversold conditions at 18.93 (see chart).

We don't have any stops set because of the lows. So far we don't have a trend. Things are kind of lukewarm.

A look at the chart(s)
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

TSP / TSPTalk / and me

My allocations can be found in my signature and the Tally / Tracker. The real theme is your own risk tolerance and skills. We need to actively manage our accounts. Not that we want to be glued to the Lilly Pad (G-Fund) but neither do we want to be swimming in a pool of sharks!

TSP Share Prices:
Week Ending........G=12.21..F=11.79..C=16.41..S=19.72.. I=24.67
End of 2006.........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I =22.22

Have a good week! And, be careful out there!......

......Spaf

**Spaf** · 11-18-2007, 05:34 PM

Market Talk

The Traders Journal

If you are going to trade stocks you should have a journal.

If you travel, have a family crisis, etc you should have a telephone escape plan.

To each his own preference. I use a cell phone with the "Smart Money" option to put me in touch with the market and conditions where ever I'm at.
I use a 2x3 plastic magnifier because the cell phone information ia quite small.

I keep a 4x6 Memo book (ruled/60 pages) with daily market transactions on a quarterly basis, a book for each quarter, that's my "Journal". The first pages have phone contacts. The TSP thriftline, my internet broker, and other important information, etc. I have run through the steps to vacate equities and go to cash, or the G-Fund.
I have daily pages divided into comments, TSP funds, Scottrade funds, Gold, Nymex (sweet crude) The major indexes (DOW, Nasd, S&P), US dollar, stops, premium services at TTSPTalk, other funds, and a grand total.

In the evening I convert the Journal data into databases, and a My Portfolio spread sheet. At the end of each quarter I destroy the first few pages with contact information and keep the daily journal pages.

This makes it easy to see pullbacks, tops, bottoms, and trends. You get to record the "atta boys", the "Oh sheets" and "atmospheric phenomenons".

The Premium Services have a great diversification. It's fun to watch Ebb chasing the bunnies. Reverend Shark preaching repent. and Trader Fred busy trying in translating the technical charts in to some sort of readable language........

Have fun, and be careful out there!

**Show-me** · 11-18-2007, 05:38 PM

Buy a Stock Trader's Almanac. Best money I spend on investing stuff each year.

**Spaf** · 11-18-2007, 06:43 PM

Originally Posted by Show-me

Buy a Stock Trader's Almanac. Best money I spend on investing stuff each year.

The Stock Trader's Almanac (STA) is great!
Before I got mine I felt that I didn't know what I was doing.
After I got mine.
Now I know I don't know what I was doing!.......

Glad we got that cleared up!.......

**Spaf** · 11-20-2007, 05:57 AM

Market Talk
Daily Edition
November 19, 2007

Commentary:

Stocks took a tumble, the market seems to be in a bad mood, going from optimism to pessimism. Selling was quite heavy. I guess folks are getting flustrated? Some of the supports were taken out in todays action.

We seem to have three villans: high energy prices, home sales, and the mortgage loan debacle.

Have a good day! And, be careful out there!

**Spaf** · 11-20-2007, 09:47 PM

Market Talk
Daily Edition
November 20, 2007

Commentary:

My dog hates me!

Gee, I tried to explain to him that his supper was in a down draft.

Generally he gets a blend of Purina dog chow, some Fiesta Blend Cheese and a Bar-S frank.
He likes the weenie slightly warm and cut up!

I told him that with propane up so high ($), he may have to eat a cold weenie!..... He has been [Bleep] all day.

Must be the dog days!

Have a good day! And, be careful out there!