Thread: This Month in Stocks: 11/3 - 11/30/07

I highlighted two I fund items in red.

Good luck everyone!

"Market Monitor"-John Murphy, Chief Technical Analyst at Stockcharts.com

Text:
http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/071102c/

Video:
http://www.pbs.org/nbr/wrapper/marketmonitor.html

Bernanke back on the Capitol Hill hot seat
Trade, productivity, import prices top economic numbers to be released.
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Nov 4, 2007


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A week after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, perhaps for the last time in a while, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will head to Capitol Hill to give his views on the economy.

Bernanke's appearance in front of the Joint Economic Committee on Thursday could be the highlight of the coming week's economic news. Other Fed speakers will fan out to talk about derivatives and mortgages, while the economic data calendar will be fairly light.

The Fed is said to be exploring ways of being more open about its operations, and Bernanke's testimony on Thursday will be a good test of that policy. Some economists expect the chairman to say a lot; others are ratcheting down their expectations for any ground-breaking news.


"We think this event will come close to the chairman's semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony in terms of significance," wrote Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank. "The market will be especially keen to hear an explanation" about the decision to cut rates and to signal a pause, wrote economists for Lehman Bros. "However, history suggests they could be disappointed."

Bernanke's testimony will probably hew closely to the statement released after the meeting, which suggested that further rate cuts would come only if the economy worsens more than the Fed expects. Recent statements by Fed officials have had a nuanced "on the one hand this, and on the other hand that" quality to them that defies the kind of simple explanations Bernanke will be asked to give on Capitol Hill. The Fed is watchful, upbeat and realistic about the dangers that may lurk ahead and the Fed's limited ability to influence events.

Bernanke may also be asked about changes to the Fed's communication policies, as described in recent news reports, including a story in The Wall Street Journal. The Fed is looking at releasing an updated economic forecast four times a year, rather than just twice a year. The forecast could look out three years instead of just two, a sort of backhanded way of adopting an unofficial inflation target. If the Fed is going to release its forecasts more often, Bernanke's appearance might be a good time to start that practice.

The data
None of the data scheduled in the coming week are top tier numbers, but there are some interesting tidbits.

Third-quarter productivity numbers will look very good, especially in comparison with the recent past. The longer-term outlook doesn't look as good. On the other hand, the trade gap, which has been narrowing, should grow a bit in September. In this case, the longer-term outlook still looks favorable. The consumer sentiment numbers are expected to be soft again, but not alarmingly so.

The week starts with the Institute for Supply Management index for nonmanufacturing sectors on Monday. This is the poorer cousin to the well-regarded ISM manufacturing index, and usually doesn't get much attention. The index is expected to ease to 54% from 54.8% in September. Readings over 50% show growth.

On Wednesday, the Labor Department reports on third-quarter productivity and unit labor costs. Economists think productivity advanced at an annual rate of 3.3%, the best pace in two years. Unit labor costs, a gauge of inflationary pressures, probably rose just 1%, the lowest in four years, excluding a few quarters distorting by the timing of billion-dollar Wall Street bonuses.

The quarterly productivity numbers are too volatile to be of much use.

Looking at the yearly trend, productivity has slowed. The exceptional productivity gains in the 1990s and early 2002s "are looking more and more likely to be a thing of the past," wrote economists at Wachovia Securities. Productivity has slowed to 1.3% the past few years, implying the economy now has a speed limit of about 2.5% before it fuels inflation.

"This is a much slower speed limit for the economy than had been widely assumed and would require a different monetary and fiscal policy than has been in place," Wachovia said. The trade gap is expected to widen by about $1 billion to $58.5 billion in September, but the trend toward a lower deficit is still in place, economists say. Higher petroleum prices will push up the value of imports, while fewer sales of airplanes will reduce exports, they say. The trade figures will be released on Friday.

Higher oil prices continued into October, which should show up in the import price index. Import prices probably rose by 1%, matching September's gain. The report will be released Friday. "Aside from energy, there is little price pressure coming from the external sector, despite the declining dollar," wrote economists at Citigroup Global Markets. In the past year, import prices excluding fuels are up 2%, while the dollar is down 10.3% against major currencies.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B114C4C66%2D5BDA%2D432B%2D9E43%2 DFF3A3FE56980%7D&siteid=rss

Mark Leibovit, will be Paul Kangas 'Market Monitor' guest on PBS' THE NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT this coming Friday evening, November 9. Please check local time in your area for the broadcast.


TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THE YEAR' for 2006. TIMER DIGEST also ranks Mark as the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10 year period ending in 2006! Currently in the #1 spot for 2007!

http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp

His last show is at the link below.

Good trading to all this week!

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/060526e/

Pain in the EZ and UK. Will we test 1490?

Originally Posted by robo

Mark Leibovit, will be Paul Kangas 'Market Monitor' guest on PBS' THE NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT this coming Friday evening, November 9. Please check local time in your area for the broadcast.


TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THE YEAR' for 2006. TIMER DIGEST also ranks Mark as the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10 year period ending in 2006! Currently in the #1 spot for 2007!

http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp

His last show is at the link below.

Good trading to all this week!

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/060526e/

Looking forward to hear what he has to say.

Originally Posted by Show-me

Pain in the EZ and UK. Will we test 1490?

Hey I finally nailed one. Please no +FV.

ADM beat the street by .09 cents as did Emerson, Lear, Nortel, and Headwater. There is a lot of earning today and no ED so the earnings will rule.

Japan was a major disappointment last night. They alway do that, one direction before you go to bed, then you get up and they close in the opposite direction.

http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/...6?pageNumber=1

Greenspan told a forum in Tokyo that high inventories of unsold homes presented a major risk to the U.S. economy and that he was not sanguine about how quickly the glut could be reduced.

"We still need to accelerate the rate of inventory liquidation, and that will mean bringing housing starts down and sales up. We have a long way to go," said Greenspan, who was answering questions via video link from Washington.

Soros said in a lecture at New York University that the U.S. economy was on the verge of a serious correction and that the Federal Reserve may be underestimating the potential slowdown.

"I think we are definitely in for a slowdown that I think will be a bigger slowdown than (Fed Chairman Ben) Bernanke is seeing," Soros said.
Bill Gross, chief investment officer at the world's No. 1 bond fund PIMCO, told CNBC Television the Fed could not afford to let U.S. housing prices fall sharply and would need to cut rates aggressively, perhaps to 3.5 percent.

JPMorgan thinks the financial services industry is sitting on $60 billion in undisclosed losses. PIMCO's Gross, characterizes the subprime crisis as a "$1 trillion problem".

European Central Bank Policy Meeting, Bank of England Policy Meeting on tap. Thursday will be the release of the BoE and ECB policy.

Anyone have a opinion?

A $39 billion loss for GM will not be good. All the talking head are looking weak. Dollar has tanked and that will cushion the I funders.