Thread: Market Talk

Currently I am holding allocations at 0-0-30-45-25.

Proportionally refiguring the TSP returns on C-S-I funds, for this month to date, calculates out as 31-47-22.

What the market will do on Monday and through the week will be to try and hold the current trend (my opinion). The trend has been and is a steady gentle slope upward. It has gotten buffeted by hurricanes,slips occasionally in the oil, and fizzles when it hears bad reports from major firms such as Coke. However, the uptrend has held, in rather small increments. As Uncle pete would say "The egg is proportional to the chicken and in keeping with the environment".

For now, it is tracking pretty close to the trends of presidential election years as indicated by tsptalk (Tom).

Events may alter my somewhat bullish attitude. But, I keep one finger on the G-fund button, my parachute.

Attached is a chart of the S&P for the month (Aug 16 -to date). What interested me was how tight were the highs and lows, and the somewhat determination of the market to follow the upward, but gradually rising trend, in the current environment.

Kind of like playing poker and holding cards close to your vest (( RE: See Warren Beatty in the film "McCabe & Mrs. Miller " (1971)) love it, as history repeats itself!

You got to defend what it is yours!

Be careful out there! :^

Uh Oh!

The moving average is barely holding, while the Parabolic SAR is saying to go short.

These are initial indications as of 09-20-04, but observed!

My sentiment says to stay long in stocks (this being a presidential year and all). But, my system says to go short (oil, war, hurricanes, company reports, and the Fed). So with the cyclic market and the bearish overtones I will be effecting a TSP fund transfer to G=25% and F=75% for 09-21-04. Bonds don't seem to be reacting to the rise in interest rates??

I'll watch the opening market reports for Tuesday, and if it looks like a rally, I'll cancel my transfer, otherwise I will take my toys and go home for a while.

Attached is a chart from S&P with moving average (20days) and the parabolic SAR.

:?

Tuesday morning market check. AM stocks were up. Crazy market! Cancelling transfers for now. Postponing decision. for another day.

Spaf wrote:

Tuesday morning market check.Â* AM stocks were up.Â* Crazy market!Â* Cancelling transfers for now.Â* Postponing decision. for another day.

Does your investment system have a set cut off price above the 30-day average price of each share that indicates when you should sell? If not, how do you determine when the time is right to lock in your gains by moving from stocks to G fund?

See item 2. at http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tech...abolic_sar.htm

COB yesterday the parabolic exit was indicated, however the moving average (MA)was still slightly upward. It seemed like a exit could be nearing. I loaded a TSP transfer to G and F, but wanted to wait for Tuesdays AM market report to see if the market wouldtrend up or down.Stocks were up, the moving average could hold so I cancelled my transfer.

Nice up day... the I fund really took off. :shock:

Mike...hi!

Today was a good day. Yep, the I fund was up 0.23.

Been using the Parabolic SAR at Yahoo. There are certain rules in using it, and I need some more experience. I think I've got a handle on it now. It threw me a curve yesterday, until I revisited the rules, and saw what was on track for today.

There could be some smooth sailing in the future, and I'm always hopeful that it will be tomorrow. The fact is we are in a bearish market with up and down cycles, a trending market. A good market was the bull 0f 2003. Since Feburary we have had a very unfriendly market, it's a roller coaster! I've settled in on using the parabolic SAR, moving averages, and sentimentto time the market. I've just got to get the rules straight. I get nervous and have to remember to hold the emotion and abide by the rules.

Weare trying to play a market that is bigger then ourselves. When you think the market is going down, it goes up.

I have observed that predictions by the analysist (at various web sites) and most of the analysistincluded a "disclaimer". Really!

It's up to us! Good, bad, or indifferent!

Mike....Have a good day, and be careful out there!

I'm a long-termer and don't have a very big retirement balance (yet), so I don't have to worry about this as much as the rest of you do. However, that won't stop me from keeping my eyes open for a profit opportunity (which is why I'm waiting for the I fund to retreat a bit and give me a better buy-in price). :P

This will be a nice test of the market's upward resolve. Interest rate hike + upbeat fed comments on the economy + continuing highoil prices andearnings warnings. If we can gain in this environment, look out.

Effecting a transfer today. The market is too choppy, up, down, up, down. I agree with Tom the market is uncommitted as to a direction. I thought I was getting sea sick, I'll be out of the boat, and sitting on the beach for a while (G=25%, and F=75%).

Oil is up over a buck and the market is definitely doing its best impression of a pull-back. S&P is down about 14 points. Heh.

My target for the pullback was / is 1110 - 1115. We have already pulled back to the 20-day moving average (1115)so I'm getting ready to get back in if I see 1110 or lower (50-day MA). Also, the 200-day MA is just below 1100, another possible target. This is healthy in my opinion... so far