Thread: This Week in Stocks: 7/28 - 8/3/07

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/wrapper/marke...l;prefchange=1

Okay boys and girls I'm am going to be all over this market like a cheap suit.

Over the next few weeks we will probably get more volatility in the market with significant moves in both directions. But and a big but is one of the stronger Buy Signals to look for in an oversold market is near the end of the month or at the beginning of the month when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (which I follow a lot) closes below 10 and the 5 Day Stochastic is below 10 as well.
For example back in late February and early March two oversold Buy Signals were generated in the SPY's -proxy for the C fund. One Buy Signal was triggered on February 27th when both the RSI and and the 5 Day Stochastic closed below 10. The entry date was at the open on February 28th and the SPY's then gained over $1.50 from the entry price on that day. Meanwhile a second oversold Buy Signal was triggered on March 5th when once again both the RSI and 5 Day Stochastic closed below 10 . The entry date was at the open on March 6th and the SPY's then gained over $2 within a few trading days .

So I am looking for a big pop Monday with some follow thru on Tuesday and maybe a good week overall.

I hope for my sake I am right. I am hoping for a little I fund cross action as well. We will see but I think it is time to put foot to ass.


white

From Liz Ann Sonders - chief invest. at Schwab:

"For those with a short-term focus, here are some historical stats about market action following greater-than-2% down days for stocks, courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group: There have been 11 2% down days since early 2003. The average next-day change on the S&P 500 after a 2% down day has been +0.63%, with the index going up seven days and down four days. The average one-week change was +1.56% and the average one-month change was +2.53%. Most notably, on the prior two 2% down days thus far in 2007, the index went up the following day by an average of +0.61%."

http://schwab.com/public/schwab/rese...ough_week.html

white

Perspective is important:

How bad is bad?

Well, to those of us who were in stocks for the last week…we got “whacked”, didn’t we?

Let’s take a look at the real pain here:

What did we actually loose for the month of July, at least so far?

This Month (&#37

G Fund: +0.42
F Fund: + 0.80
C Fund: -2.86
S Fund: -4.62
I Fund: -3.93

How does this compare to other months in the TSP?

It’s not as bad it you may think. There have been other, bigger drops in TSP History.


You’d only have to go back to May of this year to find another month like this in the “C” fund. That month, the “C” dropped -2.87% for the month, and then bounced right back. In June, 2007, it was positive for the month, granted, only by 0.07%. Then July was another solid gain once again.

May 2007 was bad for the “S” fund too, but this month’s –4.62 already top’s May’s negative return of –4.36. You’d have to reach father back in time to equal this month’s losses in “S”, back to July of 2004, when the “S” fund fell -5.52% in one month.

And you’d have to reach back all the way to January of 2003 to find a worse monthly return on the “I” fund in a single month. Then, the “I” dropped -4.24% in a single month, and that one was followed by an additional –4.19 in February and March of 2003. The good news out of that one was a gain of 9.82 percent just one month later, in April.

Biggest one month declines on record?

How about September of 2002- when the “C” fund lost, in a single month, -10.87 percent?

Or August of 1998, when the “C” was down –14.47 percent in a single month. That remains as the single biggest one month loss in TSP recorded history. The “C” fund only became available to TSP account holders in January of 1988, after the October, 1987 stock market crash.

If tomorrow's econ data is bad, will the markets interpret that as further need for the Fed to cut rates thus acting as a stimulus? Or, will it add to the scare and send the markets down?

Either way anything green the next couple of days looks like a dead cat bounce... we still haven't tested the 200 dma in the s&p yet.

SPY is up .58% currently while the s&p is slightly red... if spy acts a little faster I wonder if this is an indicator on what direction we may close for the day? Anyway, I don't like selling at a loss but smart money was selling the last hour on Friday, and we still haven't seen institutional buying at these so called bargain prices.

We having a buying spree right now. I think it would be better for tomorrow if we were flat to slightly down at the close.

Originally Posted by fedgolfer

SPY is up .58% currently while the s&p is slightly red... if spy acts a little faster I wonder if this is an indicator on what direction we may close for the day? Anyway, I don't like selling at a loss but smart money was selling the last hour on Friday, and we still haven't seen institutional buying at these so called bargain prices.

Hey that is a dart in my pocket!!!

So the question becomes:

Is today's market move a dead cat?

Or a new wave?

... kitty fell a long way, physics almost guarantee him at least doing a double splat. What's the fib retracement on 100 pts in the s&p -- 23.6% off the low is around 1480'ish, right? Maybe kitty will reach some other overhead resistance, but it's still resistance.

Now it becomes really interesting.

I'm not sure what the morning will bring.

Japan started out in postive territory, but then lost steam.

What Europe does will probably have an effect on us tomorrow.

Good night- and let's hope this is a new start of a postive wave......