Market Talk

**Spaf** · 09-11-2004, 05:56 AM

A review of recent market trends.

From the low of August 12th to the closing of September 10th.

Funds: G= .04 F = .18 C= .66 S= .97 andI =.58

Investing proportionally:

G = 20% F = 80 % Bearish (100%) Caution: interest rates are rising!

Bullish (100%) C = 30% S = 45% and I = 25%

Days up: 16, days down: 5

Moving averages (short term) = Bullish for August/Sept. Moving averages (long term) = Bearish for March/ Sept. Current cycles (peak to peak) averaged about 33 days from April/June.

Other factors:

Last week.
Advancers led decliners, with some companies reporting cost cutting.
Oil was lower below $43, as hurricane threat eased (but a war/supply factor exists).
DOW had the lowest Increase up 0.2%, NASD 1.3%, and S&P 0.5%.

Market comments (by others):

Could be upper end, or breakout.

My comments:

Short term: Current allocation Bullish 0-0-35-45-20, with feelings that C-S-I funds seem to be dry due to short termup trends, but since this (also) appears to be a monsoon season (cycles), always bring rain gear (G-fund) along. Long term: Bearish, too many current problems, with cylic moving averages, and overall trend since March has beenaveraging (on a slow slope) downward.

Got to go back and review [tsptalks] chart on upswings during presidential election years. I'm an optimist, needing my shot of good news!

Have a good week!

But, please be careful out there.

09-11-2004, 01:46 PM

If we can get by Tuesday/Wednesday next week (Retail Sales/Business Inventories) we could have a great week. Triple Witching Friday is also a wild card. Volumes are still Augustish (vacation period for laree traders). My plan is to sell into the 21st Fed Hike and buy again if we get a end of month sell off - that is my thesis and I am sticking to it.

In my opinion the S Fund is topping out and will need to retreat to build a base.

MT

**Spaf** · 09-13-2004, 05:10 AM

MT

On June 1st the S fund was at 12.92, as of Sept 10th it was at 12.84

I know that you have indicators based on the SOXX Index (semiconductors) listed at yahoo finance under ^SOXX. Tom (tsptalk) has indicators listed at yahoo finance under the Dow Jones Transportation Avg, ^DTX.

Please see the moving averages i.e., that you can plot using yahoo for i.e., 20 days for ^DTX.

We (I) have no crystal ball. But the economy for the short term looks good. The future is not ours to tell. We need to break out of this years bearish market to help our TSP accounts, do we have a break out? You say Yes. I'll wait to see if S&P crosses through the 1140 level, then I'll say yes.

For now, I am bullish, in the stockat TSP: 0-0-30-45-25.

Have a good week

**Mike** · 09-13-2004, 08:32 AM

This year is not a bearish market. Sideways, yes. Bearish? no.

**tsptalk** · 09-13-2004, 02:09 PM

Mike wrote:

This year is not a bearish market. Sideways, yes. Bearish? no.

I agree. I've called it a consolidation. After the last six months of this consolidation, The S&P 500 isabout 3% from a new multi-year high.

**Spaf** · 09-13-2004, 02:19 PM

Mike/ Tom

Sorry, I don't figure sideways.

The stock market went up last year and into a portion of this year. However, after Feburary it started going through down and up cycles with a S&P high of about 1163 in March, to 1125 where it was last friday. Bearish seemed like word that wouldn't offend anyone, but would reflect the overall trend of downsloping through the cycles.Be it correction, consolidation, constipation, whatever.

**Spaf** · 09-14-2004, 12:22 AM

Monday, September 13th

The markets were doing real good this morning.

About 1 PM I left for a visit to my dentist. When I got home about 4 PM, I looked at the markets again. Wow, what a stall! The NASD seemed to fare ok, but the other ones really fizzled out.

The DJTA looked like it fell off a cliff!

What happened out there ? ?

**tsptalk** · 09-14-2004, 02:52 AM

Spaf wrote:

Monday, September 13th

The markets were doing real good this morning.

About 1 PM I left for a visit to my dentist. When I got home about 4 PM, I looked at the markets again. Wow, what a stall! The NASD seemed to fare ok, but the other ones really fizzled out.

The DJTA looked like it fell off a cliff!

What happened out there ? ?

You are getting a bit carried away. The DJTA dropped $1 or .04%. Another higher high and higher low on the S&P 500. I am concerned that the fall off started after the S&P 500 reached up to 1130. Right about where we will see a pullback if we get one (as I mentioned on 8/20). We could see some selling here but how the market reacts will be the key.

**Spaf** · 09-14-2004, 03:07 AM

Got 3 more dental appointments, don't know if I can take it!!

**tsptalk** · 09-14-2004, 03:10 AM

:l

**Mike** · 09-14-2004, 04:56 AM

Has Ivan been priced into the oil market already? It has already led to a number of shutdowns by oil companies in the Gulf.

**Spaf** · 09-14-2004, 01:16 PM

Mike

Ivan is not a good thing. Winds 155mph and waves 15-20 feet. News today reported Oil prices shot up nearly $1.50 a barrel Monday as oil and natural gas producers evacuated rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Shell Oil said it was evacuating 750 workers from the gulf.

Ouch! I wish Ivan had gone the other way, so do a lot of folks in the gulf! The price of cuban cigars will probably be puffed up. in the short term.

Love this planet ( it's the only one we have)! Hey, have a good day!