Thread: Market Talk / May 6th - 12th

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/070430/043...nmay.html?.v=2


CNNMoney.com
Sell in May and go away may not apply in 2007
Monday April 30, 6:56 am ET
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
With the Dow at a record high and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 at six-year highs, it seems like a good time to cut and run. Wouldn't you agree?
No? Well, according to the old Wall Street adage "Sell in May and go away," one who invests in stocks during the colder months and sits it out during the beach months can do quite nicely, more or less.

http://biz.yahoo.com/brn/070502/2189....v=1&printer=1


Bankrate.com
Rates slide for I-bond and Series EE bond
Wednesday May 2, 6:00 am ET
Laura Bruce

"If you didn't like them before you won't like them any better now."
Dan Pederson, author of "Savings Bonds: When to Hold, When to Fold, and Everything In-Between," summed up the current savings bond scenario quite succinctly upon seeing the new rates issued by the Treasury Department.
The government trimmed both the adjustable and the fixed rates on the inflation-fighting I-bond. Consumers who buy the bond between May 1 and Oct. 31 will get the combined rate of 3.74 percent for the first six months that they own the bond. That combined rate consists of a fixed rate of 1.3 percent that stays with the bond for its 30-year life and an inflation rate of 2.42 percent that's adjusted every May 1 and Nov. 1. (The slight discrepancy is due to the way the composite is calculated.) The previous combined rate of 4.52 percent had an adjustable rate of 3.1 percent and a fixed rate of 1.4 percent. The I-bond adjustment is based on the previous six months of data for the Consumer Price Index.

Briefing.com 08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Early indications are pointing to a higher open for stocks as investors digest another round of healthy Monday-morning M&A activity. The biggest news has come from Alcoa (AA), which offered to acquire rival Alcan (AL) for approximately $33 bln in enterprise value, or a 32% premium.
Per usual, the acquirer (Alcoa) is trading lower on the news but, since AA is a Dow component, blue chip gains are minimal as investors also contend with a market that is looking increasingly overbought since stocks continue to run ahead of fundamentals.

Briefing.com
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.8. The futures market continues to trade above fair value, suggesting the underlying bullish momentum over the last several weeks may carry over into this morning's open. Aside from further evidence that companies remain awash in liquidity, some confidence that inflation measures have eased a bit and recession fears have faded are also providing additional support this morning. In fact, the absence of any notable economic data scheduled today to possibly upset the apple cart is also being viewed as a net positive for investors arguing that stocks have more room to run.

Looks like the majority is trying out the I fund for tomorrow. Should be interesting. I fund has done well since Apr 30th, maybe too well. Risk vs reward....http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

PS I have found Thunder5 moves to be very interesting.

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
May 07, 2007 Closing

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, 5-Tribes, and The Barn Yard.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks [SPX] remain bullish, trading above 13d, above 50d MA.

Con-Yak...................................SPX trading near upper B. band as prices are high. Stochastics registering bullish with %K above %D. However, indicator is above 80 meaning socks are overbought.

Jester-Yak................................There are two things you don't chase, one is a trend, the other is a skunk, the results are generally the same.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1509.48 +3.86.........1494.............1479

Dollar........................................81.6 8 -0.07 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............61.47 -0.46 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Green!

5-Tribes
Tomorrow...................................Tribes holding 4.5 bears and 0.5 a bull.

The Barn Yard
Location.....................................100% G.

I think it's the start of a new bull leg in our ongoing mega trend secular bull market. I'm bullish into perpituity or at least 2010. Did the utility average make a new all-time high today?

06:21 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.8.
06:20 am : FTSE...6563.20...-40.50...-0.6&#37;. DAX...7452.45...-73.24...-1.0%.
06:20 am : Nikkei...17656.84...-12.99...-0.1%. Hang Seng...20706.35...-190.29...-0.9%.

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralConte...px?PageId=3003

The Big PictureUpdated: 08-May-07 08:11 ET
The Big Picture - Taking Stock

Last Update: 16-Sep-03 13:50 ET

The conventional wisdom is that the stock market will drift lower over the next couple of weeks during earnings warnings season, but make no major break either up or down. Just as the conventional wisdom about a flat market in August proved accurate, so might the current call. With that in mind, Briefing.com takes a look at some of the broader issues from a longer-term perspective.

The Need to Analyze

Every day, analysts and journalists scramble to explain every fluctuation in the market. Most of the time, the explanations are correct, but investors also need to step back regularly and avoid the myopia caused by over-analysis. Below are some of our views in bullet point format, categorized by issue.
The Economy

• Ignore the weaker than expected August retail sales number reported Friday. In that survey, auto sales were up just 0.5%. But it is the actual figures from the auto makers that go into GDP, and they were up sharply. That report in no way derails the 6% GDP forecasts for the third quarter.
• Ignore the August decline in non-farm payrolls and the idea that this economic cycle will be different from the rest as a jobless recovery. Employment traditionally lags economic turns by six months. That marks September or October for a likely upturn. Journalists are over anxious and over analyzing the employment data.
• Watch the data on consumer spending. If same-store sales and auto sales stay strong, a full economic upturn is inevitable.
• The bottom line is that real GDP this quarter will be very strong, near a 6% annual growth rate. Not every release has to be a blow-out for this to happen. The fourth quarter will be near 4%.

Inflation

• Ignore the rise in the price of gold as an indicator of higher inflation.
• Watch wages and unit labor costs. Commodity prices will not rise sufficiently enough to create significant inflation pressures, the real pressures come from the labor side of the equation.
• The bottom line is that inflation remains near 1%, with perhaps modest signs that it might inch higher.

TSP.GOV is really slow. Is everyone bailing out or buying?

Originally Posted by clester

TSP.GOV is really slow. Is everyone bailing out or buying?

Yea, I just asked that question in the Account Talk section. I finally gave up and used the toll free number and called in my IFT for today....