Market Talk

**Spaf** · 09-02-2004, 04:15 PM

If I take a look at the S&P500 Gallery chart at stockchart .com. The chart looks like we are in a up oscilation of a declining market. Reading this chart, the percentage price oscillator (PPO), tells me that since Apr there have been 3 times where I should have been in stocks, and two times I should have been out of stocks and in to a safe area i.e. the G or F fund.

Currently my allocation is staying with the stocks at 0-0-35-45-20. If the moving average line swings the other way, thenI'll move to the G and or F funds

I see this chart as a good thing to monitor!

Since TSP lets me effect a next day re-allocation (if in before 12ET) I can get out of a bad time.

The only time I've been in trouble is when I ignored the rules, acted on emotion (which is rule #1) or some silly thing like that.

Wish everone a good day.

**Rod** · 09-02-2004, 08:11 PM

That was a great late rally!:dude:

For those of you invested, CONGRATS!:^

09-03-2004, 11:36 AM

Thank you sir.....:^Every squirrel finds a nut once in awhile...

100% G for today.

**Rod** · 09-03-2004, 12:22 PM

mlk_man wrote:

Thank you sir.....:^Every squirrel finds a nut once in awhile...

100% G for today.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote on my desk calendar for 2 Sep: "Go 100% G- Jobs Report on 3rd."

IF I would have followed my own advice & timing, I would have found that nut too!

Oh well.

09-03-2004, 12:34 PM

I've found that if you write it on your forehead, you see it every morning when you shave...........:P

**Rod** · 09-03-2004, 03:44 PM

mlk_man wrote:

I've found that if you write it on your forehead, you see it every morning when you shave...........:P

At least you won't be losing yesterday's gains!:^

Here today... gone today!:P

**tsptalk** · 09-04-2004, 04:52 AM

Even after the sell off, Friday the S&P 500 made a higher high and higher low over Thursday. We still have a soliduptrend in place.

**Spaf** · 09-04-2004, 06:02 AM

I agree, the trend as I see it indicates the bullish investments. However, we do not have the depth on the averages as we did in 2003. Therefore we have to be very cautious! For long term we should be in secure funds (ie G). If we want to take the risk, we need to stay informed, and have a PLAN!!!.

My plan is to monitor the S&P 500, and if the moving average falls below the price, I move allocations to a safe haven.

Risk....Yes!

Why not, I took risk in Vietnam, Hey I'm game. They can"t eat me!

09-04-2004, 11:40 AM

Spaf,

Intel, Cisco and HP have stated the facts. Raising inventories leading to lowering prices. What this leads to is lay offs andlower pay raises later on. The auto makers, and retailers is blaming their inventories on storms, etc, etc. Raising inventories and cutting prices on products (is great for the consumers) but this is bad for investors. Activity like this is the start of a bear market. People start to buy bonds and get out of stocks. As you seen on Friday bonds have rallied hard. The 10 year treasury (the outlook for bonds) went from 4.16 to 4.3%. This is why the F fund got slammed by .04 cents. Which is huge. I believe the funds started pricing about 18 months ago at 10. So losing .04 on a fund that is now 10.27 after 18 months is a large loss.

Rod/Milk I appreciate you slamming me but I was really sick last this week and the S&P 500 rebalancing on the 31st slipped by mind.

The rumour rally, Thursday, on the "leaked" slamdunk great job report was a suckers rally. A lot of people jumped from the sidelines on Thursday and come Friday when the "slam dunk great report" was released they had their heads handed to them.

Bottom line if it was not for the 31st S&P 500 rebalancing and the leaked job report on Thursday where would of the markets ended for the week. The excuses and sneaky stuff will stop the fourth quarter. When the market has to move on reality I believe it will move down.

Good luck all. You can call me crazy and stupid. But Friday was a day of actual news and not excuses and rumour. Intel people did not come on the TV and say " The storm, labor day holiday later in the month, people waiting later to purchase back to school goods. They said "Inventories are raising even thou we are cutting prices". When you tell the truth your stock goes down. When you have excuses your stock goes up - like Walmart.

MT

09-04-2004, 11:47 AM

Oh yeah, but Intel did do a one two punch on us. Monday morning they came out and said that they shrink the size of chipsleading todoubling their compacity. Historic stuff...they have putmillions of dollars of R&D into this. The stock goes up...then the punch in the gut on Thursday night - that was moved from Thursday midday??? - bad news the morning of the big guys speech - that is weird the report was moved until after the rumour rally, huh? Everything above board there.So those who bought Intel on Monday on the great news and held are down $2.00 per sharefor the week. Everyone that bought in to the rally got the sucker punch also.

I am 100% invested in stocks right now and I do not like it one bit.

MT

09-08-2004, 12:23 PM

Good, cause I'm 100% G..............:P

09-08-2004, 12:25 PM

I am 50/50 I and S fund.

Hoping Greenie will let us into a late afternoon rally.

As you know Sep is the month the mutual funds heave their dogs to clear up their holdings for the end of FY statements.

Will look to be back to G fund if everything goes well on the 21st rally for the .25 rate hike.

Good luck/hunting.

MT