Current market cycles

**Spaf** · 08-28-2004, 10:01 PM

Need your help with a problem.

In April-May and in July-August we had two down cycles in the market. In both of the down cycles there was a period where the market started to go up, then declined, and declined futher. If I follow the moving average what ways can I filter out these sort of false upturns. I figured the cycles were about thirty days apart and applied a 15 day moving average.Was theupturn on Aug 1st + 5days a uncertain signal?

Filters
Filters are used to eliminate uncertain signals. They objectively measure if price has crossed the moving average. Commonly used filters are:

Closing Price - either one, two or three closes must cross the Moving Average;
Typical price, Median price or Weighted close;
The entire bar must cross the MA;
Two or three bars (in succession) must cross the MA; or
Moving Average Direction

Are these the only options. Need your help on the best filters to use with the TSP specifically in monitoring the S&P 500????????????

:?

**tsptalk** · 08-29-2004, 03:23 AM

I know this won't help but one thing to consider is if the market is trending (making consistance higher highs or lower lows) or oscillating (bouncing up and down in a trading range). I believe a moving average is more of a trend indicator where stochastics and overbought/oversold indicators are more oscillating market indicators. We don't really have a strong trend right now. We've been bobbing and weaving up and down since January. In this type of market making a transaction based ona moving average crossover may get you in or out at the wrong time. I should know. I've been pretty good at getting in and out at the wrong time lately

.

Just my opinion.
Tom

**Spaf** · 08-29-2004, 05:17 AM

Thanks Tom

I really don't know what to do to salvage my TSP account. However your web site has been of great benifit to getting me in the right direction. TSPTALK is a good site for members of the TSProgram. Too bad it was not initiated by TSP! My good deed goes to you and people like you, at least you try to help the novices like me that try to salvage our retirement programs.

Sincerely,SPAF

PS: Keep us Informed!, We enjoy your comments and your site!

Regards

**tsptalk** · 08-29-2004, 08:08 PM

Thanks! :^

**Spaf** · 08-30-2004, 05:58 AM

The curent market indicators indicate a buy for the short term. Currently I'm invested at C=35, S=45, I=20. This may change depending on the Monday market indicators of the S&P 500. Will see what happens.

In the mean time I have my G=100% button ready to be pressed!

See you tomorrow

Spaf

**tsptalk** · 08-30-2004, 06:00 PM

Spaf wrote:

The curent market indicators indicate a buy for the short term.

What indicators do you use Spaf?

Thanks,
Tom

**Spaf** · 08-31-2004, 12:03 AM

1. Barchart.com, S&P 500, opinion. and I double check it withTSPMoney.com, fund signals. Really short like 7 or 20 days. Sell and hold were all over the place and fund signals had other lights for like 39 days or longer. I am hoping with you that Monday was the pullback that you talked about, and the market is taking a breather. And stuff will go up.

The market seems to be going through an anxiety crisis over the pipelines in Iraq. I wish things would settle down. The "T" in TSP must stand for turmoil, torment or something similar?

08-31-2004, 11:27 AM

Spaf wrote:

The market seems to be going through an anxiety crisis over the pipelines in Iraq. I wish things would settle down. The "T" in TSP must stand for turmoil, torment or something similar?

Tough love? LOL

**TGA** · 08-31-2004, 12:34 PM

T...for TERMINATED !!!:shock:

**Spaf** · 08-31-2004, 05:02 PM

Terminated is right. Converting assets from stocks to bonds. Doom and gloom news appears to be pulling the market down.

Should not have done that, dang it, broke my own rule.

09-01-2004, 11:50 AM

Just never know what's gonna happen huh? :shock:

09-01-2004, 11:54 AM

The converting from stocks to bonds is driving the yield on the 10 year down and the fixed income net asset value up. I am going to let that trend drag me around for awhile and put 10% into the F fund because I believe the economic data the rest of the week is going to be bad the rest of the week with the big taco August job report. Also going 10% into I fund because the U.S. dollar should get weaker if my guess is correct and the international stock markets will rally.

My timing has been on tilt the last week and I need to focus. This move should make up the nip I took by bailing on 30 Aug instead of 31 Aug.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

MT