Thread: Ebbnflow's Day-to-Day Chart / FEB'07

This is where I'll be updating the ebbtracker cross-checking system for the month of February. Subsequent months will be done in similar fashion. The chart will always occupy the first post and therefore be easier to locate. I'll be posting its progress of tracking each fund (C/S/I) and compare it with the regular TSP funds using percentage gained daily.

As of Jan. 16 thru Feb. 09:

............ebbtracker...tsp prices
C-fund...+2.35%.......+0.64%
S-fund...+3.07%.......+2.46%
I-fund....+0.91%.......+2.88%

System...+3.20% (I-fund +0.91% with cross-checking +2.29%)... Monthly breakdown: started on Jan. 16 (+2.66%) and Feb. 01 to date (+.54%)

The ebbtracker's tracking of the C-fund (+2.35%) and the S-fund (+3.07%) shows that it is well ahead of its regular counterparts, the C-fund (+.64%) and S-fund (+2.46%), respectively. While the ebbtracker's tracking of the I-fund (+0.91%) lags -- I'll chuck it up to the dollar being a tad inscrutable lately -- the cross-checking function of the system more than compensates for it. Here's how:

Code:

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Jan. 24 (WED) : No play on the I-fund, but with two greens (C and S), I was able to play the S-fund (+.95%).
Jan. 25 (THU) : I-fund shows green, but with two stop signs (C and S), I get to sidestep a huge loss (-.98%).
Feb. 06 (TUE) : No play on the I-fund, but with two greens (C and S), I was able to play the S-fund (+.36%). See chart for Feb. at top of page.

Altogether, that's a whopping +2.29% turnaround! In addition, it's nice to see how a sidestep on Jan. 25 (-.98%) equates to a gain. The I-fund (+.91%) with the cross-checking function (+2.29%) combines for a total gain of +3.20%. Sooner or later the ebbtracker will get in sync with the I-fund, then watch out.

On a side note, my ebbnflow account on EWGuy's TSP tracker won't fully reflect the movements of the chart, since I've only followed the new ebbtracker recently around Jan. 27. That's when I first tabulated the results of cross-checking and decided to chart it.

Ebb,
This is a good idea. Are you also keeping the Ebbnflow account talk thread open?

Yep, I agree it's a good idea. Now all the charts for each month won't be scattered all over my account talk thread. Anyways, my account talk thread would still be open for anybody to drop in anytime. Including this one, of course.

Last night I looked at the ebbtracker's C-fund and found out that when used with the cross-checking function (S and I-fund), the result for the ebbtracker's C-fund went up from +2.35 to +2.45 or a +.10% boost. Cross-checking (C and I-fund) with the ebbtracker's S-fund also got boosted from +3.07% to +3.34% or a +.27% increase. Nothing like the +2.29% cross-checking boost I got from the ebbtracker's I-fund, but good enough.

I am new to the board and like all the information everybody shares. I am looking at the ebbtracker's Feb chart and want to make sure I understand. On the chart for today, 2/12, the system suggests the I fund. Should the IFT be made today in anticipation for move tomorrow or should it have been made on Friday for today?

Originally Posted by thamm

I am new to the board and like all the information everybody shares. I am looking at the ebbtracker's Feb chart and want to make sure I understand. On the chart for today, 2/12, the system suggests the I fund. Should the IFT be made today in anticipation for move tomorrow or should it have been made on Friday for today?

thamm -

The way ebb has been posting his moves, a signal for the I fund today means you should have put the IFT in on Friday. Look at it as if the tracker is telling you that the I Fund will be green today, so you want to get in the day prior.

Looks like it might be a little off today.

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

Sooner or later the ebbtracker will get in sync with the I-fund, then watch out.

ebb, do you think the ebbtracker can start lagging because of those days when the U.S. market is closed, but the internationals are open?

Could be, fabijo. I've seen it get in the groove for 8 days straight. I just need one of those streaks to make everything right.

Tonight Nikkei might open 150 points lower at the git-go.

Originally Posted by mlk_man

Looks like it might be a little off today.

I'd say it was more than a little off.

An all green/red day occurred in nine instances since Jan. 16. If two of the three funds get to be green/red as predicted by the ebbtracker, then I'd say it did its job. So far, the ebbtracker has done its job in six of the last ten this happened, just not this time.

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

Tonight Nikkei might open 150 points lower at the git-go.

Nope.

Looks like the Nikkei is now UP tonight.

Who'd a thunk it?