Thread: JOBS REPORT

Getting out of the market next Thursday may be the way to go. Remember my title is markettimer and that is what I try to do is to avoid large one day dips, when possible on market noise.

Jobless claims rose for the first time in four weeks.The August job report is setting up for a worse job report then July. That would turn this rally that started last week down. It is possilbe if my prediction becomes true all the gains we have seen will evaporate on 3 Sep.

Please chime in on this, this job report will way on the Fed raising rate and the election.

Good hunting!

MT

P.S. I am shorting the heck out of Krispy Creme before the earnings report comes out! Should make a couple Gs today on that. Boya!

Boya!!!



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Pre-Market (RTM/ECN): 12.65 2.71 (17.64%)[/b][/align]
My short order was in last night. It is to the point how greedy do I want to be and if the other guy put a stop order in to knock me out. If they did not put a stop order in I am bailing at (20%) which is a gain of $2,000 for me.

It is easier to short then go long in this market. If you miss earnings or make earnings your stock ishammered if you are above earnings your stock goes no where. This fells like a bear market to me kids.

Good hunting!

MT

MarketTimer wrote:

The August job report is setting up for a worse job report then July.

I don't doubt you. I may do the same. Do you have any linksdiscussing this?

Hot Rod,

I have been reading newspapers from different states, a taste:

Job growth stunted
Rocky Mountain News,CO- 7 hours ago
... lost 6,200 positions from January to July, compared with ... same period in 2003, according to Silverstein's data. ... With those jobs, employment still would be lower ...





Missouri leads in job loss
Kansas City Star (subscription),MO- Aug 21, 2004
... of any state — according to data released Friday ... Overall, payroll employment nationwide stood at nearly 131.3 ... From July 2003 to July 2004, payrolls grew in ...


Also over the weekend there was 3000 jobs offered in LA and over 300K people applied.

Aug. 20, 2004

Union and shipping company officials at the Port of Los Angeles held a lottery Thursday to fill 3,000 longshore jobs. More than 300,000 people applied for the dangerous but lucrative jobs. Results of the lottery will be posted on the Web Friday.

I saw a report on Lou Dobbs that a think tank based on state employment reports are guessing the employment numbers will be lower then the July 2004 report of 32K.

Good hunting!

MT

MarketTimer wrote:

Is anyone worried about the job report for August that comes out next Friday?

We have now shrugged off the last bad report. I don't know about getting out. It could be a ho hum. I'll give it more thought.

Tom,

I hate to sound like a broken record but rallies on low volume and down turns on high volume is a bear market. That job report on 3 September could lose the election for Pres Bush. I am also concerned about the yield curves going inverted on us. That happened Jan 00.

Also the trend of lower highs and higher lows is not very bullish either - we keep going down the sloop.

This is a bad trend:

The test will come after Labor Day when the volume should pick up. If "The Boys", as they are called, come back from vacation and sell, I'll be worried. If we continue up, it will bea green light for the rest of us.

More on volume...
I have been saying this rally on low volume is nothing to worry about and that this week, and last, are typically very low volume weeks. I don't think this is an indication of a bear market (as MT suggested) it is just the way August goes.

Today's 72 point drop was on the lowest volume of the year. Does that put us back in the bull market MT?

Well, I "chickened out" Friday, i'm "G" until I can see GOOD! The only thing I see good is Oil and that is or may change really fast after the Iraq thingy. All we need now is Vodka Oil to go bad again! Do you think the convention will affect the market in the + or- ?:h

I don't think the convention will do much either way to the market. If the market is shrugging off pertinent economic data, why on earth would it pay attention to a bunch of political hot air in New York? :P

By the way, I just read an article stating that consumer spending rose by 0.7% in July, which follows a revised 0.2% decline in June (which was about a half point better than the original number that was released for that month). However, evidence is pointing to this spending being fueled at least in part by lots of borrowing at the currently low rates... which serves a gigantic red flag for the future economic health of this country unless hiring and wages pick up some steam.

Mike,

I agree with your post. I live in HI and there are problems looming on the horizon with regards to the housing bubble. Folks that work with me are getting their home insurance premiums and they have gone up on average 28% from last year. My car insurance has gone up 18% and my car has depreciate (per IRS guidance) by 8%. Properly taxes here have increased 12% and car registration has gone up nearly 32%. The issue is a lot of folks have refinanced their home loans and took cash out and did not lock in the lower rates and instead took out ARMs. Now they have spent the cash, lost money in the market and now are faced with higher daily living expenses they did not plan for. Such as the ones above and gas going from 1.82 per gallon to 2.25 per gallon for the cheap stuff. Now when I get gas I see a lot of folks purchasing $1 gallon of gas and not going to the mall anymore. I went to the mall last weekend and about every third store was having a going out of business sell. There was no lines for starbucks and the food court were empty. The back to schools sells where a joke...I went to Walmart and Costco and had the store to myself. The last time I saw this was the late 1999.

Horde cash and plan for the worse.

Good hunting!

MT