Market Talk / Dec. 17 - 23

**Spaf** · 12-17-2006, 05:12 AM

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
December 17, 2006

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Uptrend holding. Maybe it will stay intact. The week after Triple Witching the Dow has been up 11 of the last 14.

Con-Yak...................................Oil was up for the week, but Small caps arn't moving?

Jester-Yak................................Will Santa have a party on Thursday?

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................74.03 up +0.88 for the week.
Stops.......................................Alert: 73.63. Trail: 72.93
MACD hist.................................+0.071, decreasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................positive.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 69.40 [30] decreasing!

$USD........................................84.05 up +0.73 for the week.

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................63.43, up +1.40 for the week...http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G=22, F=25, C=15, S=04, I=34
Leaders Play...............................Bullish: 53%...Bearish 47%.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.69..F=11.17..C=15.78..S=18.94..I =22.07
....(1 week past)........G=11.68..F=11.17..C=15.58..S=18.91..I =21.71
....(2 week past)........G-11.67..F=11.23..C=15.43..S=18.70..I=21.54
....(3 week past)........G=11.66..F=11.15..C=15.47..S=18.78..I =21.31
....(5 week past)........G=11.65..F=11.12..C=15.46..S=18.60..I =21.11
....(12-30-2005).........G=11.16..F=10.67..C=13.55..S=16.27.. I=17.59

Le Chart

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
[annotations added]

**Fivetears** · 12-18-2006, 12:42 AM

Le Pew

**Birchtree** · 12-18-2006, 01:17 AM

Anything that is posted from the new york times has to have a left hook attached to it. Ask Peppy Le Pew.

**Fivetears** · 12-18-2006, 03:47 AM

Now Birch. NYT publisher Arthur Sulzberger apologized.

http://www.dailyfreeman.com/site/pri...ewsid=16672880

**James48843** · 12-18-2006, 07:04 AM

Tom's comment:

Very interesting. And because of this I am going to change the day of the start of the Sentiment Survey from Thursday night to Wednesday night so that on Friday morning you can view the results of the survey and, if you'd like, make an interfund transfer before the Friday deadline to have it effective Monday morning - mimicking this study.

Again, this week's reading is 69% bullish, 14% bearish - 4.93 to 1 ratio.

Uh-oh: Better move out of stocks pronto.

Note: Changing the start of the sentiment survey from Thursday night to Wednesday night changes the reliability of the data. The data from Wednesday night may negate some of those "black thursday" results, that impact on how I usually vote.

It IS an interesting concept. Tom, I just hope you know start publishing how this new theroy would have the accounts- so that we all can see whether it's in 100% G, in the mix, or simply retaining the previous week's location.

I'm game to give it a try.

**airlift** · 12-18-2006, 08:26 AM

James,

Good suggestion.

**Show-me** · 12-18-2006, 11:22 AM

Tom,

Your thinking outside the box. Definitely interesting results! Are we the dumb or smart money? And, now that we are aware of this information will it skew the results?

**weatherweenie** · 12-18-2006, 12:30 PM

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0.

**fabijo** · 12-18-2006, 01:30 PM

Spaf,

Thanks for posting the leaders' allocation average. Look at how little is in the S fund!

**Chaser** · 12-18-2006, 06:00 PM

Originally Posted by Show-me

Tom,

Your thinking outside the box. Definitely interesting results! Are we the dumb or smart money? And, now that we are aware of this information will it skew the results?

It's probably fair and charitable to call us "the not so smart money".

How would Tom's theory work with the AAII sentiment survey used instead of the TSP Bull/Bear survey?

**Spaf** · 12-18-2006, 10:57 PM

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
December 18, 2006 Closing

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks soared!

Con-Yak...................................And profit takers shot them down!

Jester-Yak................................Gads!!

Doodles:
TSP Socks leader........................I-fund
Last 12 months..........................up 28.20%

Socks [EFA] Closed at.................73.92 dn -0.11.
Stops.......................................Alert: 73.63. Trail: 72.93
MACD hist.................................+0.063, decreasing
Trend (P-SAR)............................positive.
Overbought/sold (RSI).................[70] 67.69 [30] increasing

$USD........................................83.99 dn -0.06

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................62.21, dn -1.22
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Allocation Avg.).......G=43, F=43, C=14, S=00, I=00
Leaders Play...............................Bullish: 14%...Bearish 86%.

**Birchtree** · 12-19-2006, 12:32 AM

That is an extreme leaders play bull/bear reading - as a contrarian I'll be buying again tomorrow. The big risk at this point is being out, not being in. There is a reason all the professionals are bullish. And they may just be correct.