I couldn't stay away, darn it

**Desperado** · 12-11-2006, 02:19 AM

Hey Fabijo, great spreadsheet. I modified it a bit (and corrected an error that kept the monkeys in the G fund waaaay too much) so I could use it to fairly compare y'all against. I then compared 100 monkeys to those of you who kept complete returns in 2005 (can't wait for that 2006 data can you?)

As you recall, there were 12 of you.

Highest Return: 14.01%
Lowest Return: 3.94%
Mean Return: 8.50%
Standard Deviation: 2.99%

The 100 Monkeys on average traded approximately once a week (about the same as the TSPers in 2006) and were always 100% in one of the 5 funds for the entire day (no split allocations)

Highest Return: 22.73%
Lowest Return: -8.52%
Mean Return: 8.55%
Standard Deviation: 2.49%

% of TSPers who beat the average monkey: 33%
% of TSPers who scored better than 1 SD above the average monkey: 25% (would expect only 17%)
% of TSPers who scored worse than 1 SD below the average monkey:
17% (would expect 17%)

The most interesting fact was that randomly swapping funds about once a week outperformed a buy and hold strategy of 20% in each fund, which returned 7.34%. The monkeys outperformed that by 1.21% (almost half a standard deviation.) I think I'll start a newsletter, The Monkey's Way To Increasing Your TSP Accounts.

Incidentally, 67% of the TSPers beat the 20% each buy and hold portfolio, but only 33% beat an all-equity buy and hold portfolio.

Overall, not a bad performance at all. On average, the monkeys won, but not by much. Certainly cannot condemn the TSP market timer's efforts based on the 2005 data. I don't think anyone would endorse market-timing based on these results, but they do provide a reason to stay tuned for the 2006 results. (coming soon)

**Propstrike** · 12-11-2006, 02:32 AM

Welcome back desperado. Your thread got a lot of us thinking. I'm sticling with my underperforming poo throwing monkeys!

**James48843** · 12-11-2006, 02:56 AM

Republicans vote to stop January pay raise for itself, then passes continuing resolution until February 15.

http://govexec.com/story_page.cfm?ar...dcn=todaysnews

Couldn't bring itself to pass funding bills again. You know, the ones that are required by law to be in place prior to the start of the fiscal year in October.

Chalk another one up for this Congress.

**fabijo** · 12-11-2006, 03:23 AM

Desperado, nice update on the Monkeys. I guess your way would better represent monkey throwing since a dart can only land 100% onto a fund and not 23.56%. And if they miss all the funds, they just stay put. I like your idea - it is much simpler.

By the way, welcome back. I figured you couldn't stay away long!

**Spaf** · 12-11-2006, 06:03 AM

Desperado,

Your comments do provoke some thought. However, please consider that board members have different time frames to retirement. An aggressive position is good and well for those with a long time to retirement, but not a good position for those near or in retirement. This has to be understood in light of many members not being experienced traders. Some have gained the ability to do quite well, while others are learning, or just viewing.

Spaf

**Show-me** · 12-11-2006, 11:20 AM

Welcome back! Time flies when your hanging around a room full of monkeys.

**vic** · 12-11-2006, 12:12 PM

Enjoyed your post Desperado. SPAF, I agree that some of our members have some time left, but I do not agree with the reired being more conservatve. I retired and do not plan on taking out any money from TSP for 10 years. I will maintain my same mode of investing. That is 100% I or C with an occassional move to G. Just because we can not deposit into our accounts, we still have to maximize our investments. JMHO.

**Desperado** · 12-11-2006, 12:20 PM

Originally Posted by Spaf

Desperado,

Your comments do provoke some thought. However, please consider that board members have different time frames to retirement. An aggressive position is good and well for those with a long time to retirement, but not a good position for those near or in retirement. This has to be understood in light of many members not being experienced traders. Some have gained the ability to do quite well, while others are learning, or just viewing.

Spaf

These two factors are inherently difficult to study. The "Monkey Benchmark" can be adjusted to allow for a more conservative investor, for example by making it twice as likely for the investor to be in the G and F funds than in the others, but deciding which category to put an individual investor in is difficult. Clearly some "venture out" more than others, but that is part of the market timing game. You want to get the gains without the risk, so I think it is reasonably fair to compare everyone to the monkeys, AS LONG AS IT IS DONE IN BOTH A BULL AND A BEAR. The more conservative guy should best the benchmark in a bear, but would probably lag it in a bull. In the long run, it should even out as far as studying you all. If you were more conservative and were looking for a reasonable personal benchmark, I would go for a model where the monkey chose the more conservative funds more often.

The second issue is more difficult to study, i.e. how long is the learning curve. But I have some ideas I'll be using at the end of the year (mostly comparing those who have been posting for a long time versus those who have not.)

**Griffin** · 12-11-2006, 12:29 PM

Originally Posted by Show-me

Welcome back! Time flies when your hanging around a room full of monkeys.

If you consumed enough alcohol, could you achieve the zen like state of Monkey randomness?

I have an old dart board lying around someplace...it may be time to get a beermeister and test the strategy

If nothing else, it should at least be entertaining

**mayday** · 12-11-2006, 08:55 PM

I like Mad Dogs formula especially if your on auto-pilot. Looks better than monkeys throwing darts

**Show-me** · 12-12-2006, 01:26 AM

Originally Posted by Griffin

If you consumed enough alcohol, could you achieve the zen like state of Monkey randomness?

I have an old dart board lying around someplace...it may be time to get a beermeister and test the strategy

If nothing else, it should at least be entertaining

I'm working on it.................the Crown Royal is smoooooth.

Better have another.