Thread: Market Talk / Dec. 3 - 9

The surprise for the rest of this year may be a rising dollar - as the market starts to discount lower economic growth in the Euro zone and the major commodity economies. The dollar decline could mean some undeperformance for European cyclicals. I can't help remember what happened last May when the hedge funds abandoned the global markets. I think trouble is brewing for the second half of 2007 - once everyone again owns the internationals. Ain't that always the way.

There is one thing that a buy and holder doesn't have that all timers with any kind of a sizeable balance have. All timers, at times, feel fear. Too much focus on a single trade causes the fear levels to rise. As this occurs, market timers become hesitant and cautious, trying to avoid mistakes. The risks of choking undrer pressure (not making a trade) build. If one has shallow pockets chances are they won't experience this sense of fear. But the fear of loss can keep a market timer from executing a trade. The desire to be right is in direct oppsition to the ability to be successful. The desire to be right is in direct opposition to the ability to make money. Shallow pocket gamblers don't experience this anxiety because they don't have much on the line.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

The surprise for the rest of this year may be a rising dollar - as the market starts to discount lower economic growth in the Euro zone and the major commodity economies. The dollar decline could mean some undeperformance for European cyclicals. I can't help remember what happened last May when the hedge funds abandoned the global markets. I think trouble is brewing for the second half of 2007 - once everyone again owns the internationals. Ain't that always the way.

There is one thing that a buy and holder doesn't have that all timers with any kind of a sizeable balance have. All timers, at times, feel fear. Too much focus on a single trade causes the fear levels to rise. As this occurs, market timers become hesitant and cautious, trying to avoid mistakes. The risks of choking undrer pressure (not making a trade) build. If one has shallow pockets chances are they won't experience this sense of fear. But the fear of loss can keep a market timer from executing a trade. The desire to be right is in direct oppsition to the ability to be successful. The desire to be right is in direct opposition to the ability to make money. Shallow pocket gamblers don't experience this anxiety because they don't have much on the line.

Count me in on the fear factor. I believe even shallow pocket gamblers don't want to lose their rent money. Your right when it comes to making money you have to be in to win. Being aggressive has its highs and lows. Being cautious also has its advantages. Capital Preservation.

All "Fear Factor familes" are welcome over in the Bear Cave.


Come on over.

In a Bull Market, timers lose by not being in for all the gains. In a bear market, timers win by not being in for all the losses. In a sideways market, it's 50-50. Since the market is on average more likely a bull market than a bear market, market timers generally lose versus buy and hold. That said, it looks like we have a good 10-15 market timers who are doing better than buy-and-hold even in this bull market.

Originally Posted by Wheels

It can't help your high three. High three is actually calculated by months and not years if I am not mistaken.
Nice thought though.

You may be right Wheels, but it makes sense that any/all pay for all 12 months would be counted to your high three for retirement purposes. I WANT MORE!
Most probably it's based on your base salary per month?

Originally Posted by nnuut

You may be right Wheels, but it makes sense that any/all pay for all 12 months would be counted to your high three for retirement purposes. I WANT MORE!
Most probably it's based on your base salary per month?

If I recall the way my HR explained it, it was by the year, but the year was figured as the 12 month period backwards from your retirement date, not any specific calendar year. Retire on 12/30-31 and it would be the calendar year, otherwise, ex: fom 11/06 to 11/05, 11/05 to11/04, etc.
Theoretically, one good time to retire would be just after you got your raise???
Spaf, how was yours done this summer??

Yes, but to clarify; If your raise is Jan 1st and you retire Jun 1st you get six Months at your new salary rate, then back 2 1/2 years - total and Divide by three. Duh, everyone knows that no explanation needed.

The smart money has been long for the last 200 points. Anyone who bought the summer lows or got on along the way is not going to sell this market until January 2nd. It would appear that this current uptrend in stocks has enough staying power to continue well into the spring of 2007 (and continues to reinforce how important it is when both the 9 month and 4 year cycles are moving concurrently in the same direction).

Originally Posted by grandma

Spaf, how was yours done this summer??

Your benefit is based, in part, on the highest average salary during any three year period while you were employed.

This three year period does not always occur in the last 3 years of employment.

Near retirement OSAM (your personnel office) should send you a FERS Benefit Estimate. Enclosed will be an Average Salary Report.

If your last three were the high ones.
They go to your end date, your Date of Retirement.
They backtrack 3 years.
Add up (calculate) the total pay earned.
Then divide by 3.

OPM will verify these dates and amounts; if correct thats the high 3 they use.

Last year we had a link from here for the STA that would help Tom with TSPTalk. Do we still have that link?

Originally Posted by Oldcoin

Last year we had a link from here for the STA that would help Tom with TSPTalk. Do we still have that link?

This?

http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/sta/home.do