Tom, i'm not getting it.....

**azanon** · 10-13-2006, 08:53 PM

Tom, i frequently drop by to read your day-to-day column and see you sitting in the G fund through this bull market. To be wrong about the market is always understandable, but what i'm not getting is your apparent narrow logic that you use to analize the market.

You practically exclusively rely on the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, using more Bears as a good thing, with basically the theory that the market is exactly the opposite shape of what general perception is. In other words, you're a classic contrarian, but you're only analyzing it with this one viewpoint.

Ok, i'll be the first to confess there was a time I want to believed so badly another easy skeme for beating the market which was presented by Charles Givens; his "Money Movement Strategy" which uses simply the current interest and the direction of the interest rate to decide on whether you should be in stocks, bonds, or cash. In theory, his logic is actually pretty sound. And like any good scheme, it works wonders when back tested with the past market. And his technique is so simple (roughly as simple as yours), i wanted to believe really bad that I had found the holy grail to market timing and that I was going to make a 15-20% return guaranteed from then on like he promised. But then there's reality!

Tom, you are clearly a smart guy as evidenced simply by your writing ability, but I think you need to accept that the market simply cannot be understood that easily. Would you not admit that all throughout the mid and late 90s that the bulls probably FAR overshawoed the bears for month after month, year after year. And despite that, the market just kept going up for the entirity of the 90s. A DECADE! What if that same thing could be happening now? Oh sure, i'm sure you have some explanation why now might be different, and that explanation would only appear to be right if the 90s didn't repeat itself. Random luck does not equal correct analysis.

Taylor Dent thinks that the market is going to do just that, go through the roof until some crash no earlier than 2008. Are you so sure he's wrong and you're right? Or is it more likely that neither one of you really knows what the heck is going to happen.

In short, i just dont get it. I can deal with you choosing to lose money for yourself, but please rethink doing it on behalf of the other people here too, because many of them are probably following your guidance, and unware that most experts recommend holding a diversified portfolio with rebalancing despite current market conditions.

IMO, the smart investors invest not to lose, per William J. Bernstein, and instead focus most of their energy on keeping more of what they earn. Studies have shown that the primary determing factor to accumulating wealth is focusing on accumulation and savings, not obsessing over that extra 1-2% return, and actually losing 1-2% in that endeavor.

I applaud your initial advise to get the masses out of the G-Fund long term. But I personally feel you're offsetting the good done by that, by advocating market timing.

Azanon

**azanon** · 10-13-2006, 08:59 PM

BTW- using Given's strategy, he'd be in stocks right now and would have been since at least 2003. Granted he would have been in stocks too for much of 2000-2002 as well. But, alas, he's dead and has been for some time, so i'll let him rest in peace.

**Griffin** · 10-13-2006, 09:08 PM

Uh oh,

Folks are getting mad at Tom......now I know this bull run ain't going to make it to election day

thanks a lot Azanon, I was making truck loads of money

**FUTURESTRADER** · 10-13-2006, 09:09 PM

as Wheels so succinctly put it. "What.....ever"

**azanon** · 10-13-2006, 09:37 PM

Folks are getting mad at Tom......

I'm not mad because I know better than to try to follow that advise. Concern would be the more operative word.

**CountryBoy** · 10-13-2006, 09:39 PM

Yeah, "What.....ever".

Not to mention the numerous caveats thoughout the site. Can we say "reading comprehension"? What ever happened to personal responsibility

? Oh, that must be your gun poking me in my back.

I enjoy your POV’s with my morning cup of Joe in the morning and then like a big boy, I make my decisions about my OWN money.

Great site and keep up the good work guys. Ya'll saved/made me more money than I would've before I found this site.

CB

**azanon** · 10-13-2006, 09:41 PM

Originally Posted by CountryBoy

I enjoy your POV’s with my morning cup of Joe in the morning and then like a big boy, I make my decisions about my OWN money.

So your theory is that leaders have no accountability for the people they mislead. That's an.......... interesting way of looking at things.

**CountryBoy** · 10-13-2006, 09:51 PM

Leaders? I thought this was a place, that Tom and others provided, where us Fed employees could get together and share ideas on how to best to maximize our TSP funds. And then make our own call.

We just have a differentt outlook about the value and mission of this site. You want to be lead, I just want all the POV's and information available, so that I can make some kind of educated decision on what moves, if any to make, on my own.

I've seemed to have missed the tsp.gov site offering any. Different strokes for different folks.

Have a good one,

CB

**weatherweenie** · 10-13-2006, 09:51 PM

This will be a one time post, because personally I think any additional posting just encourages this type of person.

The advice that Tom gives out is his opinion on what is going to happen in the market. Whether anybody chooses to follow him, that's their own business.

**James48843** · 10-13-2006, 09:59 PM

If you think Tom is your leader, then I suggest you go back and read what Tom wrote on his intro page.

He very clearly tells everyone that the purpose of this site is HELP OTHERS MAKE THEIR OWN EDUCATED DECISIONS:

"This site isn't meant to primarily tell you what to do. The goal is to provide you with the information you need to help you make your own decisions. I will let you know what I am doing, why I am doing it, and when I'm doing it. I also make some buy and hold allocation recommendations based on risk tolerance, but helping you understand the market is the key.

And TSPTALK does a WONDERFUL job of doing just that.
Yes, Tom tells you what he thinks, and why. It's been very insightful for me. And a lot of others pipe up too. THAT is just as insightful, or more so.

In the end, hey, it's YOUR money. Learn, and then risk the amount that YOU are comfortable placing at risk.

The bottom line?

Ten years ago 70% plus of the money in TSP accounts was sitting in G fund.

Nowdays, a LOT more people are watching and working to help themselves. If "G" fund is your risk tolerance, then by all means stay in "G". If you are more risk comfortable, by all means have at it.

That's what TSPTALK is here for- to LEARN, and make your OWN decisions.

**James48843** · 10-13-2006, 10:01 PM

Originally Posted by Griffin

Uh oh,

Folks are getting mad at Tom......now I know this bull run ain't going to make it to election day

Yep. Right on the money. That's a "smart money" signal that things could turn south at any moment.

**Birchtree** · 10-13-2006, 10:12 PM

Azanon,

The reality is you don't know that Tom is not correct in his strategy. What happens if Monday the dreaded 4 year cycle starts to apply pressure and the market takes a 900 point haircut over a two week time frame. I distinctly remember the fear from past October massacres - it's like dropping silver down a well and wondering if there is a bottom. This bull is going to last a long time and there will be ample opportunity to make up for any past mistakes. The markets are dynamic and some investors will do better than others and some will be below trend. A bull market can be rather redeeming.

Dennis - permabull#1