The Weather Thread

**The_Technician** · 08-16-2006, 01:46 AM

Figured this would be a good un....we can all talk about the weather and debate hurricane paths...

A link to the noaa guys: > National Hurricane Center

**The_Technician** · 08-16-2006, 01:48 AM

Seen another system starting 1000 mi. east south east of where Chris started (about 1500 mi. off Bahamas..). Can't say if it will form up, too early.....Maybe Dave will fill us in....

Dave M · 08-16-2006, 12:32 PM

I have been keeping my eyes on my islands the last few days as we have had active weather down here. Yesterday I extended my horizon forward one week, and as we are in for "Atlantic weather" that is where I looked. From my afternoon discussion...

.FORECASTS...
IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS WE SHOULD SEE THE ATLANTIC HIGH NOSING IN FROM
THE EAST...THROUGH THE DOOR OPENED BY THE DEPARTURE OF THE BAHAMAS LOW. THE GOES-SOUNDER ESTIMATED MOISTURE VALUES ABOUT A THIRD LESS THAN AT PRESENT OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...EASILY DISCERNED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AS A CLEAR ZONE NORTH OF THE ANTILLES. THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERLIES THAT WILL NATURALLY RESULT...WILL DEPEND PARTLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT WE CONSULTED GUIDANCE...WHICH ALIGNED THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE WE LOOK FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS...COMFORTABLE EAST BREEZES...AND MODEST RAIN CHANCES...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

...so it looks quiet for now. The recent behaviour of the Huricane Center has lead us to become jaded. They seem to have gotten orders to play up in their discussions every little cloud cluster or swirl.

Dave

**The_Technician** · 08-16-2006, 01:01 PM

I heard that NOAA was laying off weather forecasters for lack of work....

Suppose when the 'canes are down, so is the oil monies that pay for the weather business....

**nnuut** · 08-16-2006, 01:05 PM

Originally Posted by Dave M

I have been keeping my eyes on my islands the last few days as we have had active weather down here. Yesterday I extended my horizon forward one week, and as we are in for "Atlantic weather" that is where I looked. From my afternoon discussion...

.FORECASTS...
IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS WE SHOULD SEE THE ATLANTIC HIGH NOSING IN FROM
THE EAST...THROUGH THE DOOR OPENED BY THE DEPARTURE OF THE BAHAMAS LOW. THE GOES-SOUNDER ESTIMATED MOISTURE VALUES ABOUT A THIRD LESS THAN AT PRESENT OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...EASILY DISCERNED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AS A CLEAR ZONE NORTH OF THE ANTILLES. THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERLIES THAT WILL NATURALLY RESULT...WILL DEPEND PARTLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT WE CONSULTED GUIDANCE...WHICH ALIGNED THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE WE LOOK FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS...COMFORTABLE EAST BREEZES...AND MODEST RAIN CHANCES...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

...so it looks quiet for now. The recent behaviour of the Huricane Center has lead us to become jaded. They seem to have gotten orders to play up in their discussions every little cloud cluster or swirl.

Dave

Now yer talkin'!!! Much better than my guesses! GO DAVE!

**The_Technician** · 08-17-2006, 01:19 AM

If you look now you have an opportunity to see one start in the gulf.....it doesn't necessarily mean it will go on and fully develop, but the motions are initiating at the moment.....

What can I say....I looking for one sooner or later....conditions are ripe.....especially in the Gulf.....just looking anyday for one.....

Gee its hot and muggy around here....

Dave M · 08-17-2006, 03:29 AM

Since I am off duty for a couple of days, I have been swilling Stella and enjoying the town. Not only do I have the best job in Key West, I have the best job in in the weather service. *hic!*

I do recall that on Tuesday when we charted the water temps, there was a warm pocket in the northeast Gulf at 31C, along the panhandle. That is plenty warm. I wonder how deep it goes.

Dave

**Fivetears** · 08-17-2006, 05:03 PM

If we don't get a couple good spinners in the gulf here pretty soon...
big oil is going to run out of excuses to score another 200% profit this year.

**FundSurfer** · 08-17-2006, 05:17 PM

Originally Posted by FundSurfer

Gulf surface temps - NOAA chart

Thought I'd repost the link to the gulf surface temps in this thread.

**Oldcoin** · 08-17-2006, 05:32 PM

Whoa, reminds me of something I saw at a Hendrix concert in the 60’s!

**grasshopper** · 08-17-2006, 05:46 PM

We are going on a 7 day vacation to the Cancun area in the beginning of Sept. Had this thing planned for last November and look what happened... At least wait for me to get home for all the storms to start.