Thread: Market Talk / August 6 - 12

Not a "Recession".


It's going to be a downright DEPRESSION.

I 'm depressed already.

Inverted yield curve, rising interest rates, slowing housing market, falling Dow transportation index, anemic job growth for several months in a row... I'd say it's all adding up.

A recession would certainly send oil prices lower, but that's still months away (GDP growth should remain above 2% the rest of this year - it's next year that concerns me).

In the meantime, we have this: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20060807/D8JBAG9G0.html

8% of US domestic oil production is shut down in Alaska. We have ample crude supply for the time being, but that won't matter to the traders. Expect $80 oil before month's end. If another hurricane disrupts gulf production, expect $90 oil. Iran's deadline is August 31st as well... and apparently, they have been trying to obtain uranium 238 from africa (shipments have been intercepted over the past year and this is going to be reported to the security council).

What does it all mean? I'd say $3.50 gasoline... $4 if we get a disruptive hurricane. If the Iranians shut down their oil shipments / block the Persian Gulf, then we're looking at $5 gas. I know our economy is more efficient these days, but I don't think we can handle this type of price shock.

Edit: show-me, I have a little time here and there... someone's entered my life, and it's hard to come on here and talk to all of you about investing, current events, and the economy as much as I used to.

Originally Posted by James48843

Not a "Recession".


It's going to be a downright DEPRESSION.

I 'm depressed already.

Fund prices will be higher in the 4th quarter than than they were in May.

Originally Posted by Spaf

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
August 6, 2006

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak..................................I think there's a good chance the Fed will pause!

Con-Yak.................................Na, The Cartel creature is still hungry!

Jester-Yak..............................Won't know till Tuesday! And Jay has Duke locked in his dog house!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,279.36, up +0.81 for the week. [Holding at pivot point.]
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........-0.002, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+5.452, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........88.56, high.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70]....57.51....[30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................74.76, up +1.52, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow / Yellow [Doodles +5-0 / Lube > 70].

Tin Box:
Position...................................100% socks.
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert: 1267. Trail: 1254.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.49..F=10.79..C=14.04..S=16.74..I =19.70
....(1 week past)........G=11.47..F=10.74..C=14.02..S=16.69..I =19.59
....(2 week past)........G=11.46..F=10.68..C=13.60..S=16.11..I =18.76
....(3 week past)........G=11.45..F=10.65..C=13.55..S=16.38..I =18.59
....(4 week past)........G=11.44..F=10.61..C=13.87..S=16.96..I =19.36

Looks like that slow STO Average is going to cross over the marker, but we need another peak, right? Might get that tomorrow and down she goes?

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
August 7, 2006 Closing

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Bulls out! Bears out! Pigs in! Plenty of muck!

Con-Yak..................................Lube up on BP booboo.

Jester-Yak...............................Don't forget the Cartel creature!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1275.77, dn -3.59.
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.002, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+5.484, flat.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........81.14, high.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 55.46 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................76.98, up +2.22
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow / Red [doodles +2-3 / Lube > 75]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1267. Trail: 1254.

Originally Posted by nnuut

Looks like that slow STO Average is going to cross over the marker, but we need another peak, right? Might get that tomorrow and down she goes?

Remember on the Slow Stochastic it is the momentum we're watching!

RE: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tech...stochastic.htm

Just giving it a stab, really don't understand everything I need to, analise the trend, but looked like we could be headed for a (momentum) down turn based what I have learned? I'm not afraid to make a fool out of myself, I'm just nnuuts. Who said I was an annalist anyway?

Musta been thinking about the Fast STO? Yeah, that's it (just kidding). Sorry just thinking out loud. Don't worry I'll get it! Thanks for the info that site helps alot.

Geomagnetic Storms

The Federal Reserve has published an interesting report entitled "Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market" that finds that geomagnetic activity (which is due to the effect of solar storms on earth's magnetic field) has a very strong correlation to selloffs in the stock market. They found that high levels of geomagnetic activity precede large selloffs in the stock market.

http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html

http://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms

http://sec.noaa.gov/

Small storm no problem....Not that I follow this, but it is a cool site... Nice images! Looked for buy and sell signals, none found.. Nice charts for Spaf to look over...

A new chart!

US Market Futures at posted time:
S&P 500 +2.60 1284.80 8/8 0:10am
NASDAQ +3.00 1505.50 8/7 11:44pm
Dow Jones +12.00 11279.00 8/8 0:10am