Market Talk / July 30 - Aug 5

**Spaf** · 07-30-2006, 05:17 AM

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
July 30, 2006

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.................................The bull shute should be at about 1280 [$SPX - pivot point]. Momentum increasing. Vestors yak about good week if earnings continue and hopes that Fed will pause rate increases.

Con-Yak.................................The bear den should be at about 1260 [$SPX]. Vestors still somewhat nervous over factors of M.E., rates, oil, off-season, and spendings.

Jester-Yak..............................Maybe Lube has peaked? Syria critical to any peace plans!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,278.55, up +38.26 for the week.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........-0.101, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+1.755, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........86.09, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70]....58.07....[30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................73.24, dn -1.19, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow / Yellow [Doodles +4-1 / Lube > 70].

Tin Box:
Position..................................100% socks.
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: 1267. Trail: 1254.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.47..F=10.74..C=14.02..S=16.69..I =19.59
....(1 week past)........G=11.46..F=10.68..C=13.60..S=16.11..I =18.76
....(2 week past)........G=11.45..F=10.65..C=13.55..S=16.38..I =18.59
....(3 week past)........G=11.44..F=10.61..C=13.87..S=16.96..I =19.36
....(4 week past)........G=11.43..F=10.60..C=13.91..S=17.21..I =19.39

**robo** · 07-30-2006, 07:40 PM

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Bear Market Rally, or Something More Significant?
The rally last week which followed our scheduled cycle low impressed quite a few folks. Unfortunately, bear market rallies tend to do that. It's why bear markets fall on a "Slope of Hope" (the obverse of bull markets, which rise on a "Wall of Worry"). It's important to distinguish between a true bull market rise and a bear market rally because the latter often leads to tears.

Kickoff rallies in bull markets exhibit some signs which distinguish them from bear market rallies. Unfortunately, last week's spirited rise exhibited few of those signs. Thus, while the market may have put in its low of the year already as we anticipated would likely be the case, we're not out of the woods just yet. When will it be time to buy for investment purposes?

**Birchtree** · 07-30-2006, 10:09 PM

I've been buying for the last two weeks - plan to do more when I find some money. Have 44 names lined up on my buy list - the wall flowers are plentiful this summer. This bullmeister is ready.

**fabijo** · 07-30-2006, 10:53 PM

Originally Posted by Birchtree

I've been buying for the last two weeks - plan to do more when I find some money. Have 44 names lined up on my buy list - the wall flowers are plentiful this summer. This bullmeister is ready.

Do you ever sell?

**Wheels** · 07-31-2006, 12:17 AM

I thought maybe the escalated violence in Lebanon would cause a big sell-off in the morning, but now that Israel has said they will not use air power for 48 hours, that will probably give the markets a 1 or 2 day reprieve. If so, I will likely use any strength to sell.

Dave
<><

**robo** · 07-31-2006, 12:46 AM

Sunday, July 30, 2006
Whatever Happened to the Last Hour of Trading?

What does it mean when traders are buying or selling stocks in the last hour of the day? Some have suggested that this might be a "smart money" indicator, in that institutions that want to position themselves for anticipated moves will do so prior to the close to take advantage of overseas strength or weakness. Another way to view trading in the last hour is as a sentiment gauge. Heavy buying (selling) in the last hour means that bulls (bears) are so convinced of their positions that they're not willing to wait until the next day's open to place their orders.

Yet another view is that buying/selling in the last hour reflects risk-taking (willingness to assume overnight risk), while avoidance of buying/selling reflects risk aversion.

Whatever the explanation, we can see that a cumulative index of price changes in the Dow over the last hour of trading has failed to keep up with the Dow's price advance since the end of 2004. Early in the bull market, traders were buying during the last hour. Since 2005, this has not been the case. Even on Friday and over the past two weeks, when we had a nice pop in the Dow, there was no push to buy in the last hour.

Is smart money avoiding the market? Is sentiment bearish? Are traders behaving in a risk-averse fashion? Perhaps all the above. What we can see for certain is that willingness to step up and buy in the last hour has essentially vanished from this market.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/

posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. @ 8:58 AM

**Show-me** · 07-31-2006, 02:30 AM

Originally Posted by Wheels

I thought maybe the escalated violence in Lebanon would cause a big sell-off in the morning, but now that Israel has said they will not use air power for 48 hours, that will probably give the markets a 1 or 2 day reprieve. If so, I will likely use any strength to sell.

Dave
<><

Was that before of after this strike?

UN Security Council shocked by Israeli air strike
Updated Sun. Jul. 30 2006 9:50 PM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

The UN Security Council said it was shocked by Israel's attack on the southern Lebanese village of Qana, while UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan repeated calls for a ceasefire.

The Sunday morning air strike left at least 56 people dead, most of them women and children.

**Fivetears** · 07-31-2006, 02:35 AM

The FOX News Alert I got was "SENT" dated Sun 7/30/2006 4:35 PM.

**Fivetears** · 07-31-2006, 02:36 AM

Doesn't mention Time Zone.

**Wheels** · 07-31-2006, 02:36 AM

Originally Posted by Show-me

[B]Was that before of after this strike?

After. Israel agreed to a 48 hour halt to air strikes so that humanitarian aid could get in and help.

Dave
<><

**Show-me** · 07-31-2006, 02:41 AM

Irregardless, I do not think Israel is going to take any orders/suggestions from the UN or anyone else for that matter. Can't say I blame them. They have been turning the other cheek for a very long time.