Market Talk / April 2 - 8

**Spaf** · 04-02-2006, 06:13 AM

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
April 2, 2006

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Last week the S&P couldn't break the resistance barrier of 1310, try as it might, five times. We had broken out of the trading range of 1297, but couldn't get the advances we needed. Since late December we have had four highs and four lows, resulting in an advancing but very choppy market. Short term trading caution is now in order since we appear to be coming down from another high.
Other Yak...............................Why is it so choppy? Is it the rising interest rates? Higher bond yields? Or, worry over / high oil prices?
Jester Yak..............................The 1st quarter ended good, the S&P was up 3.7%, and the 50dMA is still rising.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,294.83, dn -8.12, for the week.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........-0.010, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+4.557, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........62.21, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 51.09 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................66.63, up +2.37, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Mix of Yellow and Red.

Tin Box:
Position...................................75G, 05F, 10C, 05S, and 05I
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert: NA, Trail: 1,294

TSP (week ending)......G=11.28..F=10.61..C=14.12..S=17.85..I =19.24
....(1 week past)........G=11.27..F=10.68..C=14.20..S=17.60..I =19.12
....(2 week past)........G=11.26..F=10.68..C=14.25..S=17.48..I =19.15
....(3 week past)........G=11.25..F=10.62..C=13.96..S=17.07..I =18.50
....(4 week past)........G=11.24..F=10.65..C=14.02..S=17.36..I =18.56

**Wheels** · 04-03-2006, 02:31 AM

Not what I wanted to see. As I go to bed Sunday night, Japan and Australia are off to the races.

Dave
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**tsptalk** · 04-03-2006, 02:56 AM

Futures up big as well, but I don't really see any riveting news-wise.

**LA_Guy** · 04-03-2006, 03:34 AM

SINGAPORE – Gold matched a 25-year high above $588 an ounce and platinum hit another record peak of $1,093 on Friday, as fund managers poured money into precious metals in the hope of reaping better returns.

http://www.biz-day.com/read/industri...year_highs.htm

**Spaf** · 04-03-2006, 03:36 AM

C is turning into a sell. F could have some buy potential. I is still a hold, and so is S. Stocks can follow the US market, so caution is needed.

**TiCKed** · 04-03-2006, 04:02 AM

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Futures up big as well, but I don't really see anything riveting news-wise.

I know what's going on.....

On Saturday, I submitted an order to deposit another $1000 into my Roth IRA. I'm doomed to NEVER buy low.

**Spaf** · 04-03-2006, 04:20 AM

TiCKed,
Don't you have a money market account or some sort of cash account that you clould let it rest in till the market has a low ebb?.....

......Spaf

**TiCKed** · 04-03-2006, 04:39 AM

Originally Posted by Spaf

TiCKed,
Don't you have a money market account or some sort of cash account that you clould let it rest in till the market has a low ebb?.....

......Spaf

Define "Low".

Guess I'm more bullish than I let on.....

And my IRA mutual fund is a balanced fund. 35% Bonds, so it's at a relative low.

**Spaf** · 04-03-2006, 05:21 AM

TiCKed,...............

.............Spaf

**Rod** · 04-03-2006, 06:52 AM

Originally Posted by Wheels

Not what I wanted to see. As I go to bed Sunday night, Japan and Australia are off to the races.

Dave
<><

It'll probably reverse come Tuesday.

**Birchtree** · 04-03-2006, 09:42 AM

Could this be a 40 point week on the SPX - similar to the first week 1/06?

I wouldn't sell the C fund - S fund is certainly overextended but I wouldn't sell it either at this time.

**JOVARN** · 04-03-2006, 11:54 AM

The key business survey was released late on Friday and that's whats driving the Asian Market. I believe this may be a short lived boost with a better opportunity to buy back in at a later date. ONE CAN ONLY HOPE. Oil is back over $67/B The council last week gave Iran 30 days to halt enrichment, but Tehran rejected the call and analysts remain concerned that it could resort to using oil for leverage. Its a crap shoot, timers will just have to get very lucky over the next few weeks if they want to make money.
AP
Nearly All Asian Markets Rise
Monday April 3, 7:12 am ET
Nearly All Asian Markets Rise, With Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore Hitting Multiyear Highs
HONG KONG (AP) -- Stock markets across nearly all of Asia rose Monday, with shares in Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore hitting multiyear highs, and Chinese stocks climbing to a 16-month high.
Markets in Australia and New Zealand, meanwhile, reached fresh records

Japanese stocks surged to their highest level in more than 5 1/2 years, boosted by upbeat results in a key business survey. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 273.65 points, or 1.60 percent, to 17,333.31 points -- its highest close since July 12, 2000.

Advancers included machinery maker Fanuc Ltd., which rose 3.09 percent. Real estate developer Mitsui Fudosan Co. rose 1.48 percent, while Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. picked up 1.13 percent.

In currency trading, the U.S. dollar bought 118.53 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange market late Monday, up 0.82 yen from late Friday in New York. The euro slipped to US$1.2048 from US$1.2115

It sounds really great, looks like a perfect opportunity for profit taking.