Thread: Market Talk / Mar 5 -11, 2006

From Birchy's post last week:

"That darn A/D line is not diverting, and it's very rare the price will top without A/D divergence."

the advancers begin to lag and the decliners begin to expand

http://www.safehaven.com/article-4716.htm

The NYAD line went to new all-time highs last week - if one looks at a graph of the NYSE cumulative composite advance/decline line for 2005/2006, there is no distributional top forming yet, the trend line indicates to me that breadth is leading price. The DJIA is too narrow a grouping. The A/D line is not diverting, and it's very rare that price will top without A/D divergence. Bottoms above bottoms continue to control the pattern of NYSE breadth MCO and the NYSE MCSUM continues to chop around - no real damage noted last week. Even the NASDAQ is showing some spunk - everything is turning out bullish - the DJIA will most likely penetrate its previous recovery high this week - then on to the new all-time high above 11,722.98 placed on Jan 14, 2000. This has been a correction for the month of February and not the start of money flow leaving the market on a trending basis. Keep your bear paws pressing on the Dow Transports and watch the explosion upward - there is alot under the radar that is positive.

Dennis - permabull #1 by default

There is no guarantee that there will be a recession in 2006, but if 10Y-3M-YD reaches -0.25% over the next two months the odds will be overwhelming.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-4720.htm

Lehman Brothers Inc. economists raised their forecast for how high the Federal Reserve will increase its interest-rate target this year to 5.5 percent, according to a research note today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...lZOJA&refer=us

Wizard,
Do we hide in the G fund like the choir boys? I would be more concerned about the possible damage resulting from the nesting of the 4-year cycle low. Now if you want to make me nervous that would do it. Presently with our current market character this is not what we would be seeing moving into the nesting of the 4 year cycle bottom. The 4-year cycle bottom will more than likely take place at higher price levels than where we are at the current time. With recent new price pattern breakouts all over the place my gut feeling is the 4-year cycle came and went at the end of October 05. But I'll have to hedge that one. I even think the AMEX composite placed a new all-time high Friday due to energy weight. This is fun - bring on the bear paws. They just refuse to recognize the prevailing trend - and hell even I could be wrong and vulnerable to a blind side - but I'm in to win and will keep my money working. I realize that at 40,000 shares of the G fund at a penny a pop is well you know, ok money. But I'm here to get more silver and not copper - now that silver just put in a ten year high.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

Wizard,
Do we hide in the G fund like the choir boys?

I know what that candle meant in March 2000 and I know what it means March 2006. Do you?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spx

And I am the one with the bad rep.

Wizard,

I'm hear to learn so please take some time and educate me in the intricacy of the candles - it would be appreciated. Thanks for your time in advance.

Dennis

Originally Posted by Birchtree

Wizard,

I'm hear to learn so please take some time and educate me in the intricacy of the candles - it would be appreciated. Thanks for your time in advance.

Dennis

I rather beat my head against a wall. It would be better use of my time.

Wiz,

Don't worry about it...

Wizard,

We seem to be getting a little ...... today. I wouldn't want you to bruise your head. Why don't you post my picture like you did last year - so others will see who I am? And I'll start arranging you another golden praise party. This could be a real social event - but you sold both your houses, right? Is it really true you've been predicting disaster since the start of 2004 - you are bound to hit one sooner or later. Keep the faith with the G fund. Take care.

Dennis

Candles anyone!

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tech...ndlesticks.htm