TSPTALK Tally Leaders Bear or Bull Indicator

**FundSurfer** · 03-04-2006, 03:35 AM

I averaged the current allocations of 12 members who either were a leader for annual return for 2005 or the Last 12 months. The last 12 month picks up a couple like Cowboy and Tekno who just missed January last year.

The dozen I chose: Dakota (included even though he's not firing on all thrusters right now), Show-me, Neirbod, Pyriel, Skip, Systemtrader, Rod, TSPgo, Cowboy, Tekno, Rokid, and Milk_man.

The average allocation of those 12 members:

42.5% G, 10.4% F, 8.8% C, 9.7% S, and 28.7% I

I'd call anything over 50% combination G + F as bearish.

I thought it was interesting. (If I toss out Dakota since he isn't thinking about the market right now and Rokid who doesn't seem to move very much, and call this the active bunch -- it would be even more bearish.)

**Rod** · 03-04-2006, 03:52 AM

Interesting!

I guarantee I would have been more bullish the past 7 months had I not been deployed for 5 of those months. Now that I have more time, I've been playing "catch up" on getting more of a feel for the market since my TDY return on Jan 23.

God Bless

**FundSurfer** · 03-20-2006, 05:49 PM

As of COB today the dozen leaders averaged distribution would be:

59% G, 5%F, 11%C, 11%S, 14%I

Same dozen as before. I'd call this very bearish.

**MADDOG** · 03-20-2006, 06:07 PM

i to have been watching the tsp guru's;
i call them the guru's based upon the number of views of people;
whether this be right / wrong or indifferent;
at least others think they are worth viewing.

DAKOTA
SPAF
MLK MAN
NNUUTT
OLDSCHOOL
ROD
OCEAN
GRANDMA
NIERBOD
SHOWME
FUNDSURFER
EWGUY
COWBOY
PYREL
TSP TALK
TSPGO
my numbers indicate;
g f c s i
0.62% 0.01% 0.10% 0.12% 0.19%

r/
MADDOG

**mlk_man** · 03-20-2006, 07:14 PM

Well I hope we were all bullish last week!!

Originally Posted by FundSurfer

As of COB today the dozen leaders averaged distribution would be:

59% G, 5%F, 11%C, 11%S, 14%I

Same dozen as before. I'd call this very bearish.

**Robo5555** · 03-20-2006, 08:35 PM

I would add Ichiro to this group. His contributions to the I fund info are great.

**Boots** · 03-20-2006, 09:51 PM

Originally Posted by mlk_man

Well I hope we were all bullish last week!!

I was!

COB Friday I moved 40% back to G though: currently 60% G, 20% C, 20% I. I'm young. I can take plenty of risk, but I like to hold onto the gains I get, too.

**FundSurfer** · 03-21-2006, 01:52 AM

Originally Posted by mlk_man

Well I hope we were all bullish last week!!

I'll go back and look (tommorrow). Some on the list did not make any moves and some on the list did. My expectation is that the list will show more bullish than today. I was very bullish till Friday but I'm not on the list.

**FundSurfer** · 03-21-2006, 01:55 AM

Originally Posted by Robo5555

I would add Ichiro to this group. His contributions to the I fund info are great.

I read Ichiro's post on I-fund as well but he is not posting his moves I don't think. If he is, he did not meet my qualification of being a leader for last year plus a couple others who would have been if they had posted in the beginning of January. To me there is a difference between showing long term success and having a couple good months.

**FundSurfer** · 03-21-2006, 02:01 AM

Originally Posted by MADDOG

i to have been watching the tsp guru's;
i call them the guru's based upon the number of views of people;

Number of views could be caused by a bunch of things. Longevity for one, and frequent post for another. People can see when the last post was and there would be no reason to view if there wasn't something to read. Although, I liked being on your list, I would not add Fundsurfer to my list till there was more history to back it up. Namor and I both have had a good couple months, but we do not have a long term track record of success that the people I chose have.

**FundSurfer** · 03-21-2006, 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by mlk_man

Well I hope we were all bullish last week!!

Last week the group would have been bullish.

25%G 5%F 13%C 31%S 26%I

**mlk_man** · 03-21-2006, 01:16 PM

Cool. The way it's looking this morning, I wish I'd stayed more bearish today than I did. So much for anticipation. I'll most likely move back to safety this morning.